When we analyze the variables of any tournament, one of the biggies is the grass on which the touring professionals are putting. Three of the first eight tournaments this season were played on Bermudagrass, but The Sentry features an exclusive field and opportunities for the Sony Open in Hawaii and the WM Phoenix Open vary. The other events are played on overseeded Poa annua and paspalum.

It's a big reason why, if the PGA TOUR season started with the Florida Swing, there’s no doubt that the FedExCup standings wouldn’t line up necessarily to their current order.

Beginning this week with the Cognizant Classic in The Palm Beaches, all four tournaments that comprise the Florida Swing (and the four after that that contribute to PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore) will be played on Bermuda, most of which is overseeded for competition. This plays directly into the muscle memory and comfort level of the large subset of members who grew up in the Southeast and/or played it regularly and found success on it while on the rise. The moral of the matter is that had they started the season exclusively on this grass, there’s a better chance that those among them who stumbled out of the gates to start 2025 would be in better position in the FedExCup.

Consider that of the 15 golfers who recorded a top 10 at PGA National’s Champion Course last year, seven hadn’t connected for a top 20 in 2024 until they arrived. That includes defending champion Austin Eckroat, co-runner-up Min Woo Lee and three of the five at T4.

Indeed, an array of factors could help explain the timely uptick in performance – course history, fit, wind, etc. – but getting back on Bermuda matters. If you’re in a tiebreaker among selections in fantasy and/or DFS, use it to lock in your lineup and watch what happens.

Captain

As is often the case for this tournament, the draw could hurl a wrench at the plans. It’s not expected to be much of a nuisance yet, but Friday’s wind might benefit one side of it enough to make changes before the tournament begins. For now, I ride with ...

• Russell Henley … He’s No. 3 in my Power Rankings but I’m taking a more aggressive angle than usual because there’s absolutely nothing wrong with him as one of the strongest considerations. Another component to the calculus is a hope that other chalk fails to fulfill the highest expectation. Just think of how often the tournament favorite on any betting board does not win. Having taking a bite out of my deficit in my little league at the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld thanks primarily to Aaron Rai (who was not my Captain), it’s a smart time to apply a different kind of pressure in a field of 144.

Other considerations

• Shane Lowry … The No. 1 in my Power Rankings is a no-brainer to be rostered, and he led all golfers in ownership percentage at last check, so you’re likely accepting a push, and that’s fine.
• Sepp Straka … The No. 2 in my Power Rankings really is a 1a. Perhaps the most comfortable in his own skin as anyone in the field with the recent form and course success to explain why. He’s my first pivot for Captain when I compare the draw against the weather forecast later.

Rounding out the roster

I thought that I was going to have room for Lucas Glover, who is No. 6 in my Power Rankings, but I went with Billy Horschel at No. 8 to join my top five. There are so many really nice options that can benefit a chaser who is thinking of complementing Lowry, Straka and Henley with surging form sprinkled among the rest.

My starters

• Russell Henley (C)
• Shane Lowry
• Denny McCarthy
• Sepp Straka

My bench

• Daniel Berger (1)
• Billy Horschel (2)

Careful

For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which is not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.

• Sungjae Im ... As a former champ at PGA National in 2020, he knows what he’s doing around the course but too many question marks slot him in as a contrarian in his seventh appearance. He’s just 1-for-3 with a T42 since 2022, and he’s went T33-T57-MC in his last three upon arrival this season. Because he’ll be too expensive in DFS, he’s smartest for chasers in the PGA TOUR fantasy game who are in need of a speculative stud.
• Jordan Spieth ... Making his tournament debut and perhaps sneaking in a start that he might lose in the summer when his third child is born. After months off to recover from wrist surgery, returned to contention in his second start with a T4 at the WM Phoenix Open but missed the cut at The Genesis Invitational the following week. If he shows signs of life again at PGA National, include him on your short list next week should he receive an exemption at Bay Hill, where he’s 3-for-3 with two T4s and a T30.
• Michael Kim ... Classic trap of a guy who thrived on the West Coast and has yet to make any noise in Florida. In the four tournaments held in the Sunshine State, he’s a combined 7-for-19 with one top-30 finish (T17, Arnold Palmer Invitational, 2017). He’s 2-for-6 at PGA National and without a top 50. Granted, after years of grinding back for his card, it’s a compliment that he’s earned the deeper dive, but it’s time to lay off.
• Byeong Hun An ... With a T4, a T5 and two T21s contributing to his 5-for-6 at PGA National, he presents as chalk, but you should be pumping the brakes based on his early 2025 results. A T22 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is his only top 30, and he appeared in all three of the limited-field Signature Events thus far. Yes, per the opening above, there’s an argument that he’ll find his game this week, but this is a player who had been dialed in for an extended period of time all the way through a win in South Korea in October.

Returning to competition

Parker Coody ... Scheduled to return at the 118 Visa Argentina Open presented by Macro. He had been sidelined by an injured wrist that knocked him out of the first round of the Sanderson Farms Championship on Oct. 3. It’s timely for two notable reasons. First, the winner of the Korn Ferry Tour in Buenos Aires is awarded with an exemption into The Open Championship. Second, for sitting out more than four months, he’s risen from the Minor Medical category on the PGA TOUR to the reorder category that includes medicals among KFT grads. When he gets back in the big leagues, he’ll have four starts to earn 268.730 FedExCup points for a promotion.

Aaron Wise ... Also in the field in Argentina. It’d be his first sanctioned start since the Puerto Rico Open a year ago and just his second since the 2023 U.S. Open. He had stepped away at the time to focus on his mental health, so he has 26 starts on a Major Medical Extension on the PGA TOUR. Don’t hesitate to grab in long-term formats in which you can be patient.

Notable WDs

Aldrich Potgieter ... Didn’t last long in the field after gaining entry with the playoff loss in Mexico, but he can rest after rising to the top spot in the Aon Swing 5 for eligibility into next week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

Sam Stevens ... First week off in the last eight and didn’t cash in Mexico, but at sixth in the Aon Next 10 he’s a virtual lock to get into the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Tyler McCumber ... After over a year since his last start on the PGA TOUR, he returned last week and missed the cut. Surgery on both hips and his left shoulder required extensive recovery, but he was the runner-up at the Victorian PGA Championship in early December. With 13 starts on a Major Medical Extension, he’s worth a look in salary leagues that allow midseason moves.

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