Can Patrick Cantlay go one spot better at Harbour Town?

A golf tournament has broken out on the shores of Hilton Head.

After the opening round was briefly delayed by inclement weather, and veteran Jimmy Walker stormed out to the pole position at the halfway point, the leaderboard at the RBC Heritage after 54 holes now more closely resembles what fans may have expected given the tournament’s elevated status.

Reigning U.S. Open champ Matt Fitzpatrick leads after a third-round 63. Last year’s playoff combatants, Jordan Spieth and Patrick Cantlay, are both in close pursuit. PLAYERS winner Scottie Scheffler is within striking distance, and 14 players will tee off within four shots of Fitzpatrick’s lead.

With one round to go at Harbour Town Golf Links, the tartan jacket is anything but decided.

Updated odds to win RBC Heritage (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+240: Matt Fitzpatrick (-14)

+260: Patrick Cantlay (-13)

+550: Jordan Spieth (-12)

+700: Scottie Scheffler (-11)

+2000: Tommy Fleetwood (-11)

+2800: Taylor Moore (-11), Xander Schauffele (-10)

+5000: Jimmy Walker (-11), Mark Hubbard (-11), Matt Kuchar (-10), Rickie Fowler (-10)

Here’s a look at some of the players I’m looking to back (and oppose) in what’s shaping up to be a wide-open finale in Lowcountry, with odds via BetMGM:

Draws

Patrick Cantlay to shoot 67 or lower (+170)

I really think Cantlay has a great chance to go one better than last year, turning a playoff loss into a victory at a course where he has had an incredible run of form. He’s leading the field in SG: Off the Tee this week, thanks in no small part to an ace during the second round, but his affinity for Harbour Town is well-documented. He’ll have a spot in Sunday’s final group alongside Fitzpatrick and Spieth, and he’s coming off a bogey-free 66. It wasn’t quite as sizzling as Fitzpatrick’s third-round 63, but it certainly kept him in the mix.

Cantlay is +260 to win, but this is a crowded leaderboard on an unpredictable course prone to birdie runs. I think a 67, which would put him at 17 under for the week, would give him a great chance to win – but it’s hardly a done deal. I think Cantlay will keep his foot on the gas given

how well-rounded his game has been this week. Throw in the fact that Harbour Town is a par-71 layout and the course could become softened by early-morning rain, and I lean more toward a reduced payout on his score prop than trying to back him in the outright market given the star power on the board.

Taylor Moore (+2800)

Does this seem familiar? Tree-lined, ball-striking layout with Spieth and Fleetwood among others on the leaderboard? It was only a few weeks ago that Moore shocked the field at the Valspar Championship with a come-from-behind victory. Innisbrook and Harbour Town aren’t carbon copies, but there are definitely some similarities.

Fast forward a few weeks and now Moore knows he can get it done. Now a TOUR winner, coming off a made cut in his Masters debut, and Moore will walk to the first tee with confidence Sunday. He leads the field in SG: Putting, a stat that is admittedly prone to regression but also shows that he’s been able to capitalize on opportunities on the small Pete Dye greens. Moore has made only one bogey over his last 38 holes, playing that span in 10 under, and I think his price is inflated because of the name recognition around him on the leaderboard. It’s probably going to take a 65 to get it done, but at this price I think it’s a worthwhile speculation – as is Moore at +1400 to finish as top American.

Fades

Jordan Spieth (+550)

It’s hard to go back-to-back, regardless of the event. Spieth has improved by one shot each round this week, pointing toward a final-round 65 that would likely allow him to retain possession of the tartan jacket. But the man admitted a week ago that he’s running on fumes, now playing his ninth event in 11 weeks, and his stat line has been good but not great: 19th in SG: Off the Tee, 17th in SG: Putting.

Spieth surged up the standings with three back-nine birdies Saturday before a bogey on the par-3 17th, and he certainly has what it takes to win this event – look no further than last year when he took down Cantlay in overtime. But I don’t love the price, given he’s spotting Cantlay one shot and Fitzpatrick two among the final grouping on a course where penalty areas can often play a pivotal role. Spieth continues to put up big finishes, and it feels likely he’ll get back into the winner’s circle soon. But I’m not convinced it will be tomorrow.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+240)

This is another fade that is price-driven. Do I think Fitzpatrick can win? Absolutely. Am I running to the window to back him at this short number given the talent within close range of his lead? Probably not.

Fitzpatrick has been unabashed about his love of this course – in fact, he might be the only player on TOUR who has carried a Harbour Town head cover on a regular basis. “Aside from Augusta, it’s my favorite course,” Fitzpatrick said Saturday. “It really is. I love coming here to play it.”

Fitzpatrick followed that statement with an admission that his love for Dye’s design hasn’t translated into results: playing here every year since 2016, he has only one top-10 finish and three missed cuts. His win last year at The Country Club removed once and for all the question of if he can win in the U.S. despite a sterling record on the DP World Tour, but there could be some internal pressure to push a little extra hard for the win this week. The adage about backing up a low round still has some accuracy, and Fitzpatrick is coming off a day where everything went his way – including a 149-yard hole-out for eagle. There are too many players within close range, including guys like Spieth and Scheffler, for me to buy in at this price.

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