The shot that turned the 2025 Masters Tournament on its head was in the air for seven seconds, a towering 6-iron approach that set up Rory McIlroy’s second eagle of the day. McIlroy only waited three of those seconds before walking after the ball, striding confidently toward the narrow green before the shot even reached its apex.

If McIlroy goes on to win his elusive green jacket, it’s that strike – that seven-second span of confident shot-making – for which he’ll be most remembered. But the job is far from over.

“I, just as much as anyone else, know what can happen on the final day here,” said McIlroy, 14 years after he let a four-shot lead slip away here on Sunday.

McIlroy’s second straight round of 6-under 66 gave him a two-shot advantage this time around heading into the final round at Augusta National Golf Club, but that margin looked for much of the waning hours as though it would be double that size. Reigning U.S. Open champ Bryson DeChambeau closed with a flourish, highlighted by a 50-foot birdie on No. 18 to get within two shots.

It sets up a mouth-watering narrative, a battle between two of the best players in the world who just went toe-to-toe 10 months ago at the U.S. Open at Pinehurst.

Updated odds to win the Masters

• -200: Rory McIlroy (12-under)
• +260: Bryson DeChambeau (10-under)
• +1800: Corey Conners (8-under)
• +3500: Ludvig Åberg (6-under), Scottie Scheffler (5-under)
• +8000: Patrick Reed (6-under)

This is a course and a tournament that has historically favored front-runners; each of the last 35 Masters champions started the final round T5 or better. Even if that mark brings in the likes of Conners, Reed and Åberg, it feels like a two-man race that will be decided in the final group as McIlroy and DeChambeau battle for another major title.

“It’ll be the grandest stage that we’ve had in a long time, and I’m excited for it,” DeChambeau said.

If the current betting odds are translated into implied win probability, either McIlroy or DeChambeau will win this thing 93 percent of the time. It’s a scenario that likely doesn’t sit well with oddsmakers, as both men were among the most popular pre-tournament bets at multiple outlets. McIlroy and DeChambeau accounted for 29 percent of the overall handle and 23 percent of the bets at DraftKings entering Saturday, and the theatrics both men put forth in the third round will only increase the amount of in-play dollars that went to both men as liability racked up.

As is often the case with in-play betting, timing matters as much as target. Some bettors are sitting at home with a McIlroy win ticket in the +2200 neighborhood, having bought in around the time that he made the turn Friday while facing a seven-shot deficit. That price decreased steadily across the third round, from the +330 neighborhood as he teed off to better than even money after playing his first three holes in 4-under.

McIlroy ultimately topped out around -340 Saturday evening before DeChambeau closed with three birdies over his final four holes. The Ulsterman’s in-play price of -200 implies a great likelihood that he’ll close out the final leg of the career Grand Slam – but it’s a far cry from that -340 price peak.

In terms of how moneyline prices fluctuate in the NFL, McIlroy essentially went from being a 7.5-point favorite to a 3.5-point favorite. Still expected to win, but now much closer to a toss-up contest.

And as he mentioned in his post-round presser, he doesn’t need to be reminded of how volatile Masters Sunday can be. It was here in 2011 that he entered the final round at his same 12-under 204 score, that time up by four, and imploded with an 80 to finish T15. The scars from last summer, when he missed short putts on two of the final three holes to lose to DeChambeau by a shot, likely haven’t healed.

But McIlroy is a front-runner by design. Each of his four major titles included a 54-hole lead, and this is the first time he sits alone at the top heading into Sunday since Valhalla in 2014.

For his part, DeChambeau briefly topped out at +1000 before dropping back down to +280. After speaking to the media, he shuttled back out to the tournament practice area to hit balls into the dimly lit Augusta sky.

Both men sought to keep their cards somewhat close to the vest with their post-round pressers, knowing that nothing said Saturday evening will outweigh what will be done Sunday afternoon. The stage will be immense, and McIlroy will both shoulder the larger (historical) burden and begin that quest with a head start.

For bettors, the options depend on the portfolio. Many already have a ticket on one (or both) of the leaders. For those looking to ride the undulations of the markets during the final round, the key will be finding moments to capitalize on volatility. Early birdie starts can jolt odds on the other side, and savvy bettors can find themselves in a situation where they have plus-money tickets on both combatants – or seek to hedge off a larger position in either direction.

Because regardless of which player slips into the green jacket, regardless of which direction the scales will tip toward between joy and heartbreak, one thing is certain: Sunday’s final pairing, a matchup that McIlroy refused to label a rematch, will pack plenty of drama. And for bettors, that means opportunity.