Jon Rahm in hot pursuit, but Tony Finau in control in Mexico

I tweeted out on Friday that the BetMGM live odds on Tony Finau had dipped to as low as -155, when we still had roughly 65% of a golf tournament left to go. Now we only have 18 holes left to play – or the final quarter of the Mexico Open at Vidanta remaining – and Finau remains your leader, now down to -120 on the odds board.

Even though we are now down to just one round left to play, it is still pretty rare to have to lay a price with the 54-hole leader. At 19 under, Finau does own a two-shot lead heading into Sunday's finale – but that two-shot lead is over the defending champion and No. 1 player in the world, Jon Rahm, who fired an incredible 10-under 61 on Saturday. Akshay Bhatia is also two back, with Rahm at 17 under. Brandon Wu is three shots off the pace at 16 under. Will Gordon is then the next closest competitor at 13 under, trading at +12500 to win.

The weather has really cooperated. The players have not experienced the heavy gusts of wind in the afternoons as they did at this event last year. I made a wager pre-tournament on the winning score to be UNDER 266.5, meaning 18 under par or better will win the golf tournament. Through just three rounds, the leader is already at 19 under, so barring anything crazy weather-wise on Sunday, we are probably looking at 24 or 25 under par as a winning score. If that is the goal, how far down the leaderboard can we go before the deficit is too much to overcome?

To find an answer, the oddsboard heading into the final round is actually very telling. Brandon Wu is +1800 to win and three shots further back, Gordon is +12500. It is likely that this tournament will be decided between the top four players on the leaderboard: Finau, Rahm, Bhatia, and Wu. The oddsmakers are telling us that nobody else really has much of a chance.

Updated odds to win Mexico Open (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

-120: Tony Finau (-19)

+165: Jon Rahm (-17)

+900: Akshay Bhatia (-17)

+1800: Brandon Wu (-16)

+12500: Will Gordon (-13)

This is not the first time that Rahm and Finau have found themselves battling it out on a Sunday. Finau won THE NORTHERN TRUST – the first leg of the FedExCup Playoffs – at Liberty National in 2021. Rahm was also the No. 1 ranked player in the world at that time. The roles are reversed however, as Rahm held a two-shot lead over Finau back in 2021 and of course, Finau is in the role of the frontrunner now here in Mexico. There certainly is a difference in being either the hunter or the hunted.

Here's a look at the angles I’m pursuing heading into an action-packed final round, with odds via BetMGM:

Draws

Brandon Wu (+1800)

If we are going to dive down the board a little bit, I would take a stab with Wu. He shot his worst round of the event so far on Saturday and that was a not too shabby, a 4-under 67. He has shown that he has the ability to go low, firing a 64 on Friday. He'll likely need at least a 64 on Sunday, if not better, to take home the crown. His work on and around the greens has been excellent, but he is also No. 2 in this field for the week in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. His putter had been red-hot but failed him on Saturday. If the putting stroke returns on Sunday, Wu will make some noise.

Tony Finau (-120)

It was an awfully short price early on Friday and it is still a very short price late on Saturday, but I do feel like it is Finau's tournament to win or lose with that two-shot advantage. It was only at The Masters four weeks ago that Finau had his first start of the entire season that resulted in something worse than a Top 25 finish - and that was only a tie for 26th. The next week at Harbour Town, Finua tied for 31st - so it is not like he fell off the map. The game has been in good form for quite a while, even to last summer when he won in back-to-back weeks.

Like Wu, Finau's putter finally cooled off on Saturday. But if it reverts back to form on Sunday, he ought to win this golf tournament. Finau has always had a ton of success at Torrey Pines, a course I used this week as a correlated golf course to Vidanta. I feel like the Poa Annua greens at Torrey are similar to the Paspalum we have here in Mexico. Keep in mind, Rahm has done pretty well at Torrey Pines over the years as well, right?

Fades

Jon Rahm (+165)

It is very difficult to stay away from Jon Rahm on this golf course at plus money - even though it is a short price. However, I do believe the price is too short. Not only does Rahm trail Finau by two shots, he also has Bhatia, Wu, and possibly Gordon to deal with, too. Rahm shot a 61 on Saturday and that included a par on the par-5 18th, a hole that was ranked the third-easiest on the course. Maybe that is a sign of things to come?

Will he fall apart on Sunday? I highly doubt it, but it is so extremely uncommon to follow up an outlier round - like shooting 61 that should have been 60 - and then to come back and do it all over again the very next day. Rahm hit 17 of 18 greens in regulation and gained nearly 3.5 strokes putting. That is nearly perfect. Overall, Rahm is No. 1 in this field for SG: Putting, gaining over seven strokes on the field for the week. That is a crazy clip and, in my opinion, one that is likely to come back down to earth sometime soon.

Let's also keep in mind that the Masters champion is quite fresh in the betting public's mind and will likely garner the lion's share of the action here. Maybe Finau's price on Friday and here again heading into Sunday…was not short enough?

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