Draws and Fades: WM Phoenix Open

Beginning with this week’s WM Phoenix Open and extending all the way to THE PLAYERS Championship in a month, PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf gamers will be feasting on the possibilities. Not only do the five tournaments of this span comprise the conclusion of Segment 2, but every field also promises to present depth that should assuage concerns over already having burned three starts for a couple of notables.

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Veterans of the format normally experience this kind of end-weighting only in Segment 4 that concludes with the FedExCup Playoffs. However, neither of the last two events of that series features a cut, whereas every tournament for the remainder of Segment 2 does. In fact, all stops contributing to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf until the final fortnight have a cut.

A calculated approach in completing Segment 2 should dismiss – wait for it – the finale at TPC Sawgrass. Seriously.

For just about all intents and purposes, Pete Dye, vis-à-vis his collaboration with his wife Alice, win the PGA TOUR’s flagship event every year. When Mike Glasscott compiles Horses for Courses for it, it truly will be more about coincidence than command. We’ve seen (and experienced) it time and again in fantasy. You’re more likely to be disappointed than fulfilled. Celebrations are bonuses more there than any other stop in the U.S. Despite its position as the finish line of Segment 2 and as a premier event, THE PLAYERS is a week when you can expand your focus to lean on ball-strikers who make cuts. A push can be sexy in this context.

In the meantime, stockpile your targets for the 132-man field at TPC Scottsdale and the 120-man gatherings for The Genesis Invitational and Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard. The 36-hole cuts still will be low 65 and ties, so a higher percentage of golfers will contribute to your post-cut totals than in previous weeks. What’s more, all three fields will present depth and proven experience on which to rely to grant you a chance either to hang on at THE PLAYERS or to slingshot into the lead.

Speaking of cuts, Scott Gutschewski isn’t a household name, so what happened on Sunday at Pebble Beach didn’t get much attention. However, since all golfers impact our pursuits, it’s worth explaining.

The 45-year-old Korn Ferry Tour graduate survived the 54-hole cut of the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. At 5-under 210, he sat T57 entering the finale. He then completed 13 holes on Sunday in birdie-free 4-over before withdrawing due to an injured rib. So, he was awarded unofficial last-place earnings ($18,879 for solo 64th) but zero FedExCup points because he didn’t complete the tournament.

It’s uncommon but two or three times every season a golfer calls it quits after making a cut. The wrinkle about last week, though, is that there were 13 golfers who also survived the cut but who didn’t qualify for the final round because they fell outside the playing cut of low 60 and ties. It’s unique to the tournament. (A variation of it for The American Express existed through 2019.)

Each of the 13 at T65 and designated with an “MDF” (Made cut, Didn’t Finish) were awarded with 3.015 FedExCup points and $17,661.00 in official earnings. (For the record, official earnings apply in earnest only to the career money list and determining positioning in the overall pecking order very deep in the membership ranks.) So, you might wonder why Gutschewski wasn’t granted what would have been 4.200 FedExCup points for solo 64th since none of the 13 immediately outside the playing cut didn’t have the chance to tee it up in the final round.

Aside from the aforementioned provision that FedExCup points are awarded only to golfers who complete the tournament as permitted, the mandate to finish to collect FedExCup points aligns with the agreement that every golfer also will give his best effort to finish the job at hand. An injury is unfortunate, but it’s also part of the sport.

POWER RANKINGS WILD CARD

Daniel Berger (-110 for a Top 20) … You could’ve predicted this, and probably did when he didn’t appear in the Power Rankings proper. In fact, even though he hasn’t missed an edition of the WM Phoenix Open since splashing for a T10 as a rookie in 2015, this was supposed to be a scheduled week off. However, he’s traded this commitment for last week’s unscheduled week off due to discomfort in his back that gave him fits at Torrey Pines (T20), ultimately preventing him from defending his title at Pebble Beach. So, the obvious angle is to beware the injured golfer, both in reality and as a metaphor for a harbinger of success. However, a sore back is the most debilitating of the injuries, so limit your fractional investment to an aggressive DFS considerations.

DRAWS

Luke List (+220 for a Top 20) … Even though it was scheduled, I love that he took a break after connecting for his first PGA TOUR title at Torrey Pines two weeks ago. It gave him a moment to celebrate and refocus for his eighth appearance at TPC Scottsdale where he recorded a top 30 in three of the last four editions. Most of all, when he pierces the bermudagrass on Thursday, he’ll be doing it with the reflection of never having to chase his first trophy again. He truly can enjoy the walk and the experience. Those feels aside, he’s been a serious contributor all season, anyway. He’s playing like he’s in his prime, which he is at 37 years of age.

Harold Varner III (+170 for a Top 20) … You can try to find someone who loves life more, but don’t waste your time. Sure, he’s fresh off an exhilarating victory at the Saudi Invite, and yeah, that’s a long trip, and, of course, there’s little time to celebrate, decompress and ratchet back into a competitive mode, but no one would enjoy that experience and this challenge as much. He either opens with a sloppy, fatigue-riddled 70something, or he sleepwalks to another red number just as he did in all four rounds here last year en route to a T13, but there isn’t a livelier atmosphere to get through all of it than at TPC Scottsdale.

