Editor’s note: Birches Health is a leading national provider of Responsible Gaming resources and Problem Gambling treatment, offering specialized care from the comfort of home, covered by insurance.

Most bettors have heard it before – and maybe even have thought it themselves at some point – the idea of feeling “due” for a win after a series of losses. Whether it’s with golf betting, roulette, slots, lottery or another form of gambling, the “gambler’s fallacy” is a common misconception among bettors.

The gambler’s fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy, is the incorrect belief that a certain random event is less likely or more likely to occur based on previous results. A famous example came in 1913 at a roulette table in a Monte Carlo casino, where “black” hit 26 times in a row. Bettors lost millions wagering on “red,” mistakenly believing that it was due.

If you’ve been randomly betting golf outrights every week and your picks are regularly finishing in the top five or top 10 but not winning, you may think that since you’ve been coming so close, you are due for one of those bets to cash in the near-future. Unfortunately, that thinking is wrong and can be dangerous, as some bettors will then risk more to offset the previous losses in addition to the winnings.

However, it’s worth noting that in golf betting, recent form and past results of an individual player can be an indicator for future performance, so that is not a form of the gambler’s fallacy. The key difference there is that one golfer’s performance is not always a “random event.” Your assortment of outright bets on multiple golfers naturally involves more chance, and therefore can incorrectly cloud your view of the future likelihood of success.

Independent vs. dependent outcomes in betting

A key to understanding the gambler’s fallacy is the difference between independent and dependent outcomes. The previous results of independent events do not impact those in the future, such as with roulette spins. Events are dependent if the first iteration influences the outcome of the second.

Independent event examples:

• Flipping a coin
• Roulette wheel spins
• Rolling dice in Craps
• Lottery tickets
• Randomly betting a handful of longshot players with triple-digit odds to win every week

Dependent event examples:

• Single-deck Blackjack
• Betting on an individual golfer to win THE PLAYERS because of his recent form and past performances at TPC Sawgrass

There is also a gray area in sports betting, where bets can involve both dependent and independent variables. For example, some bettors like the excitement of betting on if there will be a hole-in-one during a tournament. Most golfers and fans would agree that there is an element of luck and chance to making an ace, not just the skill of the players. But is it completely random? Or can certain predictable elements like conditions, pin placements, size of field and past success rates impact the likelihood of it happening in the future? It’s not always obvious that an event is “random” or if past indicators can impact future chances in the world of sports betting.

Dangers and risks of the gambler’s fallacy

The gambler's fallacy can affect logic and decision-making, especially in individuals prone to “at-risk behaviors” in sports betting. This common misconception can impair their thinking and push them toward taking on more risks after a series of losses. This connects directly to the concept of “chasing losses,” when bettors place more and/or larger wagers in hopes of winning back what was lost before. When gamblers feel that they’re “due” for a win, they may increase their bet size, which can create a dangerous cycle of compounding losses at levels they cannot afford.

Gambling addiction treatment and support

If you or someone you know may be struggling with gambling – and potentially learning the hard way about the gambler’s fallacy – there is specialized support available. Birches Health offers treatment for problem gambling from the comfort of home through virtual counseling. They have a nationwide team of licensed clinicians who can conduct initial assessments confidentially, then create a custom treatment plan for each individual. Care can be covered by insurance as well, since Birches Health is in-network with all of the major insurance providers in the United States.

To connect with Birches Health, you can click here to book an appointment, call (833) 483-3838 or email help@bircheshealth.com.