Talented Ludvig Aberg lurks while Adam Scott stalks at Sedgefield

The fight for FedExCup Playoff berths got off to a flying start at the Wyndham Championship but it was a Sedgefield specialist, who already has his post-season berth secured, that stole the show.

Russell Henley revived feelings from two years ago with a sublime opening 8-under 62 as he chases a fourth consecutive top 10 at the Wyndham Championship. Back in 2021 Henley led after rounds 1, 2 and 3 and appeared a surefire winner only to stumble with a Sunday-71 to miss out on a 6-man playoff by one shot.

With a T9 and T5 either side of that performance, it’s pretty clear the four-time PGA TOUR winner enjoys playing at Sedgefield. A win last fall in Mayakoba and a T4 at the Masters has helped move Henley to 32nd in the FedExCup chase, but he has loftier goals and projects as high as 11th if he can secure the win.

He leads by one from Adam Svensson – another fall winner – and Byeong Hun An. Andrew Novak sits two back in fourth with Adam Scott and J.T. Poston sharing fifth, three shots back.

Rain was a huge part of proceedings, seeing the players play lift, clean and place throughout the round. With rain in the forecast overnight and through Friday’s morning rounds, one could expect a similar scenario for Round 2, and as such potential for low scores once more.

The afternoon wave may benefit slightly if the rain stops and leaves a soft, getable golf course, but they’ll be no doubt looking up the leaderboard at the low morning scores regardless.

Here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

+260: Russell Henley (-8, 1st)

+800: Byeong Hun An (-7, T2)

+1000: Adam Svensson (-7, T2)

+1200: J.T. Poston (-5, T5)

+1400: Adam Scott (-5, T5)

+2500: Ludvig Aberg (-4, T7)

+3000: Andrew Novak (-6, 4th)

+3000: Lucas Glover (-4, T7)

But it isn’t just the outright market to focus on here. With players chasing the top 70 in the FedExCup list, certain scenarios are must haves for players to have a chance to advance.

For example, Scott is chasing a top nine finish to have a chance to keep his 100% Playoffs record alive and has put himself in position to do so. His motivation will remain high throughout the four rounds and there are many others like him.

Here’s some I’m keeping my eyes on.

DRAWS

LUDVIG ABERG (+2500 to win, -4 T7)

The next Swedish superstar looked far from a contender at one over through 10 holes before picking up five birdies in his last eight holes to surge into the mix.

The No. 1 from PGA TOUR University after a stellar career at Texas Tech ranked third in Strokes Gained: Putting on Thursday and 25th in SG: Off-the-Tee. I’m expecting improvement on his 83rd ranking in SG: Approach over the final three rounds so the odds represent a chance to get some value.

If he doesn’t win this week – don’t be surprised to see him win during the FedEx Fall series.

J.T. POSTON (+1200 to win, -5 T5)

Plenty of attention is on the other JT as he fights to keep his season alive but it is last week’s runner up in J.T. Poston who intrigues me.

A winner here in 2019 who comes in off the back of three top 10s in a row, Poston is clearly in a positive frame of mind.

When he putts well, he contends, and the 1.292 strokes gained on the greens Thursday is enough to get my attention. He will go out in the morning Friday and fire at pins so this might be the best number you see on him for the rest of the week.

ADAM SCOTT (+125 for a Top 10 at DraftKings)

As one of my picks to win it all pre-tournament I’m not about to back down on the Australian now as he proved the stress of needing a top nine finish wasn’t something he was too anxious about.

Hopefully you are on him at the +3300 pre-tournament odds already, but if not, you can still consider grabbing the +125 for the Top 10 finish he needs to progress into the Playoffs.

Scott ranked fourth in SG: Putting while pacing the morning wave and scrambled well when his irons got a little loose at times.

The reason I’m not going hard on his outright number at +1400 is because Scott will play in the afternoon on Friday and with Henley playing early, there is every chance he could go from three back, to eight back before he hits a shot.

With that knowledge, you can hold off on an outright play until just prior to his tee-time and see just how high the number may have climbed. Scott will chase victory… but he will be mindful of his aggression knowing he must stay close without making major errors.

SHANE LOWRY (+130 for a Top 20 at DraftKings, -2, T35)

Another player who won’t go out until the afternoon wave and as such will have likely slipped down the leaderboard, Lowry needs a top 23 or better finish this week to have a chance to stay alive.

With a Ryder Cup berth on his mind among many other incentives, I can’t see Lowry’s approach game being as bad as it was Thursday.

A player used to wet conditions; he was a surprising 103rd in SG: Approach but I expect a return closer to the 26th he ranks over the season on TOUR.

FADES

RUSSELL HENLEY (+260 to win)

Let’s get this straight right from the get-go. I’m not fading the player here. I’m fading the number. Henley was actually my pick for First Round Leader this week so it comes as no surprise to me that he’s flown out of the blocks.

With his three previous top 10s here over the last three starts and the trend over the last two weeks on TOUR that has seen runaway winners – the +260 to win makes sense from the oddsmakers perspective – but I just can’t advocate jumping in now with three rounds to play.

So much can happen in golf and with more rain expected through the morning Henley could easily find himself in a spot of bother or two on Friday. Of course, he could also throw up a 64 or some such number and set a cracking pace.

Regardless, I say wait another round or two before deciding if you want on the Henley train this week. Because while he has indeed had success at Sedgefield, the other way to look at the last three years is he’s had three good chances to win… and hasn’t.

ANDREW NOVAK (+2500 to win)

Novak put together an awesome opening round in front of family and friends and here’s hoping that the North Carolina native can continue to feed off the partisan crowd.

I just don’t think he can.

On Thursday Novak ranked fourth in SG: Tee to Green, 14th in SG: Approach and SG: Around the Green, 22nd in SG: Off-the-Tee and 30th in SG: Putting.

This season he ranks 78th Tee to Green, 88th on Approach, 58th Around the Green, 110th Off the Tee and 43rd Putting, so a regression to the mean may be on the cards.

At 106th in the FedExCup, he needs to chase a 3-way tie for 2nd or better, but he’s missed four of his last six cuts.