Still time to back longshots at The Honda Classic

The opening round of The Honda Classic played out, well, about as expected.

Low scores were hard to come by. The wind picked up at times, and the water lurking around 15 of the 18 holes on the Champion Course at PGA National snagged a few dozen balls. Birdies and double bogeys popped up on scorecards with similar frequency.

The leaderboard, too, presents a familiar mix. Yes, 2020 champ Sungjae Im is in the mix and remains an outright betting favorite overnight. Florida native Billy Horschel shares the lead, and Shane Lowry – who has yet to find a tight, demanding layout that didn’t suit him – is also off to a strong start. But so too are players that have been biding their time to get on the first page of the leaderboard, either as bigger names starred in high-profile events or simply while the PGA TOUR took its time shifting to the Sunshine State.

Updated odds to win (via BetMGM Sportsbook)

+550: Sungjae Im (-3)

+600: Billy Horschel (-5)

+1000: Shane Lowry (-2)

+1100: Joseph Bramlett (-5)

+1800: Justin Suh (-4)

+2000: Adrian Meronk (-3)

+2200: Min Woo Lee (-2)

+2800: Aaron Wise (-1)

+3000: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (-2)

The opening round was suspended by darkness Friday night and will resume at dawn, with a handful of players looking to wrap things up before a quick turnaround for Round 2. Here are players to consider (or steer clear of) if you’re looking to get involved in in-play wagers ahead of Friday’s action in Palm Beach Gardens, including one relative unknown who will be among the early risers:

DRAWS

Taylor Pendrith (-1, +4000)

Long drives outnumbered made putts. It was a pretty typical Pendrith round Thursday, although perhaps steadier than most: only one missed green in regulation, with 17 birdies and a lone birdie. But the Canadian didn’t just manage his misses, he largely avoided them while leading the field (unsurprisingly) in SG: Off the Tee. This is a course where Pendrith’s edge with driver in hand will yield a more pronounced advantage than other TOUR venues.

It's up to him to start rolling in the putts, but this price is largely based on the premise that he won’t heat up on the greens. The long game is clearly there, and his approach work was more solid than his typical baseline. There’s a window of opportunity here for him to work into the mix heading into the weekend, at which point this price will be long gone.

Carson Young (-4 through 15, +10000)

Look, it’s absolutely a flier. There’s no denying that Young has struggled mightily in his rookie campaign, making just two of 12 cuts and failing to advance to the weekend in nearly four months. But he’s a product of the southeast, having played at Clemson, and he won on Bermuda greens at a Florida course at a Local IQ mini-tour event during COVID. We’ve seen players spring to life when the venues shift from the West Coast to Florida (think Kevin Kisner), and we’ve seen this event produce unlikely contenders with little track record to speak of (think a fresh-faced Daniel Berger in 2015).

Young will return to the par-3 seventh hole in the morning, where he’ll need to save par from just off the green and with the benefit of placing his ball back in the rough. From there he could snag a birdie on No. 8 and will be able to play his last two holes in calm conditions. He putted the lights out Thursday, ranking second in SG: Putting, and will need to remain hot on the greens. There’s a reason that he’s still listed in the triple digits despite sitting one shot off the lead. He’s a wild card in every sense of the word. But in an event where it sometimes doesn’t require a household name to stick around on the leaderboard, Young could be worth a nibble.

FADES

Joseph Bramlett (-5, +1100)

Bramlett opened at +5000 and moved swiftly up the board after grabbing a share of the lead, but this adjustment may be a little too heavy-handed for a player still without a win (and without many significant shots at contention). Bramlett is undoubtedly playing some of the best golf of his career, coming in off a pair of top-13 finishes at Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, and he had the entire package Thursday at PGA National: fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green, third in SG: Putting. Hard to argue with that.

But I don’t love backing Bramlett above some of the other names within close proximity of his on the leaderboard. I’m willing to be proven wrong, but this could end up being among the lowest odds we see on Bramlett should a player who ranks 155th in SG: Putting on TOUR this season eventually stop rolling them in.

Matt Wallace (-3, +3300)

There are 144 players in the field this week in Palm Beach Gardens, and Wallace drove it better than five of them Thursday. It was a wild day off the tee for the Englishman, who lost -2.182 strokes to the field off the tee but still managed a 3-under 67. Much of Wallace’s Strokes Gained damage came on the par-4 13th, where he hooked his tee shot out of bounds to promptly end a run of three straight birdies with a double bogey.

He played the five holes from there in 2 under, with birdies on Nos. 17 and 18, but the penalty paid for errant shots around PGA National is significant. Wallace has missed his last two cuts in the U.S. and hasn’t won before on TOUR – while we’ve seen Europeans lift the trophy here with some frequency, I have my doubts about whether he’ll be able to keep the Big Miss at bay off the tee the rest of the way.

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