Can anyone catch Jon Rahm at Riviera?

When Max Homa rolled in a birdie putt on No. 14 to grab a share of the lead at The Genesis Invitational, it seemed like a duel had broken out between two of the PGA TOUR’s top draws to decide who would carry the California King moniker with him as the scene shifts east next week.

Four short holes later, Jon Rahm walked off the last green in full command and heading downhill toward his third win of the year.

Rahm was a slight favorite over Homa in live wagering when the American drew level with him on No. 14, but Homa followed with two straight bogeys. Rahm’s closing birdie put an exclamation point on a third-round 65 and gave him a three-shot cushion as he looks to win for the fifth time in the Golden State. He’s within reach of becoming the fastest to three TOUR wins in a calendar year since Johnny Miller in 1975.

Granted, one of the TOUR’s most historic layouts remains one of its most unpredictable. It was only a few years ago that Justin Thomas coughed up a five-shot advantage heading into the final round at The Riviera Country Club, and just two years ago things turned on a dime during a closing stretch that saw Homa beat Tony Finau in a playoff.

So heading into the last round of the West Coast Swing, let’s take a look at the cases for (and against) the contenders, starting with the man they’ll all be chasing at Hogan’s Alley:

Jon Rahm (-15, -300 odds to win)

For: The last four holes in the golden sunlight Saturday afternoon felt like a turning point. Rahm and Homa had gone shot-for-shot for much of the third round, but suddenly Rahm raced past the 2021 champ and now has a three-shot lead that felt much larger as he walked off the last green. Rahm has been on an unreal heater since late last year, and quite frankly he shows no signs of slowing down. It certainly feels like he’ll capture this tournament at a frequency greater than the 75% implied probability his odds convey.

Against: Maybe he’ll get some bad food from In N Out? It’s hard to come up with much of a case against the Spaniard at this point. Homa certainly has the bona fides to chase him down, and despite the lack of penalty areas, it’s easy to start going sideways at Riv. But this feels like a situation where someone will have to emerge from the pack with an amazing round to challenge Rahm rather than the Spaniard doing anything to come back to the masses.

Max Homa (-12, +400)

For: The man knows what it takes to win this event. Homa is just two years removed from posing alongside the trophy and tournament host Tiger Woods, and he’s only three weeks

removed from his most recent win in his home state. Homa seems to gain confidence by the day, his short game has been reliable all week on a track where he needs it, and the Presidents Cupper won’t shy away from a showdown with the former world No. 1.

Against: It feels like Homa let his best chance slip away over the final hour Saturday. Tied for the lead heading to the 15th tee, he’s now three shots back and facing a far more uphill battle as a result. Riviera isn’t a place where it’s easy to press, but Homa may need to get aggressive in the early stretch Sunday assuming Rahm continues at his current steady pace.

Patrick Cantlay (-10, +1600)

For: The former UCLA standout would love nothing more than to complete a comeback in the shadows of the Hollywood hills. Cantlay played his final 10 holes in 3 under, including a birdie on No. 17, to reach double digits under par. He won’t have the benefit of a grouping with Rahm and the leaders, but he’ll have an opportunity to post a number ahead of them that could potentially give them something to think about.

Against: The comeback is simply too little too late, especially given the talent ahead of him. If he needed Rahm to falter, that might be one thing – but spotting five shots to Rahm and two to Homa on a course he loves seems like a bit too much. Cantlay would need a ton of breaks to fall his way, both in posting a low number and having the leaders falter behind him – and his price reflects it.

Keith Mitchell (-11, +1800)

For: Mitchell was unaffected by a spot in the anchor group Saturday with Rahm and Homa, and the trio will rekindle their tee time for the final round. There’s a dose of familiarity that could bode well for the unflappable veteran, who also got into the mix two weeks ago at Pebble Beach and appears to be inching closer to win No. 2. Mitchell also has the added benefit of knowing exactly what Rahm and Homa are doing – and what he needs to overtake them.

Against: Similar to Cantlay, Mitchell is facing a two-front battle. It’s hard to envision either Rahm or Homa coming back to the field, much less both of them, meaning that Mitchell will need to press on a course with razor-thin margins. He’ll be in prime position to capitalize on blunders from the two names ahead of him on the leaderboard, but it’s hard to imagine they’ll give him much to work with.

*Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook as of 8 p.m. ET Saturday

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