Draws & Fades: Homa and Rahm look rock solid in LA

PACIFIC PALISADES, Calif. – The California king Max Homa continued his stellar play in his home state by surging to a share of the partially completed first-round lead with Keith Mitchell at Riviera Country Club but Jon Rahm sits well poised right behind them at the Genesis Invitational.

Homa put up a 7-under 64 in the morning wave, with a birdie on his final hole enough to eclipse Rahm’s 65 posted a little prior. The pair appear ready to continue their form going forward, giving the rest of the field a tough target to chase.

Mitchell matched Homa in the afternoon with five birdies on the back nine a huge factor for the former Honda Classic champion. Only a handful of groups failed to finish the opening round when darkness halted play.

Coming off his missed cut a week ago in Phoenix, Collin Morikawa birdied his final two holes to post a 5-under 66 and sit just two off the pace, tied with veteran Matt Kuchar, Harris English and Doug Ghim (through 17 holes) in a tie for fourth.

Tiger Woods thrilled the galleries with three birdies in a row to end his round late in the day, posting a 2-under 69 for a share of 27th.

But who will continue their form and who is fighting above their weight class?

DRAWS

Max Homa (+450, -7 64, T1)

You almost can’t bet against him in California. Homa is already a winner at the Fortinet Championship and Farmers Insurance Open in his home state this season and his resume also boasts the 2021 Genesis Invitational title and the 2021/22 Fortinet Championship in the golden state. His round was one of all around brilliance, something he wasn’t afraid to admit afterwards.

“It just felt like every aspect of my game felt good... You never know when you're going to shoot 7 under… but I felt like I took advantage of how I felt, which is something that's important out here,” Homa explained.

“Today I felt like I had it and I was very proud to go around this place and show that, because I did feel good. I felt good on the range, I felt good yesterday… so I wanted to go out there and commit to every shot and trust it. I'm swinging it awesome and I'm putting it well, so why not trust my golf swing.”

Homa was 5th in 2020, won the event in 2021, and was T10 a year ago at Riviera. On Thursday he ranked 13th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee (+1.191), ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach (+2.442) and sixth in Strokes Gained: Putting (+3.146). While he sat 55th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green (+0.240) that’s down on his season average (+0.411) and we expect him to improve.

Jon Rahm (+300, -6 65, 3rd)

Rahm hit just six fairways and 12 greens and STILL managed to get it around in 65 shots. Rather than look at this as a player likely to stumble, we see it as the only way is up for the Spaniard. He came out firing with back-to-back birdies and could have easily been 4-under through three holes with a smidge of luck. His four appearances at Riviera prior to this season have all been inside the top 21.

“My record is decent in California… I think because I grew up on poa annua greens, I feel comfortable and it's shown,” Rahm said. “It's a golf course where you need to strike the golf ball well, you need to move it both ways and tee to green is obviously usually my forte and it plays to my strengths and that's why I think I've had success here.”

Rahm ranked 15th in SG: Approach (+2.020), 25th in Strokes Gained: Around the Green (+1.048) and 10th in SG: Putting (+2.522) in the first round.

Rory McIlroy (+650, -4 67, T7)

This choice is as much on reputation as much else as McIlroy was – at best – scratchy in his opening round as he battled to a 67. He needed a hole out chip as part of his score and putted rather dismally by his lofty personal standards.

But while we do expect improvement on his SG: Putting (-0.731) rank of 88th, it is also off the tee where McIlroy expects improvement. He took to the range in fading light to sort it out after ranking 39th in SG: Off the Tee (+0.657) having been inside the top six in the metric for each of the last five seasons. He hit just five of 14 fairways Thursday but still his 13 greens and was five from five scrambling. McIlroy made just 32’1” of putts.

“I felt like I managed my game well today. I didn't feel comfortable at all off the tee but hit it in the right spots when I needed to and birdied the holes that you should,” McIlroy said. “I'm going to go work on the range. I put my driver up a click in loft at the start of the week, I might have to turn it back down again. I don't like him hitting it by me.”

FADES

Keith Mitchell (+1200, -7 64, T1)

It was a phenomenal charge from Mitchell on Thursday who made seven birdies in his last 13 holes to join the lead. But while Mitchell has PGA TOUR win equity under his belt, his round was certainly out of character to his form this season.

Mitchell is always solid in SG: Off-the-Tee and that continued Thursday to be ranked fifth (+1.509) but he was also great in SG: Approach (+2.097, rank 13), SG: Around the Green (+1.592, rank 25) and SG: Putting (+1.817, rank 21). Previously this season he ranked 111th, 110th and 128th in those metrics respectively.

He has just one prior start in the tournament – a missed cut in 2019.

Matt Kuchar (+4000, -5 66, T4)

Kuchar wound back the clock with a sublime round but we just can’t see the veteran maintaining the 6.187 strokes he gained on the field Tee-to-Green on Thursday. On average Kuchar gains 0.467 shots per round in this metric this season to rank 66th on TOUR and we expect a little regression back to the mean in Friday’s second round. It is also concerning Kuchar lost -1.169 Strokes Thursday putting BUT this could be where he evens out the aforementioned retreat. Kuchar usually gains an average +0.577 per round with the putter.

Tiger Woods (+8000, -2 69, T27)

Please be wrong, please be wrong, please be wrong. It seems almost blasphemous to suggest Woods will regress after the incredible birdie, birdie, birdie finish we witnessed Thursday evening but the fact remains, he clearly isn’t moving like the good old days.

Woods founds some old magic despite clearly struggling on his surgically repaired ankle to gain +1.819 shots on the field putting but he gave almost a shot back around the greens (-0.990). Having to come back out to play on a short turnaround in cold conditions after a night of ice and recovery doesn’t garner a lot of confidence. This is one fade I won’t mind eating if it’s incorrect.

“I'm a little bit sore right now. I need to go and do some treatment and get this thing ready for tomorrow,” Woods said. “Last year you saw it, I didn't finish off the rounds right. Those are things that I hadn't done and I hadn't played a whole lot, so I was chastising myself pretty hard coming off of 12 saying, hey, we've got to really get this thing going… and I just happened to get three in a row coming in.”