Odds Outlook: Scottie Scheffler favored over Rory McIlroy as TOUR returns to Torrey Pines
5 Min Read
Written by Mike Glasscott
Betting favorites at Torrey Pines have not had a great track record in recent years – but it’s a trend Scottie Scheffler hopes to break this week at The Genesis Invitational.
The tournament has taken up temporary residency this week at Torrey Pines Golf Club in La Jolla, California. In the wake of the tragic wildfires that decimated the area surrounding The Riviera Country Club, the usual host site in Pacific Palisades, tournament officials relocated the event down the California coast. While both the North and South Courses are featured annually when Torrey Pines hosts the Farmers Insurance Open, this week all four rounds will be contested on the more difficult South Course.
Scheffler (+350) opens the week as a betting favorite among the 72-man field at FanDuel Sportsbook, having not played Torrey Pines three weeks ago when Harris English won the Farmers. Scheffler has made the cut just once from three previous Farmers starts (T20 finish in 2022) and he enters off a T25 finish last week in Arizona that included a back-nine 41 on Sunday. He finished T9 at Pebble Beach in his 2025 season debut.
Next on the board is a recent TOUR winner, with Rory McIlroy (+700) making his first start since a triumphant tour around Pebble Beach two weeks ago. Matching Scheffler with a T7 payday at the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines South, the Ulsterman cashed T5, T3, and T16 in three visits to the Farmers Insurance Open. His course form, including winning two weeks ago, did not knock Scheffler off the top spot as the favorite.
Skinny ribbons of fairways present the challenge at the demanding South Course, but Collin Morikawa (+1400) should be near the top of that list in finding them. The Southern California native ranked seventh in Driving Accuracy in 2024 and sat T11 in SG: Tee to Green. An excellent scrambler, his ability to get up-and-down to keep momentum rolling and limit crooked numbers is a strength this week. After cashing second in the first Signature Event at The Sentry, he posted T17 at Pebble Beach. Cashing T4 at the 2021 U.S. Open, his best result from three regular TOUR stops was solo third in 2023.
Justin Thomas (+2200) has won 15 times on the PGA TOUR but none since his second PGA Championship triumph at Southern Hills outside Tulsa, Oklahoma, in May of 2022. The 31-year-old, teeing it up for the fifth time in seven weeks in the new season, looks to break a trend of every other event inside the top 10. Jumping up the leaderboard into the top 10 at TPC Scottsdale with a hole-out eagle on the final hole, he signed for 65 (T6) and produced his seventh round of 67 or better from 24 loops in 2025. Making just his sixth start overall (Farmers plus U.S. Open) at Torrey Pines, his best result, T10, was on debut in 2014. All five made cuts, including T25 on his last visit in 2023, have cashed T25 or better.

Justin Thomas holes walk-off eagle at WM Phoenix Open
Ludvig Åberg (+2200) has experienced the highs and lows of Torrey Pines South in two visits over the last two seasons. The Swedish star arrived in 2024 on debut, played 54 holes on the South Course on 5-under-par, and signed for T9. Last month, he caught an illness, plus gusty winds, and posted rounds of 75-74-79 for T42. After withdrawing before Round 2 at Pebble Beach and not entering last week at the WM Phoenix Open, his health should not be a concern. Last season, he finished fourth in Total Driving and 15th SG: Tee to Green.
Making his 14th start on Torrey Pines, Hideki Matsuyama (+2200) holds the most on-course experience of the top choices at FanDuel. Extending his streak of playing the weekend to nine consecutive events at the Farmers Insurance Open in late January, the number expands to 10 straight, counting his T26 at the 2021 U.S. Open. Already a winner this season after demolishing The Plantation Course at Kapalua in record fashion on 35-under, his scrambling ability, No. 1 SG: Around the Green in 2024, will help again this week.
Harris English (+6000) won the Farmers at 8-under, the highest winning score since the weather-affected 2016 event. Sam Stevens (+9000) posted 68 in the final round, the lowest round of the day, to claim solo second, his best finish on TOUR. Andrew Novak (+12000),another fantastic short-game player, matched English with 66 in Round 3 and cashed solo third. Both Stevens and Novak are making their second consecutive Signature Event starts.
Thomas Detry (+6000) blistered the field to win by seven shots and secure his first PGA TOUR win last week at the WM Phoenix Open. The Belgian has made the cut at Torrey Pines in all three visits since 2023 and was T15 three weeks ago. San Diego native and Torrey Pines High School alum Michael Kim (+15000) shared second with Daniel Berger (+10000) and qualified into the field from the Aon Swing 5.
Other past champions at Torrey Pines include from Matthieu Pavon (+35000), Max Homa (+17000), Justin Rose (+17000) and Jason Day (+4500). Tournament host Tiger Woods opened at +25000 odds for what was to be his first official TOUR start of 2025, but he announced his withdrawal from the field on Monday.
Here's a look at some of the other notable odds for the rest of the field, via FanDuel:
- +3300: Sungjae Im
- +3500: Patrick Cantlay
- +4000: Jordan Spieth, Tom Kim, Tommy Fleetwood
- +4500: Taylor Pendrith, Shane Lowry
- +5000: Will Zalatoris, Russell Henley, Rasmus Højgaard, Robert MacIntyre, Tony Finau, Viktor Hovland, Sepp Straka
- +5500: Maverick McNealy
- +6000: Keegan Bradley
- +7000: Min Woo Lee
- +8000: Byeong Hun An, J.T. Poston, Sahith Theegala, Cameron Young
- +9000: Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, Adam Scott
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