Can anyone put a little heat on Lee Hodges at the 3M Open?

Admit it – you didn’t see this coming.

Even one week after Brian Harman surged from triple-digit longshot to runaway winner at The Open, this was not the expected outcome at the 3M Open. Lee Hodges has gone from relative unknown, priced at +11000 by BetMGM oddsmakers to start the week, to lapping the field at TPC Twin Cities. He’ll take a five-shot lead into the final round as he looks to close out his first PGA TOUR win.

Hodges has been the man to beat all week, taking a one-shot lead after the opening round and stretching it to four at the halfway point. He kept the pedal down Saturday, steadying himself from a nervy start by piling on five back-nine birdies (including a 7-footer at the last) to maintain distance from the pack.

The tournament, at this point, is his to lose.

Updated odds to win the 3M Open (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

-350: Lee Hodges (-20)

+600: J.T. Poston (-15)

+800: Tony Finau (-14)

+5000: Keith Mitchell (-12), Aaron Baddeley (-13)

+6600: Billy Horschel (-12), Kevin Streelman (-12)

+10000: Sam Ryder (-12)

+12500: Nick Hardy (-11)

But we’ve been here before at TPC Twin Cities. Just last year, Scott Piercy took the same five-shot margin into the final round and threw it away in the blink of an eye. After three rounds of 66 or better, he closed with 76 and finished T4.

Can Hodges close things out as the lights get brighter? Likely. But danger lurks around several corners in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, and last year showed how quickly an ample cushion can evaporate. So while I wouldn’t advocate backing up the truck to get in at his current -350 price, given the circumstances of a potential first-time winner fighting back nerves, there are still some opportunities for final-round investments:

Draws

Tony Finau to shoot 67 or better (+120)

The defending champ isn’t giving up the trophy without a fight. Finau enters the final round alone in third place, five shots behind Hodges, a similar position from which he chased down

Piercy a year ago. Finau has gone 67 or better in each of the first three rounds this week, including a third-round 67 that included four birdies over his final eight holes. Finau doesn’t have to worry about long-term TOUR status, or Playoff positioning, which puts him in a strong position among the leaders to focus simply on the task at hand. He’ll likely need some help from Hodges to have a re-enactment of last year’s comeback win, but it’s likely that he’ll do his part by going at least 4 under on the par-71 track to put a little heat on the overnight leader.

Billy Horschel to win (+5000)

It was just a few weeks ago that we saw Sepp Straka come from the heavens to snatch the John Deere Classic title. Could we have a repeat this week a little farther north? It would require a couple stumbles from Hodges, but that’s not unheard of – and Horschel, while in the midst of a lean stretch, has all the veteran moxie to take advantage of an opportunity to win when it appears. At No. 119 in the points race entering the week he’ll still be of a mindset to fire at every flag, and as Straka demonstrated at TPC Deere Run, sometimes that pays off. It’s a longshot price for a longshot outcome, but of those within eight shots of Hodges, I think Horschel presents the most viable upside.

Fade

Sam Ryder (+10000)

At this point of the season, all eyes are on the FedExCup standings. Ryder entered this week in precarious position, sitting at No. 69 with only the top 70 after next week’s Wyndham Championship making it to the Playoffs. He’s in strong position to improve his standing, now projected to No. 61, but I’m concerned he may try to protect the points in the final round. For a player of Ryder’s standing, making the Playoffs – and potentially advancing among the top 50 to the BMW Championship and unlocking entry into 2024 designated events – is a huge incentive. So I expect he’ll be looking to preserve his position, which can be a tricky strategy on a water-laden track like TPC Twin Cities. Don’t be afraid to look to fade Ryder in head-to-head matchups once prices are posted.