Make Your Case: Jon Rahm and company have Scottie Scheffler in their Sunday sights

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – Defending champion Scottie Scheffler has positioned himself brilliantly in his quest to go back-to-back at the WM Phoenix Open, forging a two-shot lead with a round to play.

Scheffler’s 3-under 68 on Saturday moved him to 13-under for the tournament, two clear of local resident Jon Rahm and Canadian Nick Taylor and three ahead of Jordan Spieth and Adam Hadwin.

Xander Schauffele, Jason Day, Tyrrell Hatton, Sungjae Im and Rickie Fowler will all start the final round four shots off the pace with dreams of making a run to the title.

Let’s take a look at the players on top of the board at BetMGM Sportsbook and check the case FOR and the case AGAINST their chance to lift their own trophy on Super Bowl Sunday.

SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER, -13, 1st (+110 to win)

Case For: Scheffler has proven himself at TPC Scottsdale before having won last year, his first of four wins on the season. Now he seeks to kickstart his 2023 with a replica win. Scheffler has gained a field leading 8.452 strokes on the field on approach and is 10th in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee. Has just two bogeys on the week.

“Something I talked about at the beginning of the week was I felt like I've been on the outside looking in on Sundays. To be in the final group with a two-shot lead is definitely a position I want to be in. I'm looking forward to tomorrow,” Scheffler said.

Case Against: It’s not easy to find problems in Scheffler’s game but one thing could derail the Texan if he’s not careful. There may be a few mental demons from giving up a large lead at the TOUR Championship to Rory McIlroy last season. He was six clear on that occasion only to let it slip. “I feel like my odds are a little bit better if I have a two-shot lead (rather) than a two-shot deficit. So definitely prefer to be in the lead,” he added.

JON RAHM, -11, T2 (+280 to win)

Case For: Rahm already has two wins this season at the Sentry Tournament of Champions and The American Express. He has the crowd on his side having attended Arizona State and still calling Scottsdale his home now. He’s ranked second in proximity this week and is riding momentum from his chaotic birdie on 16 Saturday afternoon.

Case Against: Rahm’s Saturday round was chaotic as he lost -0.840 strokes to the field off the tee, hitting just six fairways. If he plays the same way Sunday it’s hard to see him reeling in Scheffler’s deadly approach game. Rahm also has the phenomenon of having tried to hard to win his adopted home event.

“I have had good finishes, but I've never gone down the stretch into the back nine with a chance to win. For the most part I've actually played a really good back nine to put myself in that top 10. My best finish doing exactly that was when I was an amateur,” Rahm admits.

“Hopefully tomorrow I can get off a better start, play a good front nine and go in that back nine with a solid chance of getting it done.”

JORDAN SPIETH, -10, T4 (+1400 to win)

Case For: Spieth has been dialed in on approach, ranked second in the field by gaining 7.052 strokes against his competitors and second tee to green as well. Spieth is second in birdies with 17, including an incredible one on the 17th in the third round following a sensational bunker shot. “To grab an extra one there on 17 was certainly a bonus. Coming in with a better chance tomorrow,” Spieth said. The Texan shot 63 in his second round this week and he’s previously had a 61 at TPC Scottsdale.

Case Against: Spieth has missed five putts inside 10-feet on the week and three-putted four times. If he is to make up ground any more of those won’t be acceptable. “I need to eliminate those tomorrow because the ball striking has been there in those rounds,” Spieth admitted. He hasn’t had a top 10 finish since last years Open Championship.

NICK TAYLOR, -11, T2 (+1600 to win)

Case For: Taylor will go into the final round with no expectations from outside sources given the quality of his final group opponents. This should give him a freedom not always afforded players in contention, particularly those who have two TOUR wins on their resume. Taylor has moved to this position with the help of his short game, ranking fifth in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and seventh in putting.

Case Against: His opposition. With all due respect to the plucky Canadian his career hasn’t reached the heights of the major winners around him. But stranger things have happened.

“They're obviously amazing players. I'm just going to have to do my own thing tomorrow. Easier said than done. But if I keep playing like I have been playing I think I'll have a decent chance coming down the stretch,” Taylor said. “But I can't really pay attention to what they're doing. If I get wrapped up in that it's probably when I would struggle a little bit. I've been in a position where I've been an underdog, so I just got to keep my head down and keep playing.”

XANDER SCHAUFFELE, -9, T6 (+1800 to win)

Case For: Schauffele’s results since his first WM Phoenix debut in 2018. T17-T10-T16-T2-T3. With two near misses the last two years Schauffele has a determination to atone. A known chaser, Schauffele is right where he can make a run without major expectations. Ranked ninth off the tee and fourth on approach this week.

Case Against: Having hit the lead late on Saturday Schauffele looked primed for a big finish but instead dropped two shots coming in to steal away momentum from his efforts. He’s been decent off the tee however has missed well wide a few times which cost him a double bogey in round three. Losing strokes to the average around the greens.

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