Good luck to those trying to catch Scottie Scheffler at the Byron Nelson

Early in the week, the forecast called for scattered thundershowers on each of the four days in McKinney, TX., the host city of the AT&T Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. We are yet to see too much taking place during play other than some wind kicking up a little bit on Friday. Saturday, however, looks like it will be a tough bullet to dodge as the precipitation is supposed to come overnight, all day long, and even well into Sunday. Saturday is calling for better than an 80% chance of moisture with Sunday's chances being listed at better than 50%.

Nothing has bothered world No. 2 and local Dallas-area resident, Scottie Scheffler as he has shot back-to-back 64's to take a one-shot lead over Mackenzie Hughes and Ryan Palmer at 14 under. Scheffler was the pre-tournament favorite at +400. Through 36 holes, he's now down to -175 at BetMGM Sportsbook to notch what would be his third win this season and seventh of his young career.

Updated odds to win (via BetMGM)

-175: Scottie Scheffler

+800: Mackenzie Hughes

+900: Ryan Palmer

+1400: Si Woo Kim

+2200: Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day

+4500: Sam Stevens

+5000: Adam Scott, Tyrrell Hatton

In the last couple of years, as Scheffler has ascended to elite status on TOUR, his best work has come against the best competition. Designated events, World Golf Championships, major championships - in your standard, week-to-week TOUR events is when Scheffler has been much more human. That is not the case this week, so far.

Even though the chance for rain is great, it does not look like there will be too much wind. 10-12 MPH on Saturday and even less on Sunday is what is being forecasted. What is already a soft golf course, will likely get softer. Keeping one's ball in the fairway will be even easier and so will holding the greens on approach. With the added moisture and the wind seemingly waning, barring any extended weather delays, it looks like the relatively easy scoring will continue, if not even increase - and that doesn't necessarily bode well for those players trying to catch Scottie Scheffler.

It is possible that this, too, may benefit Scheffler and that is the fact that players on Saturday will go off in threesomes between 9:15 and 11:30 a.m. CT off of both Nos. 1 and No. 10 tees. What this creates is less chance for players getting an early start on "Moving Day" to make a run and post a number for Scheffler to see. Everyone will essentially be playing at the same time and that could lessen the chances for anything that could possibly distract the tournament leader. The TOUR is handling Saturday as such because of the impending weather.

Here's a look at players and angles that have my eye at the halfway point, with odds via BetMGM:

Draws

Scottie Scheffler (-175)

It is often tough to swallow laying a price only halfway through a golf tournament but we witnessed a similar situation three weeks ago in Mexico at Vidanta Vallarta when Tony Finau was trading at a similar number after just two rounds. We wrote, right here in this column, that he was a "Draw" even at the short number. Finau went on to win without too much pressure from the chasers. Scheffler did have a few hiccups in his opening round on Thursday, but he's really steadied the ship and nothing stands out as a red flag in his current stats. He's just really solid across the board and not too far off the beam in any area to cause concern for regression. Heck, that's Scottie's game, isn't it? He rarely makes the big mistake, he leads the TOUR in Bogey Avoidance - and when he does make a bogey, he's third on TOUR in Bounce Back.

He's not one that is easy to be rooting against because he rarely strays too far off the straight and narrow. The putter was very average on Thursday and definitely improved on Friday but I don't see anything getting so bad that he's going to come back to the pack in a big way. It will have to be the chasers at the top of the board doing something remarkable rather than Scheffler falling apart in my opinion. Will he win for sure? No, but I'd be surprised if he wasn't the favorite deep into Sunday.

Si Woo Kim (+1400)

If we are going to take a bit of a flyer, this would be my guy. With scoring being on the easier side and the probability of our leader taking a hard fall being slim, I don't want to go down the board too much further. Someone at eight or nine under could shoot a 63 or better, but is Scheffler going to shoot anything worse than 68 or 69? Anyone lower on the leaderboard than Kim, will likely have to shoot two unusually low rounds to catch - and surpass - the leaders. Kim hasn't even really had his best stuff through two rounds, yet he's still managed to shoot 65-66 and only make two bogeys total.

He is missing a lot of greens in regulation - currently 77th in the field for GIR - but is first in Scrambling. Everything else looks pretty good. If he's able to sharpen the irons a little bit over the weekend and hit greens in regulation, he could make a run. Mackenzie Hughes is an excellent putter but he lost nearly a stroke and a half to the field on approach on Friday. I don't like to rely on a putter, especially over two days, to get us home. This is Scheffler's tournament to lose. The price is indicating a nearly 64% chance that he will go on to win. If there is someone out there that is going to catch Scheffler, I don't mind +1400 with Kim who is only three shots back.

Fades

Adam Scott (+5000)

The price looks attractive but the truth is, Scott should probably be at least +10000 to win this golf tournament. He's been very erratic through the first two days. He is losing nearly two strokes to the field on approach, ranks 110th in the field for Greens in Regulation, and even with the soft, wide fairways, still ranks 78th for Driving Accuracy. Scott is six shots off the lead and has 24 other players either tied with him or ahead of him on the leaderboard. It would have to be a crazy, crazy turnaround for him to even make it into the final group on Sunday. He is currently tied for 14th and I wouldn't be surprised if he misses finishing Top 20.

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