Expected conditions could help Brian Harman inch closer to The Open title at Hoylake

We've got a real dandy of a battle going on at The Open at Royal Liverpool — for second place, that is.

The low American after Thursday's opening round was Brian Harman at 4 under par. Harman shot a 6-under 65 Friday and not only remains the low American but is leading the 151st Open Championship by a whopping five shots at the halfway point. Harman's 65 was the low round of the day and more than 8.5 shots better than the field average on Friday at Hoylake.

England's Tommy Fleetwood saved par at the 18th hole to secure his spot in the final group with Harman on Saturday. Fleetwood was a part of a three-way tie for First Round Leader on Thursday, shooting a 5-under 66. He shot an even-par 71 Friday to remain at 5 under for the championship.

Coming off a win at the John Deere Classic, Sepp Straka is six shots back at 4 under. Min Woo Lee shot 68 on Friday to get to 3 under. Fellow Australian Jason Day shot 67 on Friday to tie Lee at 3 under. Four players are at 2-under par, including 2017 Open champion Jordan Spieth and last year's runner-up, Cameron Young. Another 14 players are in red figures at 1-under, including Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, U.S. Open Champion Wyndham Clark, and Royal Liverpool member Matthew Jordan.

Updated odds to win The Open (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+150: Brian Harman

+450: Tommy Fleetwood

+1100: Rory McIlroy

+1600: Jordan Spieth

+1800: Jason Day, Min Woo Lee, Sepp Straka

+2500: Cameron Young

+3500: Wyndham Clark

+4000: Max Homa

+4500: Viktor Hovland

It’s very possible that Harman's name is already being carved into the claret jug. Both Tiger Woods (2006) and Rory McIlroy (2014) both held the 36-hole lead and went on to win at Hoylake. Since 1892, 19 players have held a 36-hole lead of five shots or more in any major championship. Only four of those 19 failed to go on to win. Of the last 18 Open Championship winners, only two players were not in the top 10 on the leaderboard after Round 1.

Harman was tied for second at the end of play on Thursday. Each of the last 10 Open champions has been ranked in the top 40 of the OWGR. Harman came into the week ranked 26th. And finally, courtesy of our friend Justin Ray on Twitter, Harman is currently gaining better than 14.7 strokes on this field through 36 holes. The last player to have gained a larger margin of strokes than that was Rory McIlroy here at Royal Liverpool in 2014, when he had gained 15.1 strokes on the field at the halfway point.

With the way the weather forecast looks, it seems this golf course may only get easier. It is expected to rain overnight and then the forecast shows off and on rain through Sunday's conclusion. While the moisture will soften up the golf course it looks as if the wind could be calming somewhat too - not too significantly, but maybe down a notch from what we have seen so far. We noted the historical advantages for Harman, and this expected weather also plays into his hands as it lessens the chance for the carnage that a firm, fast, windy, golf course could bring.

Even if the course and conditions become easier, will Harman maintain this pace? With 14.73 total strokes gained on the field and over 8 strokes gained putting - it is not likely that will be sustained. But, with the expected weather, it is not likely that Harman will come crashing down so hard that multiple players surge back into contention, either.

So what do we do at "halftime?" Who do we bet on and who do we bet against? Here are my thoughts on how things will go in England, with odds via BetMGM:

Draws

Brian Harman (+150)

Believe it or not, I actually feel this is probably the best value price on the board. Will Harman win The Open? I would say probably so - he might not - but again, I think this price, as short as it is, is more than fair and is in the bettor's favor. We've seen this recently on the PGA TOUR. When a player has a significant lead in an event where the scoring and the conditions are easy, it makes that player very difficult to catch. The chasers want chaos, they want bad weather, they want conditions to be such that make it very difficult for the leader to maintain their advantage. You never know with seaside locations what the weather will do but as I noted earlier, what the forecast is telling us is that the most difficult scoring days at this championship may be in our rearview mirror.

Fades

Max Homa (+4000)

Homa (-1) played great golf on Thursday but gave two shots back on Friday, and that could be just the beginning. I'm not necessarily saying he is going to fall apart and continue to shoot rounds over par. He may even make up a little ground, as he is playing well on approach and off the tee. But truly, his odds of coming back and winning this championship ought to probably be at least double of what they are. There are a handful of other players tied with Homa at 1 under who are listed at +20000, +25000, or as high as +50000. Homa’s +4000 price is just not juicy enough to take a chance. Currently tied for 11th, I do believe he has a good chance of finishing Top 20 – and that would be a much better bet to make in my opinion.

Shubhankar Sharma (+12500)

I believe the oddsmakers are telling us something here with this big price. They are not believing in his chances, either. Jason Day and Min Woo Lee are tied with Sharma and their current prices are both at +1800. That is a glaring difference. Sharma is ranked 276th in the OWGR and has missed his last three cuts coming into this championship. His stroke average ranks 108th on the DP World Tour and he's 122nd in Greens in Regulation. This is uncharted waters for the young man that just celebrated his 27th birthday on Friday, and I have a feeling that the party may not last too long.

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