Jon Rahm leads, but price matters at Bay Hill

ORLANDO, Fla. – No, your computer screen isn’t broken.

It’s Jon Rahm’s name atop the leaderboard at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. Just like last time out at The Genesis Invitational, or The American Express, or the Sentry Tournament of Champions. There’s a bit of a theme developing in 2023, one that reinforces the air of invincibility currently surrounding the world No. 1.

After blistering Bay Hill Club & Lodge with a 7-under 65 to move two shots clear of the field, the question isn’t if Rahm can win at the Home of the King. It’s whether the current in-play price merits (further) investment – particularly with the wind about to blow.

Updated odds to win Arnold Palmer Invitational (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+140: Jon Rahm

+850: Scottie Scheffler

+1200: Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele

+1400: Cameron Young

+2000: Rickie Fowler

+2200: Keegan Bradley

+2500: Jordan Spieth, Chris Kirk, Max Homa, Tony Finau

+4000: Rory McIlroy, Kurt Kitayama

Low scores have been hard to come by in recent years at Bay Hill, and that may prove to be the case Friday with winds forecast to gust in excess of 30 MPH. So here’s a look at some players to lean on in the breeze, and others that may get blown in the wrong direction:

Draws

Cameron Young (+1400) to win

He’s going to win eventually. Yes, it would be quite a splash to break through for a maiden victory at an elevated event like this against a stellar field. But Young has done everything but win in his brief PGA TOUR career, and slipping into the champion’s red cardigan wouldn’t be that big of a shocker.

He did everything right Thursday at Bay Hill. Fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, eighth off the tee and 13th in putting. It was a complete performance, one that briefly gave him the lead and eventually left him two behind Rahm. The world No. 1 is a daunting player to chase, but his presence is also inflating the prices of those closest around him. If Young were two shots behind Chris Kirk, for instance, his in-play number would likely be much shorter.

But the big key for Young is the weather forecast, as I’ve got some faith that Young can handle blustery conditions. He’s a strong driver, ranking 18th on TOUR this season in SG: Off the Tee, and we saw at the PGA Championship last year that he can keep pace when the weather goes a bit sideways. If Young is as strong off the tee as he was Thursday and has been throughout the season, this number won’t be around over the weekend.

Xander Schauffele (+140) over Jon Rahm (Round 2 Matchup)

This head-to-head is via DraftKings, where Rahm is an understandable -165 favorite. But don’t lose sight of the fact that Schauffele put up a 4-under 68 despite losing strokes off the tee. Schauffele’s lone bogey came on the par-5 fourth and he picked up 1.55 strokes on the greens. He’s not exactly a slouch.

So while Rahm is a clear favorite in the outright market, Friday’s weather forecast presents something of an added variable that has me looking the other way given the steep price. Rahm is clearly the world’s best player, and his eagle-birdie-birdie close to the opening round captivated the crowds at Bay Hill. As I write this, I’m realizing just how crazy it seems to stand on the other side of him given his current form.

But it’s not the player at issue here, it’s the price. Rahm’s getting action at nearly any number right now, so there’s little incentive for oddsmakers to price him favorably. Instead that equity gets transferred to the underdog in this matchup, which feels much closer to a coin flip than +140 would indicate – especially with the weather expected to play a significant role in the second-round proceedings.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+280) Top-10 Finish

When conditions get tough, Fitzpatrick’s eyes light up. The Englishman has spoken often, including in years past at Bay Hill, about how he would prefer to take on challenges where par is an achievement rather than easier layouts where six birdies are required to keep pace. It’s the sort of mindset that can net you a U.S. Open trophy.

But Fitzpatrick has found success in Orlando while embracing that mentality, with four straight top-10 finishes including a runner-up showing in 2019 behind Francesco Molinari. He’s off to a solid (albeit quiet) start with a 2-under 70, a score that left him five behind Rahm and priced at +6000 to win at BetMGM. So while I’m not convinced he’ll race all the way to the top by Sunday, I do believe that he’s a great candidate to work his way into contention (again) given the challenge that lies ahead in the second round.

Fades

Rickie Fowler (+2000) to win

Fowler was one of the big pre-tournament price moves at PointsBet, going from +8000 to +5000 amid a flurry of pre-tournament action. Those prices were subsequently halved (and then some) as Fowler opened with a 68, and now BetMGM has him priced behind only five other players. Let’s pump the brakes a bit.

Yes, Fowler is in the midst of something of a renaissance, having rebuilt his swing and now quickly building some consistency. And yes, this tournament means a little extra to him given his close ties to Arnold Palmer. But Fowler’s win rate wasn’t the best even in at his peak, and he can throw a stick and find a top-ranked talent near him on the leaderboard that he’ll need to overcome. Such is life at an elevated event.

Fowler was a scrambling machine Thursday, ranking sixth in SG: Putting and carding a 4-under total despite losing -1.128 strokes off the tee. That errant driving will catch up to him eventually, especially if the wind kicks up, and it’s unlikely he’ll be able to keep pace on and around the greens. Fowler remains a popular selection, both pre- and in-tournament, but this is a situation where the price is simply too short given the talent around him.

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