Hideki Matsuyama poised to ride a hot putter to hardware at 3M Open

The opening round of the 3M Open saw plenty of low numbers, chip-ins, hole-outs – and yes, a broken 9-iron. Defending champion Tony Finau sprinted out of the gate this morning, 5 under through his first four holes, and seemed like he would be the one to chase after the day was done. However, he hit some road bumps and finished the rest of the round even par.

Instead it was Lee Hodges who rattled off a measly eight birdies and posted a 63, just one better than the group at 7 under that included former Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama, former FedExCup champ Brandt Snedeker, Tyler Duncan and Kevin Streelman. Lurking at 6 under is Korn Ferry Tour star turned PGA TOUR member, Justin Suh, a very in-form Emiliano Grillo, and Nick Hardy who birdied the 18th in a fashion unlike anything we have seen on TOUR this season. Plenty still in striking distance: Tony Finau, Billy Horschel, Adam Svensson and Vincent Norrman are among the group at 5 under.

Updated odds to win 3M Open (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+450: Hideki Matsuyama

+900: Emiliano Grillo

+1000: Tony Finau

+1100: Lee Hodges

+2000: J.T. Poston, Justin Suh, Kevin Streelman

+2500: J.J. Spaun

+2800: Vincent Norrman

+3000: Nick Hardy

Hodges was among the morning wave that got the better of the conditions on Thursday, as the wind picked up in the afternoon which gave way to some higher scores for later wave. With the course favoring the early wave, those that shot 3 or 4 under this afternoon (when storms suspended play overnight) are still just one real solid round away from being in contention for the weekend.

Here are the guys to keep an eye on the rest of the way at TPC Twin Cities, with odds via BetMGM:

Draws

Hideki Matsuyama (+450)

With scattered thunderstorms a likelihood throughout the week, players should expect the balls to stick and the scoring to flow. Matsuyama was blemish-free today and played one of his better opening rounds in recent memory. You have to go back to the AT&T Byron Nelson this year to find a Thursday round of 67 or lower, and today’s 64 is his lowest opening round of the season. Matsuyama has yet to win on TOUR this season and a lot of that can be pointed to the putter (121th in SG: Putting). But the best way to improve that is to get it as close to the pin as possible, and being inside the top 15 in both SG: Approach and Around the Green is exactly the way to do so. Matsuyama is a hot putter away from lifting a trophy.

Justin Suh (+2000)

Suh was a ball-striking machine today and nearly had the shot of the day with a near-ace on No. 13 that hit the bottom of the flagstick and rolled out to about 8 feet, where he cleaned up for his birdie. Suh is a guy that, prior to this week, was not on many people’s radars (or bet slips) because he is not explosive off the tee: 114th on TOUR in SG: Off-the-Tee, which has proven to be the recipe at TPC Twin Cities. That is just fine, because all Suh did today was stripe irons and hit putts. He has the finishes this season to back up his play today, and if the wind keeps up his skillset is fit for a run this weekend.

Fades

Tony Finau (+1000)

Out in 30 and six-under through the back nine, he looked more than primed to post the low score of the day. However, he missed a 7-footer on No. 2 and hit a very errant tee-shot on No. 7, after which he was extremely lucky to get out with a bogey following a world-class chip-in. Finau understands the pressure to perform, not only the last couple of weeks prior to the FedExCup Playoffs, but also in the postseason if he wants one of those six sought-after captain’s picks for the Ryder Cup. Not to say he won’t finish well, but repeat winners on TOUR are hard to come by.

Brandt Snedeker (+5000)

Do the odds not seem to match the score? Well, there’s a reason for that. The recently healthy 42-year-old has missed four straight cuts prior to this week, then he goes out and shoots a bogey-free 64. Isn’t golf just amazing? Snedeker has always been a real easy golfer to pull for and a real easy guy to watch. The fact of the matter is, he is going to have to out-run a lot of horses this week, and he just doesn’t have the same kick.

Justin Thomas (+5000)

What do Justin Thomas and Brandt Snedeker have in common, aside from winning a FedExCup? They both have yet to win this season. There’s no question that Thomas has had his struggles this year, and similarly to Finau, there has been plenty Ryder Cup buzz with his name in it. He’s also still outside the top 70 that qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs. Thomas knows his back is against the wall here, or he would not have been playing this week or next week at the Wyndham Championship. With that comes the weight of performance, and JT has simply not had that lately. Everyone can question what is wrong with his game, but truthfully it just does not look like he is having any fun at the moment. I want to pick golfers that are having a remotely good time out there, so I’ll be looking elsewhere.