Rory McIlroy must find groove on the greens to catch Max Homa and Jon Rahm

PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif. – Max really is at Homa.

The Los Angeles native and California king is refusing to give up his recent dominance in his home state without a serious fight.

Homa tacked a 3-under 68 onto his opening 64 to move to 10 under at The Genesis Invitational through his two rounds, one clear of Jon Rahm (68), Keith Mitchell (69) and Lee Hodges (66) who sit tied second at 9-under.

Big guns Collin Morikawa (8-under), Patrick Cantlay (7-under) and Rory McIlroy (6-under) are also lurking.

But it’s Homa, who has claimed four of his six TOUR wins in California, including two already this season at the Fortinet Championship and Farmers Insurance Open, who is the man to beat at Riviera Country Club.

Tiger Woods battled hard with three bogeys in his last four holes sending him back to 1-over par for the tournament. While his chances of a record busting 83rd TOUR win look bleak, he appears set to make the cut on the number when the second round is completed early Saturday morning.

As the weekend approaches it’s time to look at who we expect to continue heading forward at Riviera Country Club and who might find the weekend tough.

DRAWS

Max Homa (+300, -10, T1)

Homa was a draw yesterday and will continue to be one today. While a final hole bogey took a little gloss off his round, the local favorite was brilliant even when he wasn’t at his best. Lacking his usual crisp ball striking Homa still found ways to trade bogeys with birdies and his epic par save from a buried bunker lie on 12 was next level incredible.

He leads the field in Strokes Gained: Putting having gained a whopping 7.074 shots to the average on the greens.

“I see the bumps on the poa annua greens and I don't cringe, doesn't give me the shivers, I enjoy it. I know people are going to get frustrated and I like that in a competition,” Homa said.

“This golf course in particular does suit me really well. It suits a lot of the shots I like to hit. That's my best estimation. I enjoy that it seems to work well in these tournaments because they've been big events. San Diego, here, it's been cool to feel comfortable on two major golf courses with major fields, so I've been very lucky with that.”

Jon Rahm (+250, -9, T2)

For a little while on Friday it looked as if we’d made an error having Rahm as a draw after the first round even though he eagled the first hole. Three bogeys in his next eight sent Rahm backwards before a 5-under stretch from holes 13 to 17, including a second eagle of the day, re asserted him as a serious threat, even if he did get an assist with a bounce off a grandstand.

“Those greens were getting a little crunchy and a little firmer, so the margins are already small on this golf course and you're playing with even smaller margins with running fairways and firm greens, not to add the poa annua factor in the afternoon,” Rahm explained. “It did not look good for a while and luckily I got it together for the last seven holes.”

Rahm ranks 55th in SG: Off-the-Tee this week, but second this season on TOUR so expect some improvement. He ranks third in SG: Approach at Riviera and fifth in SG: Putting.

Rory McIlroy (+850, -6, T7)

It’s time to stick solid even though it is going to take something to change on the greens for McIlroy to contend.

We were expecting McIlroy’s putting to improve Friday after ranking 88th on Thursday but it regressed to 91st (-1.368). But we did see him lift from 39th to ninth off the tee and as such we are prepared to give him one more day to show he can adjust to Riviera’s hardening putting surfaces.

He also has the benefit of no longer being paired with Tiger Woods, something that is a distraction for anyone in this position.

“I feel like I've left a lot of shots out there the last couple of days, I just haven't got any putts to drop,” McIlroy said. “Still sort of keeping myself within touching distance. Just sort of having a tough time trusting my reads. Like technically I'm good. I think from like inside five or six feet I've been really good, it's just outside of that range I haven't really got a lot to drop. For me, I think that means more just reading the greens properly rather than anything technical, which is a good thing.”

FADES

Collin Morikawa (+600, -8, 5th)

Buyer beware. This choice is rooted in conventional number wisdom whereas there is still some gut feel from watching him play that says he can hold on. But here goes.

Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green is more important at Riviera Country Club than any other TOUR venue given how hard the greens can be to hit and Morikawa leads the field in the metric this week gaining 3.833 strokes so far.

But here is the rub. The Californian kept his round rolling Friday with two chip ins and this is out of character. He ranks 134th on TOUR so far this season around the greens and is notoriously not the best in this area. He is also 28th in SG: Putting despite ranking 123rd this season.

“It's really nice, but you know what, it's a little frustrating just not hitting more greens,” Morikawa said of his impressive chipping around the greens this far. “I want to make it a little more stress free and just a little more enjoyable. Fairways are going to be really key, especially how firm these greens are getting. Just when you have a tad bit of downwind when you're in the rough, it's just hard to judge whether it's going to come out spinny or come out a little jumpy.”

So, to be clear – some of the numbers scream fade, but something in his demeanor, and the fact players of similar ilk like Adam Scott have won at Riviera before, could see you giving Morikawa the benefit of the doubt at least one more round.

Lee Hodges (+2200, -10, T2)

Hodges has his hand up to be this week’s Nick Taylor after some impressive golf thus far. He ranks seventh in SG: Approach (+4.282) this week and sixth in SG: Putting (+3.986).

Prior this season Hodges was ranked 76th in approach and 121st putting so it’s certainly an improvement this week.

This biggest red flag for us however is he currently ranks 47th in the field in SG: Around-the-Green (+0.554) but ranks 176th on the season with an average of -0.307. If his short game pulls back to the mean, he could be in for a struggle. He will also be faced with the pressure of playing amongst the final groups with proven TOUR winners.

Keith Mitchell (+1200, -9, T2)

We faded Mitchell Thursday and he proved us wrong but we are going back to the well.

Mitchell regressed slightly in SG: Off-the-Tee Friday but continued to do well in SG: Approach (+2.436, rank 17), SG: Around the Green (+3.024, rank 9) and SG: Putting (+2.918, rank 14). Previously this season he ranked 111th, 110th and 128th in those metrics respectively and we are still expecting a regression to those standards.

He has just one prior start in the tournament – a missed cut in 2019.

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