Make Your Case: Can Rickie Fowler close out a Motor City breakthrough?

DETROIT – As the clouds cleared and the sun reappeared at a suddenly soft Detroit Golf Club, Rickie Fowler broke free from the pack and established himself as the man to beat heading into the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

The leaderboard was more jam-packed than nearby Woodward Avenue when third-round play was halted with the leaders through only a handful of holes. More than a dozen players were within two shots of the lead, and the target number at the end of the day was anyone’s guess.

A few hours later, Fowler stuffed his final approach to be the first to reach 20 under this week. He’ll take a one-shot lead into the final round after a 64 that included five birdies over his final six holes.

Entering the week as the largest pre-tournament liability at BetMGM Sportsbook amid an avalanche of public action, he’s now down to -110 to get his first win in more than four years.

Updated odds to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic (via BetMGM)

-110: Rickie Fowler

+360: Adam Hadwin

+750: Taylor Pendrith

+1200: Aaron Rai

+1600: Collin Morikawa

+2800: Taylor Moore

+3300: Peter Kuest

Closest in pursuit of Fowler are a pair of Canadians: Adam Hadwin made the day’s biggest move, tying the course record with a 9-under 63 to sit one shot back, while Taylor Pendrith started the day with a share of the lead and now finds himself two shots behind Fowler.

There’s an extra variable in the mix Sunday, as an ominous weather forecast has led officials to move up tee times. It’ll be an early start for the leaders, and there’s a strong chance that Saturday’s rain delay won’t be the last of the week.

So let’s take a look at the pros and cons of each of the top contenders, with an eye on discerning who is most likely to lift the trophy in the Motor City:

Rickie Fowler (-110, -20, Leads by 1)

Pro: Fowler made his move at a critical juncture Saturday afternoon, spinning six birdies in his last eight holes to not only catch but overtake the leaders. He’s been trending toward a watershed win for months, with nine top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts and near-misses each of the last two weeks. His relationship with this tournament and its title sponsor is well-documented, and he appears at peace inside the ropes. What’s more, his game is firing on all cylinders: Fowler leads the field in SG: Approach and sits second in SG: Tee to Green.

Con: Four years is a long time, and Fowler has had a tough time closing it out in recent weeks – notably his final round slide at the U.S. Open. It’s hard to play with a target on your back at a course like this, where there will be birdie roars aplenty and he might not still have the lead by the time he tees off. Fowler has been a fan favorite (and oddsmaker’s nightmare) all week long, but he’ll need to keep the pedal down Sunday to close the deal.

Adam Hadwin (+360, -19, 2nd)

Pro: Have a (Canada) Day, Adam Hadwin. He could do no wrong Saturday at Detroit GC, firing a 63 to make a monster move after starting the day +3300 at BetMGM. Known more in recent weeks for being tackled at the RBC Canadian Open than anything he’s done inside the ropes, his short game has been on fire: he’s second in SG: Around the Green and leading the field in SG: Putting.

Con: Similar to Fowler, it’s been a while since Hadwin got in the winner’s circle – six years, to be exact. His recent form has also been somewhat spotty, with just one top-30 finish in his last nine starts. Hadwin’s short-game success this week is also a bit of an outlier, given he is 45th in SG: Putting this season and 89th in SG: Around the Green. It’s hard to back up a good round on TOUR, and regression could loom for Saturday’s low man.

Taylor Pendrith (+750, -18, 3rd)

Pro: Of the top three contenders, I believe there is the most upside on Pendrith. A runner-up a year ago, he’s looking to be the third player this year (Jon Rahm at Sentry, Tony Finau in Mexico) to follow with a win the following year. His prodigious length is an asset around this place, and there’s minimal penalty for when the driver strays. He’s complementing that length with accurate irons, ranking third this week in SG: Approach. Unlike some of the others in conention, Pendrith won’t need a red-hot putter to sink his maiden TOUR victory. An above average day, like the ones he had in the first two rounds, could be enough. Plus, this is a place where we have seen breakthrough winners.

Con: The tee time changes mean that Pendrith will have a spot in the final group alongside Fowler and Hadwin, which could allow him to keep tabs on his top competition – but could also raise the stakes exponentially for a player seeking his first win. The crowds will undoubtedly be behind Fowler, and he need only look to Ludvig Aberg to see how quickly things can slide while playing alongside the fan favorite. Pendrith also could be limited if steady rains fall and affect his ability to implement his biggest weapon off the tee.

Don’t forget about…

Yes, it’s likely that the winner comes from the final trio. Based on implied probability, there’s a better than 85 percent chance that the name etched on the Rocket Mortgage Trophy is Fowler, Hadwin or Pendrith.

But two other players are worth a potential flier: Collin Morikawa (+1600) could absolutely come from behind after a middling third round that dropped him four shots off the pace. Morikawa made only one birdie over his last 11 holes as his typically reliable iron play failed to yield many birdie chances. But that is likely to improve in the final round, and while he’ll need an often balky putter to cooperate he absolutely has the game to fire a 64 (or lower) in the final round.

And don’t forget about Monday qualifier Peter Kuest (+3300). Kuest played alongside Hadwin Saturday and the two combined to shoot 16 under. Not bad. He has found his footing after turning heads while grabbing a share of the opening-round lead, and now has two rounds of 65 or lower. It seems unlikely, but another lights-out performance could allow the +35000 pre-tournament longshot to become the highest-priced winner on TOUR since Jim Herman shocked the field to win the 2020 Wyndham Championship.

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