Tony Finau and Jon Rahm poised to push ahead at Mexico Open

The dynamic duo and betting favorites Jon Rahm and Tony Finau didn’t find their way to the top of the leaderboard after the opening round of the Mexico Open at Vidanta but they’re certainly poised to be there soon enough.

The top spot has been taken by Austin Smotherman after a sublime 8-under 63 with Erik van Rooyen and Tano Goya right behind him thanks to afternoon 64’s.

Defending champion Rahm settled for a 67 while Finau, runner-up to Rahm a year ago, birdied three of his last five for a 65.

With one round down at Vidanta Vallarta here are the updated odds to win the Mexico Open at Vidanta (via BetMGM Sportsbook).

+300: Jon Rahm (-4)

+350: Tony Finau (-6)

+1400: Stephan Jaeger (-6)

+1800: Taylor Pendrith (-6)

+2000: Austin Smotherman (-8)

+2200: Gary Woodland (-4)

+2500: Eric Cole (-6)

+2800: Erik van Rooyen (-7)

Here’s a look at some of the players I’m looking to advocate for or against, with odds via BetMGM:

DRAWS

Tony Finau (+350 to win, -6, T4)

As my biggest “draw” pre-tournament, I’m not about to jump off Finau now. The five-time PGA TOUR winner put up seven birdies and just one bogey on the toughest hole of the day as he looks to go one better than a year ago.

While Strokes Gained: Approach leaders on Thursday were the ones surging to the top of the board, the top 10 players at Vidanta in 2022 all performed well in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee, and I’m going to keep this in mind. Finau ranked 26th on Thursday Off-the-Tee, the best of the top eight players.

In terms of Approach, Finau was 40th on Thursday… but he leads the TOUR this season in this metric. He will improve on both, AND he gets the morning tee time on Friday, generally sheltered from the afternoon winds.

Jon Rahm (+300 to win, -4, T14)

Rahm put a little scare in his fans as the world No. 1 sat one over through his opening seven holes, but the betting favorite and Masters champion found some rhythm from that point on. He notched up five birdies to post a reasonable 4-under 67 to sit four shots off the lead.

Rahm’s slow start comes after ranking 132nd in the 144-man field in Stroked Gained: Around-the-Green, losing 1.6 strokes. This should not happen again. Rahm ranks 46th on TOUR in the stat for the season. Call it rust. Call it a little complacency… I don’t expect the lack of focus to return as things heat up and his competitive nature takes hold.

Rahm’s odds have only drifted slightly from his +250 starting price, mainly because he’s spotted Finau two shots now rather than anything else.

Brandon Wu (+3500 to win, -5, T9)

It’s obviously easy to draw the top two players in the field so for those of you not stoked to back short odds favorites, consider the value on Brandon Wu. A runner-up a year ago at Vidanta, Wu shot a reasonable 5-under 66 on Thursday to be three back.

Here’s where it gets interesting though. His numbers aren’t exciting… so it becomes a decision based on course comfort. Do we place capital on the runner up in 2022, or do we get concerned by out of character stats? For tomorrow at least, I’m thinking take a risk.

Wu ranked eighth in the field Thursday Off-the-tee and sixth in the field in SG: Putting. At 150th on the season on the greens, it’s ambitious for me to expect him to continue his putting prowess. But perhaps the Paspalum grass makes him more comfortable. Worryingly, he was 94th on approach but that’s not uncommon given he ranks 118th over the season.

FADES

Austin Smotherman (+2000 to win, -8, 1st)

Sorry Austin, I was just never going to advocate a wire-to-wire win from anyone in this field not named Rahm or Finau. Smotherman’s bogey-free 63 included an incredible four straight birdies to finish, with a hole out from off the green on his last hole.

He ranked first in SG: Tee-to-Green, second on SG: Approach, 24th in SG: Putting and first in Proximity.

Now let’s look at his season ranks thus far…

Tee-to-Green: 170th

Off-the-Tee: 98th

Approach: 147th

Putting: 133rd

Proximity: 27th

Tano Goya (+3300 to win, -7 T2)

As one of the last players on the course Thursday Goya rocketed up the leaderboard into a tie for second with a bogey-free effort. How did he get it done? On the greens.

Goya was first in the field in SG: Putting, gaining a whopping 5.631 strokes while making 136’ 7” worth of putts. He had just 22 total putts and was 14/14 inside 10 feet.

That’s unconscious putting compared to his season stats. The Argentinian ranks 166th on TOUR on the greens this season. You’ve got to expect some regression on Friday when he starts on the tough 10th hole tomorrow morning.