Corey Conners
Russell Henley
Lucas Herbert
Max Homa
Billy Horschel
Matt Kuchar
Martin Laird
Nate Lashley
Francesco Molinari
Adam Scotty

Odds sourced on Tuesday, February 8 at 6 p.m. ET. For live odds visit betmgm.

FADES

Tom Hoge … In a word, he’s a machine, but he’s also fresh off a stressful breakthrough victory at Pebble Beach. Let him soar until his feet return to earth.

Hudson Swafford … Although a very different skill set than Scott Stallings, who is just two years older and also in the field, the recent winner of The American Express is in the same kind of lane. Both are three-time PGA TOUR winners who play often, but neither goes on a tear to warrant extended confidence in our world. Both present much stronger as a complement in deeper formats because they are commodities, but too often what they deliver in the short-term is a bonus, not an expectation. Case in point, the 34-year-old Swafford is 1-for-4 at TPC Scottsdale with a T9 in 2020.

Seamus Power … Mojo doesn’t last forever. His third-round 74 on the Shore Course of MPCC last week was a reversal of the pair of 64s that preceded it on its co-hosts. A lackluster 72 to close resulted in a T9 that was entirely front-loaded, especially when you consider that he held a five-shot lead after 36 holes without having played the gettable MPCC. He’s been a workhorse, so don’t lose the faith, just give him a breather.

Tony Finau … When expectations are as high as they are, this little rut he’s been in is magnified. He’s also in his fourth consecutive week on the road, including a stop at the Saudi Invite, so the travel could catch up with him on a site that’s had his number enough to wonder if the playoff loss in his last visit two years ago eventually turns out to be fluky when he’s all said and done competing in this tournament.

Rickie Fowler … He’s experienced the spectrum of emotion in this tournament, so when he reignites, it very well could be at TPC Scottsdale. However, and there have been too many howevers, a T3 at THE CJ CUP @ SUMMIT is his only top-30 finish in eight months.

Harris English
Garrick Higgo
Kevin Kisner
Michael Thompson
Gary Woodland

RETURNING TO COMPETITION

Louis Oosthuizen … He’s in my Power Rankings at No. 14, but this is another reminder that he hasn’t faced live action since he withdrew only one round into The RSM Classic due to a back injury.

Charley Hoffman … Welp, that was predictable. It was in this exact space last week when I reviewed the timeline of his recent battle with an injured back. Prior to the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, he withdrew early from three consecutive commitments, the first of which was way back in mid-November. Lo and behold, he made it through only one round last week – a 2-under 70 on Spyglass Hill no less – but that was it. He was done. As a brand ambassador for WM, his entry this week isn’t a surprise, and he’s made 15 consecutive appearances prior to this one, but gamers are advised to abstain in all formats.

James Hahn … Had to sit out last week due to testing positive for COVID-19. It’s been nine years now since he celebrated a birdie at the par-3 16th hole in the final round with his version of a dance move from Psy’s “Gangnam Style.” That T16 in his tournament debut is one of five top 25s, and he’s never missed an edition. He’s cold upon arrival but count on him to contribute in DFS.

NOTABLE WDs

Maverick McNealy … His TPC Scottsdale debut is on ice for another year. Failed to contend at Pebble Beach and finished T33. Although he’s 16th in the FedExCup, he has only one top 10, but it’s the solo second at the Fortinet Championship that’s positioned him prominently in the first quarter of the season.

Lanto Griffin … The 33-year-old has continued to pay dividends in his fourth season on the PGA TOUR. What’s interesting is that while he’s made nine starts and sits 25th in the FedExCup, he’s also withdrawn early after three commitments deadlines. Because he’s stayed busy, the default reaction is that he’s building a schedule that makes the most sense. It’s just that we usually don’t witness the process in real time like this.

Andrew Landry … The Texan has been all or nothing this season, but that’s pretty much what we’ve come to expect from him. He’s made only two cuts, but the first went for a T4 at the Sanderson Farms and the second was a T7 at Mayakoba. He’s 65th in the FedExCup.

RECAP – AT&T PEBBLE BEACH PRO-AM

POWER RANKINGS
Power Ranking Golfer Result
1 Patrick Cantlay T4
2 Daniel Berger DNP
3 Jason Day T24
4 Jordan Spieth 2nd
5 Maverick McNealy T33
6 Will Zalatoris DNP
7 Cameron Tringale MC
8 Justin Rose 62nd
9 Seamus Power T9
10 Kevin Streelman MC
11 Kevin Kisner MC
12 Matt Fitzpatrick T6
13 Michael Thompson MC
14 Russell Knox T33
15 Tom Hoge Win
Wild Card Matt Kuchar MC

SLEEPERS
Golfer (Prop) Result
Brian Gay (top 20) MC
Brandon Harkins (top 20) MC
Min Woo Lee (top 20) MC
Troy Merritt (top 20) T4
Chez Reavie (top 20)MC

GOLFBET
Bet Result
Charley Hoffman – Miss Cut (+122) WD
Scott Piercy – Top 30 (+480) MC
Scott Brown – Top 40 (+400) MC

BIRTHDAYS AMONG ACTIVE MEMBERS OF THE PGA TOUR

February 8 … none
February 9 … none
February 10 … none
February 11 … Dawie van der Walt (39)
February 12 … none
February 13 … none
February 14 … none