Expect Adam Schenk to rise above crowded John Deere leaderboard

With one round to go in the Quad Cities, the John Deere Classic is just about as wide open as it was before Thursday’s opening tee shot was struck.

It’s been a revolving door atop the odds board at TPC Deere Run, with several players holding the top spot during a tumultuous third round. Overnight leader Cameron Young started slowly, allowing the likes of Adam Schenk, Denny McCarthy and Alex Smalley to all move into the position of betting favorite.

When the dust settled in Silvis, though, the player with the shortest odds at BetMGM Sportsbook is also the man clinging to a one-shot lead against a crowded leaderboard: Brendon Todd, who moved up the standings with a third-round 66 and now sits in the pole position as he looks for PGA TOUR win No. 4. He actually shares co-favorite status through 54 holes with McCarthy, who lost to Viktor Hovland last month at the Memorial.

But Todd is hardly alone among the players with title aspirations: McCarthy and Schenk both sit one shot off the lead, hoping to break through after recent playoff losses, while Smalley made the day’s biggest move with a 62. Even Young, who rinsed his final approach en route to a closing double bogey that dropped him three shots back, still has a viable path to a maiden victory.

Updated odds to win the John Deere Classic (via BetMGM)

+350: Brendon Todd (-16)

+350: Denny McCarthy (-15)

+500: Adam Schenk (-15), Alex Smalley (-15)

+1400: Cameron Young (-13)

+1600: Peter Kuest (-14)

+2000: Chris Kirk (-13)

+2500: Lucas Glover (-13)

+2800: J.T. Poston (-13)

The top 15 players will tee off Sunday within four shots of the lead, a gap that can be eliminated in a moment’s notice on a layout that delivered everything from eagles to others in the third round. Here’s a look at the players I have an eye on – as well as those whose odds might be too short given the circumstances:

Draws

Adam Schenk (+500, T-2, one shot back)

I continue to believe that Schenk will soon get his watershed win, and this is another opportunity to fly the flag. A runner-up at the Valspar Championship and hard-luck playoff loser at Colonial in May, Schenk is once again in the mix after three straight rounds of 67 or better. He tied a tournament record by playing his first 47 holes without dropping a shot, and his bogey Saturday on No. 12 is his only one thus far this week.

Schenk is doing everything right at the moment: fifth in the field in SG: Approach, sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green, 13th in SG: Putting. He’ll need to remain aggressive, as the winning score will likely hit or eclipse 20 under. But he has all the shots in the bag, and after hard-earned lessons at Valspar and Colonial I think he has what it takes to convert another chance in contention into a victory.

J.T. Poston (+2800, T-6, three shots back)

If you’re looking to toss a proverbial dart, you could do worse than backing the defending champion at only a slightly lower price than his pre-tournament odds. Poston made a bit of an early move Saturday, opening with four straight birdies en route to a 6-under 65 that was his best of the week and brought him within three shots of Todd.

Poston will likely need to better that score Sunday, but he has no problem going low as evidenced by his win here last year and his previous triumph at the Wyndham Championship when he went 72 holes without a bogey. The veteran has been known to endure some cold stretches but also makes the most of his windows when everything is clicking, and this week could be another of those opportunities as he’s back on a course with some great memories and currently fourth in the field in SG: Putting through 54 holes.

Poston played defense last year during the final round en route to an easy win, but it’ll need to be all gas and no brakes Sunday if he wants a chance to repeat. With several players above him on the leaderboard dealing with magnified nerves in search of win No. 1, this could be a great chance for him to slide up the standings and retain the trophy.

Fade

Alex Smalley (+500, T-2, one shot back)

This is a qualitative take, not a quantitative one. Smalley fired the low round of the week Saturday, a 9-under 62 that briefly gave him sole possession of the lead. He leads the field in both SG: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green. After briefly batting with the cut line, he has played his last 31 holes in 13 under. Everything is clicking.

But can the former Duke product stand up to the heat of Sunday’s final pairing? Smalley will go toe-to-toe with Todd in the anchor time, aiming to follow up a low round which is usually easier said than done. He’ll also have to keep an eye on McCarthy and Schenk ahead of him, among other possible contenders, while battling the nerves of seeking a breakthrough win.

Smalley finished T9 last month at the Travelers, but that is his only top-15 result since November. His performance on the greens – T29 in SG: Putting through 54 holes – is a huge improvement over his season-long stats (147th).

All told, I expect some regression out of Smalley given the circumstances and understand why McCarthy is a shorter price despite sitting on the same score. Any of the top four players on the board have the game to win this event, but of the quartet it’s Smalley’s name that would most surprise me to see etched into the hardware Sunday afternoon.

The PGA TOUR is committed to protecting our fans. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling operates a confidential toll-free hotline that you can reach by phone or text at 1-800-522-4700.