Running with Rick: Hideki Matsuyama trending in right direction ahead of Baycurrent Classic

The PGA Tour heads to Yokohama Country Club in Japan this week for the Baycurrent Classic. This event is only in its eighth year of existence, with all seven of the previous editions held in Japan. However, this will only be the second time it will be contested at Yokohama (with last year being the first). That means we lack the data and sample size to properly assess the course from a statistical viewpoint, but we can make some educated guesses and build some theories along the way.

The first thing that stands out is the unique scorecard. It’s a par 71 that has only two par 5s and three par 3s, leaving us with, you guessed it, 13 par 4s. That’s the most par 4s of any course on the PGA Tour schedule this year.

The tournament routing is a composite course of the 36-hole layout that Yokohama Country Club offers. The Tour will use 16 holes from the West Course and two holes from the East Course to create this championship setup. The venue does a nice job of making tee shots uncomfortable for players. The fairway bunkers, doglegs and pinch points all seem to sit right in that 310-yard landing zone, which will remove the ability for some players to completely eliminate those hazards with distance. The greens are protected by heavy bunkering that creeps into the green complexes in many situations.

The final thing to consider about this unique venue is how differently the course can play every day thanks to the conditions this time of year. Last year, we saw one of the widest ranges of scores of any event, but that was mostly caused by the large swings in weather.

The opening round featured sustained winds of 20-25 mph, with gusts to 38 mph, and produced a scoring average of 72.05. The very next day, the winds calmed and the temperature warmed, which lowered the scoring average to 68.99. The weekend was just as manic and, after the dust settled, Yokohama Country Club had the fourth-widest spread of scores on the schedule last year.

After Ryan Gerard finished third at the Tour Championship, he went overseas to continue his season, and the results haven’t slowed down. He finished T30 at the European Masters, T27 at the BMW PGA Championship and T14 at the Open de France. That marks six-straight top-30s worldwide dating back to the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Those three DP World Tour starts have been a master class in ball-striking. Gerard gained 18.33 strokes on approach in those 12 rounds. He was hindered by some woeful putting, but that’s unusual for Gerard, who is a solid putter, and we can suspect he’ll benefit from a change of scenery. Gerard has gained 0.92 strokes putting on bentgrass in 2026, the second-best mark of anyone in this field.

Gerard’s consistency makes him a solid building block for a betting card, which is why I’ll be deploying him in the top-20 market this week. That price can currently be found at -122 at DraftKings Sportsbook. As a reminder, this week’s event boasts a 72-man field with no 36-hole cut.

Nico Echavarria has played in Japan twice, winning this event in 2024 and following it up with a ninth-place finish last year. It’s worth noting that his win came at Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club, not Yokohama Country Club, where this week’s event will be played. However, Echavarria might simply benefit from the type of fairways that are much more common in Japan and will be in play this week. Those fairways are zoysia grass, and Echavarria is one of the best zoysia specialists in the game.

He has gained 0.45 strokes on approach per round when playing on zoysia, which is 0.60 strokes per round better than his normal approach baseline in those years. There’s no other player in this field who can boast a difference that large.

Echavarria is notoriously volatile, so I’ll be targeting his upside with the hopes of being rewarded for my risk. I’ll be clicking his top-10 number, which can currently be found at +530.

We haven’t seen Michael Thorbjornsen play since the BMW Championship, but don’t let that absence wipe your memory of how well he played at the end of the Tour season. He won the Rocket Classic only three starts ago and finished T7 at the Genesis Scottish Open just five starts ago.

He’s a dynamic driver who has gained 14.97 strokes off the tee over his last five starts. He combined that with strong approach play and a volatile putter, which is the modern way to play professional golf. His tee-to-green prowess gives him plenty of opportunities and, if his putter runs hot, he can win golf tournaments in any field.

He put his driver to good use here last year, hitting 71.7% of his fairways en route to a third-place finish. There are a variety of high-upside markets that I’d feel comfortable using Thorbjornsen in, but I’ll settle on the top-10 market, where he currently sits at +200.

It’s been an eventful year for Hideki Matsuyama, who is, statistically, having his worst year since 2021. Of course, he’s still gaining 0.89 strokes per round and is one of the best players in the field, so it’s more demonstrative of how good Matsuyama actually is.

However, he’s played much better golf since the U.S. Open. In eight starts, he has six top-15 finishes, and his T28 at the BMW Championship was his worst result. Those recent gains come from a significant improvement off the tee. Over his last 36 rounds, he’s hit 69.6% of his fairways with an average driving distance of 305.7 yards. That level of competence off the tee will be more valuable here at Yokohama Country Club than at many other venues.

His comfort level in Japan on zoysia fairways is unmatched. He’s 0.15 strokes better on zoysia than his own historically elite approach baseline. He’s won this event and finished runner-up when it was held at Narashino Country Club, and he finished T20 at this venue last year.

He’s trending in the right direction, and there is still plenty of room for improvement. That’s why I have Hideki Matsuyama to win the Baycurrent Classic at +1450.

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