Tommy Fleetwood leads but big names lurk on Wells Fargo leaderboard

CHARLOTTE, N.C. – The race to beat the setting sun ended in a split decision Thursday at the Wells Fargo Championship.

One decorated player scooped the First Round Leader pot, while another will head into the second round as the outright betting favorite despite struggling to the finish line.

The Green Mile nipped Xander Schauffele Thursday, as a two-shot lead evaporated after a pair of bogeys over his final three holes. Schauffele finished with a 5-under 66, one shot behind England’s Tommy Fleetwood (65) who snagged the outright lead at Quail Hollow thanks to birdies on Nos. 17 and 18.

The big names are starting to surface, as expected in a designated event, but it’s Schauffele who has edged ahead of the star-studded pack in the eyes of oddsmakers at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Updated odds to win (via BetMGM)

+600: Xander Schauffele

+700: Rory McIlroy

+750: Patrick Cantlay

+900: Tommy Fleetwood

+1400: Justin Thomas

+1600: Tom Kim

+2000: Taylor Moore

+2200: Sahith Theegala

+2500: K.H. Lee, Wyndham Clark

It’s no surprise to see McIlroy’s name near the top of the board at Quail Hollow, a place (you might have heard) where he’s had some past success. Cantlay has done everything but win this year, including a close call alongside Schauffele at the Zurich Classic in his most recent start. But those aren’t the players I’m targeting as in-play buys in the Queen City…

Draws

Justin Thomas (-3, T16, +1400)

JT was one of my top pre-tournament options, and he quietly got things going in the right direction Thursday afternoon. Thomas made more headlines this week for his gluten-free diet than he has with his game in recent weeks, but he’s been more solid than you might expect: seven top-25 finishes in nine starts this year. Thomas stumbled out of the gates with an opening bogey Thursday but birdied three of his next seven, and at 3 under he’s in a great position with an early tee time on deck. A winner here six years ago at the PGA Championship, he was fifth today in SG: Off the Tee. If that driving prowess continues, he’ll continue to climb the standings.

Keith Mitchell (-2, T30, +6000)

Mitchell has cooled since his sizzling West Coast Swing, but this is a course where he has had past success. A solid opener included an eagle on No. 7 and a strong stat line: the irons were a little wobbly but Mitchell was top-15 in the field in SG: Putting and SG: Tee-to-Green.

With top-10 finishes each of the last two times he has played this event here, the captain of ‘Team Visor’ knows exactly what it takes to tame this brawny layout. He’ll be out in the late wave Friday but I expect him to improve on his opening score – and you should expect his price to dwindle in the process.

Fades

Rory McIlroy (-3, T16, +700)

Rory’s back! Right?

Returning to action at one of his favorite haunts, McIlroy looked more like his old self Thursday at Quail Hollow. But I’m still left with questions about how sustainable this form is for a man who has had ebbs and flows in equal measure this year and who has clearly had off-course matters on top of his mind since leaving Augusta National.

McIlroy can absolutely win this tournament. Heck, he can fire a 62 Friday and make me look like a fool before dinner. But there are so many capable players at 3 under or better that I’m looking elsewhere with 54 holes left. Is McIlroy justifiably half the price of Thomas if they’re both on even footing? I’m not so sure. McIlroy lauded his driver in post-round comments, but it was actually his short game that delivered more effectively in the opening round. I don’t think his in-play number has yet reached its peak.

Tommy Fleetwood (-6, First, +900)

This feels like a figurative “sell high” opportunity on the Englishman. He can’t play better than he did Thursday, a bogey-free effort that included an eagle on the par-5 seventh and a pair of birdies across the treacherous Green Mile. Fleetwood is far too strong of a player to still be in search of PGA TOUR win No. 1, and he’s not without his fair share of close calls against strong fields. But neither his recent form, outside of a T3 finish at Innisbrook nor his Quail Hollow track record indicated this sort of performance was coming.

Fleetwood is an immensely talented player, but so are several players within three shots of his lead. The oddsmakers’ placement of him behind not only Schauffele but McIlroy and Cantlay feels like a fair assessment of his chances. Someone from that latter pack is going to string together a second consecutive strong round, and Fleetwood can only go down from here.

The PGA TOUR is committed to protecting our fans. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, the National Council on Problem Gambling operates a confidential toll-free hotline that you can reach by phone or text at 1-800-522-4700.