Tony Finau can bring deja vu to 3M Open

A year ago, Tony Finau came from the clouds to win the 3M Open. Perhaps it is his destiny to do so again.

It wouldn’t be summer golf without the odd thunderstorm… right?

The second round of the 3M Open was interrupted Friday afternoon for almost two hours with a dangerous weather scenario but the break didn’t stop defending champion Finau making a move, nor Lee Hodges from setting the pace at TPC Twin Cities.

Hodges, in his second full TOUR season entered the week at 74th in the FedExCup with just two weeks to go to secure a top 70 position for the FedExCup Playoffs. A win at the 3M Open would more than suffice!

In his rookie season Hodges was T16 at TPC Twin Cities but he looks set to better than this season after rounds of 63 and 64 moved him to 15 under for the tournament.

He leads by four from Tyler Duncan (64-67) at 11 under while Finau is joined by Kevin Streelman, J.T. Poston and Brandt Snedeker in a tie for third at 10 under.

Here are the latest odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

+160: Lee Hodges (-15, 1st)

+550: Tony Finau (-10, T3)

+1100: J.T. Poston (-10, T3)

+1200: Emiliano Grillo (-9, T7)

+1400: Hideki Matsuyama (-8, T10)

+1800: Tyler Duncan (-11, 2nd)

+2000: Kevin Streelman (-10, T3)

+2500: Billy Horschel (-9, T7)

It’s a quick turnaround tomorrow with a handful of players needing to return to finish the second round before the third round but, if you’re quick, here is who you might want to look at heading into Saturday.

DRAWS

TONY FINAU (+550, -10, T3)

Finau is by far the most talented player left in the field and is the defending champion who clearly knows what it takes to get it done at TPC Twin Cities. He won’t be spooked into trying to chase Hodges too hard, too early, and the reality is he’s in the mix without his best stuff off the tee. He was well behind Scott Piercy a year ago and watched Piercy melt on Sunday.

Finau has lost strokes to the average off the tee in the opening two rounds, ranking 95th in the field. He ranks 40th on TOUR this season so there is hope he will dial it in on the range in the morning and be even more deadly.

EMILIANO GRILLO (+1200, -9, T7)

I liked him better at four behind rather than six but the fact remains Grillo finished T3 in 2020 and T2 last year at the 3M Open yet you can still get double digits to one that he could add a win at this venue. He’s also coming off a T6 at the Open Championship last week and was a winner at the Charles Schwab Challenge earlier this season.

While he’s got ground to make up, given the leader hasn’t won on the TOUR before, it is certainly possible having the experience under pressure will come in handy.

FADES

LEE HODGES (+160, -15, 1st)

There is no doubt Hodges has been the best player through 36 holes – he’s been brilliant. And the 28-year-old Alabama product has the skillset to win on TOUR. But when I see a price this low with 36 holes to play it better be on someone who is a proven winner for me to bite.

Hodges is yet to make a bogey, an incredible effort. But he ranks 97th on TOUR this season in Bogey Avoidance, so we can’t expect that level of excellence to continue. And here’s a look at his main Strokes Gained ranks this week against the season.

As you can see, he’s punching above his weight class in every capacity. If things fall off slightly, his mental game will need to be at its peak.

Again, this is his tournament to control, but if you weren’t on him at higher odds, I wouldn’t be jumping on now. You might see a Brian Harman like domination – but the risk isn’t worth the reward at this point.