Consistency could yield a breakthrough win for Adam Schenk at Colonial

The worst place to be Saturday at the Charles Schwab Challenge was in the lead.

Harry Hall started the day with a three-shot cushion. At one point Emiliano Grillo then built a two-shot advantage. Harris English made a late birdie to pull away from the pack. They all eventually lost the pole position.

It was a topsy-turvy day at Colonial Country Club, where Hall and Adam Schenk now share the lead as both men look for their first win on the PGA TOUR. “Hogan’s Alley” proved a stern test in the third round, as the par-70 layout vexed the likes of Hall, Grillo and pre-tournament favorite Scottie Scheffler – who all carded rounds of 2-over 72.

There’s a clear delineation at the top after English (one shot back), but with nine players within five shots of the lead the race for the plaid jacket remains wide-open in the Lone Star State.

Updated odds to win Charles Schwab Challenge (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+230: Adam Schenk (-10)

+250: Harris English (-9)

+300: Harry Hall (-10)

+2000: Viktor Hovland (-5)

+2200: Emiliano Grillo (-6), Scottie Scheffler (-4)

+2800: Justin Suh (-6)

Hall rebounded from back-to-back double bogeys on Nos. 6 and 7 to play bogey-free the rest of the way, and he shares the top spot with Schenk who rolled in a birdie on No. 18 to snag a spot in Sunday’s final pairing.

Here’s a look at some of my thoughts and angles heading into the final round in Fort Worth:

Draws

Adam Schenk (+230)

Sometimes gains are made incrementally. Schenk has put forth some solid results, notably at the Valspar Championship where he held the lead deep into the final round only to be outrun by Taylor Moore. The hard-earned lessons at Innisbrook could prove pivotal as Schenk looks to close things out on a similar track.

Schenk is 13th or better in each of the four main Strokes Gained categories, highlighted by a fifth-place showing in SG: Tee-to-Green. He has picked up more than seven shots on the field with his ball-striking, and it’s a big reason why he is in the mix for a breakthrough victory. The new dad has also been consistent this week, with three straight rounds of 67 or better and only three bogeys through 54 holes.

Schenk now knows the pressures of the final pairing after his near-miss in Tampa two months ago, and that could give him an edge over a co-leader in Hall who is even more inexperienced. English feels like the guy to keep an eye on among the top trio, but Schenk did everything right Saturday to get into the lead without really having a particularly outlandish performance. It sets up well as he gets another shot at the trophy on Sunday.

Justin Suh (+2800)

How pivotal was that bogey on No. 18? We may find out quickly when Suh gets his final round going, but it still feels like he’s presenting some value among the mid-range prospects beyond the top three contenders.

Only four shots off the lead – and critically with only three names above his on the leaderboard – Suh hasn’t missed a step after a strong performance at the PGA Championship. Saturday’s 66 included only one bogey, an ill-timed blemish on the home hole, but he was still fourth in the field in SG: Approach and second in SG: Putting. A similar performance could set him up well to take advantage of another round of stumbles from the leaders, and I like that Suh is paired with English in the penultimate group as opposed to Grillo, his compatriot at 6 under who will play with Viktor Hovland. Suh is priced higher than both of them, and I’ll give him the nod as a player who could post a 65 or 66 and wait to see if chaos comes his way amid a leaderboard somewhat short on experience.

Fade

Harry Hall (+300)

Hall’s comeback from the brink was pretty remarkable. Starting the day three shots clear, he had a disastrous hour and dropped four shots in two holes to seemingly give up any chance of a breakthrough victory as his odds drifted into the +1200 range. But the Englishman battled back, didn’t drop a shot the rest of the way and now shares the lead with Schenk while being offered at roughly the same price he had while the man to beat at the halfway point. But in looking at the numbers, I’ve got to look the other way on the PGA TOUR rookie.

Among the 72 players who made the cut, Hall was 64th in SG: Approach and 61st around the greens. Yes, those figures were largely weighed down by his struggles on Nos. 6 and 7, but it’s still been a clear trend since Hall burst into contention with an opening-round 62. The longer this goes, the more likely it is that Hall will play his way back to the pack – as he largely did Saturday afternoon. With Schenk walking stride-for-stride and an accomplished winner in English just one shot off the pace, not to mention the likes of Hovland and Scheffler who could drop a 64 at a moment’s notice, I’m not a believer that Hall will be able to turn around his ball-striking overnight. If anything, his molten-hot putter – which leads the field through 54 holes – could cool and leave him in a tough spot in the final round.

Hall has been one of the biggest stories of the week, and he has clearly overachieved his starting price. But I remain skeptical that he’ll find a way to turn this into a maiden win.

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