Five must watch Thursday matches

AUSTIN, Texas. – An intriguing opening round is in the books at Austin Country Club where we saw 11 of the 16 top seeds find victories against the lowest seed in their groups to kick start their campaigns at the World Golf Championships – Dell Technologies Match Play.

But second seed Jon Rahm headlined the top seeds who fell on Wednesday, joined by Will Zalatoris (7), Viktor Hovland (8), Matt Fitzpatrick (11) and Tyrrell Hatton (14).

Those players aren’t eliminated… yet. But they are facing much tougher paths to get out of their group, while first up winners can go a long way to securing passage in Thursday’s second round.

Here are five critical matches ahead of Thursday’s play and how I see them playing out in Austin.

CAMERON YOUNG (1-0-0) VS. COREY CONNERS (1-0-0)

11:04 a.m. ET

BetMGM Odds: Young -115; Conners +125; Tie +750

The most impressive display of golf on Wednesday came via Young’s incredible front nine where he posted nine straight threes on his card with a 8-under 27 and 5 up lead. But while I can see many getting seduced by his play I’m not convinced and am ready to sell Young while his price sits here. In the end Young had to play 16 holes as Davis Thompson provided a mini fightback on the back nine and this is enough to give me pause on Young. That and the fact there is no way he can continue a day that saw him fourth in Strokes Gained: Putting – a stat he ranked 181st coming into the week.

Meanwhile Canadian Conners made the final four in Austin a year ago and was never troubled in a dominant 6 and 5 win over Sepp Straka. Tee-to-Green Conners ranked seventh in the 64-man field and he was sixth on approach and ninth in Proximity. Importantly he was three for three scrambling as well.

So, I smell an “upset”.

XANDER SCHAUFFELE (1-0-0) VS. AARON WISE (1-0-0)

3:06 p.m. ET

Odds: Schauffele -155; Wise +175; Tie +750

Schauffele posted an impressive eight birdies on Wednesday in a clinical 4 and 3 win over Australian Cam Davis. With Wise making nine birdies in his 1up win over Tom Hoge this match becomes critical in the group when it comes to who is likely to advance.

Schauffele has never made it out of the group stage in this tournament but that should change this year. His round had just one bogey while Wise offset his firepower with two bogeys and a double bogey. Wise hit just three of 14 fairways in his win, not a recipe he will want to follow again. He made up for it with 116-feet worth of putts.

In saying that, Wise stood tall as Hoge fired hard at the finish with three straight birdies to close, and Wise matched two of them to preserve the win. But Schauffele hit 10 of 12 fairways, 11 of 15 greens, and ranked a respectable 13th in putting.

Stick with the favorite here.

JON RAHM (0-1-0) VS. KEITH MITCHELL (0-0-1)

11:26 a.m. ET

Odds: Rahm -155; Mitchell +175; Tie +750

Credit to Rickie Fowler for his 2 and 1 win over Rahm on Wednesday but the world No.2 certainly didn’t give his best fight. Rahm jumped to a 2-up lead through three holes but was dismal on the greens in this contest, losing over a shot and a half to the field average.

Rahm knows he must rebound with a win on Thursday or face the prospect of being unable to advance from the group. Mitchell will be no pushover after he produced a huge comeback against former champion Billy Horschel to force a tie. Down three holes with seven to play, Mitchell put up four birdies, including one on 18, to force the tie.

BUT, while I think Rahm is ripe for the picking, Mitchell was even worse on the greens on Wednesday! He lost over two shots to the field average and ranked 60th of 64 players.

Stay with Rahm, but don’t bet the house.

TONY FINAU (1-0-0) VS. ADRIAN MERONK (1-0-0)

10:20 a.m. ET

Odds: Finau -160; Meronk +180; Tie +750

Finau enters this week on the back of eight straight top 25s dating back to his win at the Houston Open last fall. Since the win he has been solid but not spectacular and it was so again on Wednesday as he dispatched Christiaan Bezuidenhout 2 and 1. Finau ranked eighth in putting on the day but otherwise didn’t stand out.

Meronk, the Polish up and comer, was able to ride a late birdie blitz to put Kurt Kitayama away. Now he must take it up a notch against Finau but he won’t be over-awed. While clearly not the same stakes, he was able to take down Adam Scott late last year in the final round of Scott’s home Australian Open against a hostile crowd so playing Finau won’t phase him.

Meronk was 13th off the tee and 11th putting on Wednesday but lost half a shot on approach.

While smart money stays with Finau I’m going to throw up the wildcard here and say it will be a tie!

SUNGJAE IM (1-0-0) VS. J.T. POSTON (1-0-0)

2:00 p.m. ET

Odds: Im -130; Poston +145; Tie +750

Im set the benchmark for highest winning margin with an 8 and 6 drubbing of Maverick McNealy so it is no surprise he takes a heavily favored position leading into this clash. But Poston was no slouch in taking down Tommy Fleetwood 3 and 2 setting up this mouthwatering contest.

While it can be easy to be seduced by the score Im only managed three birdies and also had a double bogey in his win. While he played well, it was McNealy’s five bogeys which were the main contributing factor. Im actually lost strokes to the field on approach and putting and also didn’t get a feel for most of the course. This scares me.

Poston gained strokes in both the above metrics but did struggle off the tee to be ranked 44th. He was way above his usual efforts on the greens as well but even still, the +145 number looks juicy if Im hits it poorly one more time. I’m expecting a grind in this one and think the postman can deliver.

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