Ball-striking prowess of Collin Morikawa could pay dividends in Detroit

So far, all is going according to plan at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit. The weather has behaved, the golf course is playing as expected, and some of the pre-tournament favorites are in the mix at the halfway point.

Colin Morikawa is at 11 under, just two shots off the pace. Former champion, Cam Davis, is three shots back at 10 under. Big-hitting Taylor Pendrith, is tied for the lead at 13 under and the highly acclaimed TOUR rookie and popular betting choice this week, Ludvig Aberg, is just one back at 12 under.

Finally, Rickie Fowler, the man who was at the top of the odds board coming in this week, sits just one shot off the 36-hole lead at 12 under par. It was just last September that Fowler dropped to a career low 185th in the OWGR. He is now ranked 35th and possibly on the verge of winning again on TOUR for the first time in nearly four and a half years. He remains atop the odds board after two rounds and is the favorite to capture the title this week at +375 according to BetMGM oddsmakers.

Updated odds to win (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+375: Rickie Fowler

+650: Taylor Moore

+700: Collin Morikawa, Taylor Pendrith, Ludvig Aberg

+1600: Adam Schenk

+1800: Aaron Rai

+2000: Cam Davis

+2500: Sepp Straka

Taylor Moore, who won the Valspar Championship back in March, shares the lead with Pendrith. Moore had missed three straight cuts coming into this tournament. After showing some signs of promise last week in Connecticut, Justin Thomas, struggled here for two days and missed the cut, as did Hideki Matsuyama and defending champion, Tony Finau.

But how will things shake out going forward? Another item that is right on schedule currently is the score of 13 under. The winning score proposition bet this week was 24.5 under par. Moore and Pendrith are on pace to get to 26-under par, matching Finau's winning score of last year.

Only five shots separating those tied for 19th and the two players tied for the lead. That is quite the log jam and I'm sensing we have quite a bit of reshuffling of this deck before a winner emerges on Sunday afternoon. If one can find it, it could be an opportune time to take a shot at a plus money price, that this tournament WILL GO to a playoff. Prior to the tournament teeing off, that price was +325.

With Keegan Bradley and Denny McCarthy owning a two-shot advantage last week heading into the weekend at the Travelers Championship, it was a clearer picture as to who might walk away with the trophy. We liked both players’ chances in this column, and Bradley got it done. This week the waters are a bit muddier but I have landed on two players who I believe have the best shot coupled with the fairest price and one player that I believe will come up short.

DRAWS

Collin Morikawa (+700)

The price is maybe just a hair short - and much of that is based on reputation - but I like the way this sets up for Morikawa given the way he came into the week. He finished 14th at the U.S. Open two weeks ago, recording three straight rounds in the 60's to close that championship. He missed the cut last week at the Travelers but shot a 63 in his second round before coming up one shot shy of advancing to the weekend.

He has been very consistent here so far, shooting a 66 and a 67. As expected, his accuracy off the tee and iron play has been excellent. He has gained strokes on the field putting but it hasn't been so far to the positive that it would lead us to think regression is coming. In fact, it may only get better and if that's the case, he ought to be right there come Sunday.

Adam Schenk (+1600)

Schenk is tied with Morikawa at 11 under, but we are getting more than twice the price. Everything he has been doing through two rounds has been very solid - but again, nothing so far off the charts in one direction that would signal possible regression. I also like the fact that Schenk has been through the grind at the top of the leaderboard a few times already this season. He finished second to Taylor Moore at the Valspar. He took seventh at the Memorial and lost in a playoff at the Charles Schwab Challenge. All of those near-miss experiences should help him find his way again over the weekend and maybe, finally, to the winner’s circle.

FADES

Ludvig Aberg (+700)

Aberg is the new kid on the block. A big-hitting Swede, who played collegiately at Texas Tech and twice won the Ben Hogan award for best college golfer in America. Aberg has played in four TOUR events this season but this is only his third as a professional. He was fancied by many this week at pre-tournament odds of +5000 or less.

He has certainly given those bettors hope, sitting just one shot off the pace heading into the weekend but I wonder if he won't cool off at some point, given what he's been doing so far through the first two days. No surprise, he's been tremendous off the tee. He is No. 1 in this field through two days for both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy. That is quite the lethal combination. But, he ranks 57th in this field for SG: Approach and 59th for SG: Putting. If he remains shaky in these two key areas, I don't think he can win this tournament with his driver alone. This combined with his lack of experience has me feeling his first PGA TOUR victory will have to wait.

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