Scottie Scheffler is the betting favorite heading into the weekend at The Genesis Invitational. No big surprise. What is turning heads, though, is how Scheffler got there.

A year after riding historic ball-striking stats to a myriad of trophies, Scheffler has flipped the script through two rounds on the South Course at Torrey Pines. His tee-to-green game has been middle of the road, and Friday he actually lost strokes to the field in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and on SG: Approach.

The difference, though, has been his short game. Scheffler’s second-round 67 included a hole-out for eagle from the sand on the par-5 sixth, and he sits second among the 72-man field in SG: Around the Green. One year after the putter appeared to be his lone weakness, he’s sixth in SG: Putting heading into the third round in San Diego.

Scheffler still trails leader Denny McCarthy by a shot heading into the weekend, but even with Rory McIlroy on his heels, the oddsmakers at FanDuel Sportsbook are clearly giving Scheffler an edge and making “Scheffler vs. the Field” a legitimate topic.

Updated odds to win The Genesis Invitational (via FanDuel):

• +100: Scottie Scheffler (-7)
• +400: Rory McIlroy (-5)
• +550: Davis Thompson (-8)
• +1200: Denny McCarthy (-6)
• +1200: Ludvig Åberg (-4)
• +5000: Patrick Rodgers (-4)

McIlroy is looking for his second win in as many TOUR starts to begin the new year, and he’s doing what you’d expect: He's second in SG: Off-the-Tee while averaging 312 yards off the tee. But the Ulsterman is also rolling the rock, ranked third in the field in SG: Putting through 36 holes. If both of those trends continue, I’d much rather have a stake in him at +400 than back Scheffler at this point at even odds.

As for the leader, Thompson tied the low round of the day with a second-round 66 and has powered his rise up the leaderboard with his approach play. Thompson has been solid on and around the greens, but with the irons he’s nearly +4.3 shots on the field – a startling turn of events for a player who entered the week ranked 163rd on TOUR in SG: Approach.

Thompson has one win to his credit last summer, and he closed 2024 with strength – but there’s too much firepower around him for me to anticipate that he’ll be able to maintain his current levels into the greens.

But so much of where this tournament goes from here relies on the steady shoulders of Scheffler. Should his short-game wizardry continue over the weekend, logic suggests some positive bounceback for the other (typically more reliable) parts of his game. The weather that bogged down the field in the opening round is expected to improve, and Scheffler will be able to take dead aim on a brawny layout where power and precision will be emphasized in equal measure.

Should the ball-striking lag, though, a nine-hole blowup the likes of which he experienced Sunday in Scottsdale could be enough to catapult him out of contention. Even money is a tough proposition for me to back, particularly for someone who’s not leading the tournament, and especially with someone like McIlroy in close pursuit.

If seeking an outside option, though, don’t look past Ludvig Åberg, who tied Thompson with a second-round 66 and seems to have finally broken out of his funk that dates back to his first nausea-ridden trip to Torrey Pines last month. The Swede opened with a 74 but bounced back in a big way, and while he only has one TOUR win to date he won’t blink in any potential Sunday showdown with either Scheffler or McIlroy. The +1200 price has some appeal, then, given that Åberg trails only four players at the halfway point and leads the field in both SG: Off-the-Tee and SG: Tee-to-Green.

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