Shane Lowry lurks as Justin Suh faces litmus test

The second round at The Honda Classic saw those in the morning take full advantage of rare scoring conditions before the afternoon wave battled their way home to stay alive for weekend play.

The Champion Course at PGA National gave up a scintillating 8-under 62 to Chris Kirk, a 63 to Monday qualifier Ryan Gerard and a 64s to new clubhouse leader Justin Suh, Ben Martin and Bruce Garnett. Of those only Garnett played in the afternoon, and he was part of the first group of that wave.

We are not expecting any such low numbers over the weekend as the pressure ratchets up and with danger seemingly around every corner, no lead is safe. The second round was suspended by darkness Friday night with just three players remaining on the course before the cut is made official at 1 over. Two of those players are on their last hole, currently at 1 over.

Australian Brett Drewitt is 112 yards from the hole on the par-5 18th having played two shots while up and coming young star Pierceson Coody has the par-4 9th hole to play in the morning in par or better to stick around.

Updated odds to win (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+320: Justin Suh (-10)

+320: Chris Kirk (-9)

+1100: Ben Taylor (-8)

+1600: Eric Cole (-7)

+1800: Ben Martin (-7)

+1800: Shane Lowry (-4)

+2000: Ryan Gerard (-8)

+2500: Byeong Hun An (-5)

+2800: Brice Garnett (-7)

Here are players to consider (or steer clear of) if you’re looking to get involved in in-play wagers ahead of Saturday’s action in Palm Beach Gardens.

DRAWS

Shane Lowry (+1800, -4)

As the second-best ranked player in the field the Irishman, but local resident, Lowry is currently at a number to intrigue bettors. Just six off the pace on a difficult course he knows better than most place him in position to make a Saturday charge. He’s gaining strokes across all the key metrics but has room for improvement and while he’s barely had a moment’s rest this season, the thrill of contention should bring a burst of energy. Lowry is ranked 14th in SG: Tee-to-Green so far this week, and 34th on the season. He needs to keep it together on the greens to minimize errors but certainly has the chops to do so while others may feel the heat.

Chris Kirk (+320, -9)

Look, the odds aren’t super for a player who hasn’t won on TOUR since 2015, but this four-time winner is playing some rock-solid golf so far. Ranked 12th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (+2.200), fourth in SG: Approach (+5.129), 18th in SG: Around the Green (+1.556) and 39th in SG: Putting (+1.565) for the most part mirror his season efforts. Only SG: Off-the-Tee is noticeably better than usual. But the key factor is SG: Tee-to-Green – the number one metric for recent winners at The Honda Classic. Kirk leads the field in this stat at +8.886 and critically sits a respectable 44th on the season showing this is not abnormal.

Byeong Hun An (+2500, -5)

Currently sixth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green (+6.232) but one of just three players in the top 10 on the leaderboard who are inside the top 63 of this metric this season. An had a poor day on the greens in round one but rectified this in round two making almost double the feet of putts. It is here on the greens he must stay solid for this play to come off. He ranks 142nd in SG: Putting this season and that won’t get it done this weekend. But the former Presidents Cupper knows how to handle pressure and he starts Saturday in the perfect stealth position.

FADES

Justin Suh (+320, -10)

This is a fade based on the numbers, not the potential of the player. Short odds for Suh, who is a former amateur world No. 1 who took it to the likes of Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland in his time, are hard to swallow until he meets the potential many have seen in him.

Here are the hard facts:

This week he ranks 10th in SG: Tee-to-Green, fifth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 32nd in SG: Approach, 64th in SG Around-the-Green and second in SG: Putting.

This season he ranks 166th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 87th in SG: Off-the-Tee, 132nd in SG: Approach, 200th in SG Around-the-Green and 55th in SG: Putting.

Those are some pretty decent improvements! Can we rely on that continuing while getting short odds?

Ben Taylor (+1100, -8)

One stat from Taylor is just screaming at us through two rounds. SG: Off-the-Tee. Taylor has lost -1.736 shots to be ranked 119th in the field having hit just 13 of 28 fairways. How long can he possibly keep that up and contend? He’s needed to lead the field in SG: Putting to maintain his viability, needing just 26 putts each round. It’s been a strength for sure this season, ranking 23rd on the greens but if those misses off the tee find water… there is no return.

Ryan Gerard (+2000, -8)

OK, this one is a little captain obvious. Gerard is a Monday qualifier who has never seen this sort of position before. He will head out with cameras blazing and all sorts of new feelings. But I will say this. It would be awesome to be wrong on this one! How can you not pull for a guy who had to get through qualifying to play? No one would be upset to see a 1000/1 shot (his opening price) be the first since Corey Conners to win as a Monday qualifier. Let’s hope at very least he can hang in the top 10 to get into the Puerto Rico Open.

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