Draws and Fades: WM Phoenix Open

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. – TPC Scottsdale showed some teeth as the winds whipped up during the opening round of the WM Phoenix Open, leaving plenty of PGA TOUR stars facing an uphill battle to contend for the title.

Steady winds of 20mph with gusts hitting as high as 30mph, sent the scoring average to 72.179 on the par-71 layout, trending towards the toughest opening round in the tournament since 2005’s chaos of 74.150.

While the morning wave completed their rounds, the afternoon groups were unable to finish thanks to an early morning frost delay, leaving them with the prospect of a long Friday as they complete anywhere between three and 11 holes of round one, before having to turn right around for the second round.

“The wind was tricky, a ton of crosswinds, and then there would be times where it would feel into and then it would go slightly down,” world No. 1 Rory McIlroy said after a 2-over 73.

“When you've got that 90-degree wind the whole time, if it changes just slightly one way or another, it's a completely different shot, completely different club, and I got caught out by that a couple of times coming in, which wasn't ideal. I actually felt the best swing I made of the day was the par-3, 7th, and hit it 20 yards over the green.”

McIlroy is now seven shots off the clubhouse lead, held jointly by Canadians Nick Taylor and Adam Hadwin at 5-under. Having started at +800 with BetMGM sportsbook McIlroy is now +4500.

Pre-tournament favorite (+700) Jon Rahm eagled the par-5 13th right before play was halted to move to three under with five to play and remains the betting man to beat at +350. Do we believe he is the man to beat? Read on for our Draws and Fades after day one.

DRAWS

Jon Rahm (+350, -3 through 13, T6)

Yes, the late eagle does make a huge difference. While the odds aren’t an attractive number there is every chance that Rahm, who has never missed the cut in Phoenix, could close his opening round with the clubhouse lead. He has the par-5 15th and the drivable 17th to come in the morning. If he gets to five under the above number will move in even more. Rahm was trending second in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee – a proven metric towards success at TPC Scottsdale.

Xander Schauffele (+600, -4, T3)

Having gone very close to winning here twice Schauffele battled his way through the winds to post a tidy 67 and set up another run at it. He’s gaining strokes on the field in all major metrics thus far. Despite hitting just six of 14 fairways, Schauffele’s only mistake came when three-putting the stadium 16th hole to earn a chorus of boos.

“I was booing myself in my own head too,” he quipped.

Jason Day (+1100, -4 through 10, T3)

Day continued his decent form from Torrey Pines to notch up four birdies in 10 holes on Thursday. He sits in the rough on the right side of the tough 11th hole after his tee shot but if he can secure a par or better on return, he is in great shape. The 12-time TOUR winner was ranked third in Strokes Gained: Putting when play was halted, needing just 12 putts in 10 holes. He was ranked 14th in approach proximity.

FADES

Nick Taylor (+4500, -5, T1)

It was an awesome effort from Taylor to come home with a 6-under 30 on the back nine to take the clubhouse lead. But while he gained strokes across all main metrics, it just isn’t something we see continuing. Taylor was 17th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee on Thursday but ranks 138th on TOUR this season and he was also overachieving to his averages on the greens.

Jim Herman (+20000, -4 through 13, T3)

While we’d love to advocate for the ultimate underdog who has cashed as a TOUR winner three times at huge odds, the fact Herman is ranked third in Strokes Gained: Approach through his 13 holes is mind boggling given he ranks 211th on TOUR in the metric. Oh, what the heck, consider a small unit, but don’t say we didn’t warn you.

Scott Stallings (+5500, -3 through 15, T6)

A brilliant effort to lead the field in Strokes Gained: Approach through his 15 holes was needed to get to this leaderboard position. Stallings lost ground putting and was middle of the pack off the tee. His season rank on approach is 159th leaving little confidence he can maintain this pace.

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