Bolton: Pack your roster at Pebble Beach for second Signature Event
5 Min Read
Written by Rob Bolton
Some weeks, wind wins the tournament and whoever is posing for photographs with the trophy at the end merely is the sole survivor. Last week at Torrey Pines Golf Course was one of those weeks.
En route to his victory at the Farmers Insurance Open, Harris English performed like a surgeon and with the patience of one. No doubt, he benefited from opening in the North-South draw out of which a whopping 45 of the 70 who made the cut emerged.
The North Course averaged 2.27 strokes easier than the South in the first round. When the wind arrived in earnest for Thursday’s second round, the North played five strokes harder than it did in the opener and only 0.34 strokes lower than the South. Across the first two rounds, the North averaged 1.46 strokes lower than the South, easily the smallest difference of the last seven editions of the tournament.
We could not predict that, and gusts caused the 86-minute mid-round delay, but it’s an extreme example of how to adjust for it.
As a general rule, easier courses remain easier than their counterparts no matter the weather, but the difference in scoring averages relative to par narrows considerably. Touring professionals struggle in going low in the wind, but they know how to manage mistakes and can retain their position closer to par on tougher tracks in the same conditions.
This phenomenon has occurred numerous times at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am where Pebble Beach Golf Links bites biggest when weather isn’t cooperative. Fortunately, at least this early in the week, winds are forecast to lie down throughout, so the usual trepidation of swerving around the host course before the cut is unnecessary.
Build your roster in PGA TOUR Fantasy Golf presented by PGA TOUR Superstore with freedom. If you’re stumped on defaulting to a course that’s more likely to yield more fantasy points, lean into Pebble Beach. The objective for the entrants always is to pounce on the host course when it’s vulnerable. You’re advised to do the same.
Captain
The primary driver of this decision is your current position in your league. With no cut and an array of stars from which to choose, select the chalk that makes the most sense strategically.
Justin Thomas … There are many right answers but I’m remaining allegiant to the No. 1 in my Power Rankings. Because I’m in a position of pursuit and he’s unlikely to be the most-chosen Captain, it’s a timely opportunity for the dynamic combination.

Justin Thomas' great tee shot leads to birdie at The Sentry
Other considerations
- Collin Morikawa … No. 2 in the Power Rankings. When you look around at the other gods in the arena, he has the fewest question marks about the possibilities.
- Scottie Scheffler … No. 8. In my preseason primer, I reasoned that he should be the Captain every time you roster him for defensive purposes only. If you’re your league’s front-runner, that’s exactly what you should do despite doubt about his return from injury.
Rounding out the roster
With no cut, you could holster haymakers for other premier stops in Segment 1, but it’s too early in the season to worry about rationing starts, so try not to permit that to influence you.
The AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am is one of three remaining Signature Events in the Segment, all of which award winners with 70 FedExCup bonus points, but the last two will include a 36-hole cut, so chase the guaranteed bonus points now.
My starters
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jason Day
- Collin Morikawa
- Justin Thomas (C)
My bench
- Rory McIlroy (1)
- Scottie Scheffler (2)
Careful
For almost every tournament, a usually impressive subset of the field warrants avoiding, and it might be represented in my Power Rankings which are not written in the context of any fantasy golf format. In this section, I single out who demands pause and why.
Wyndham Clark … It’s not often when I’m cool on a defending champion but he’s still too inconsistent for my liking in weekly formats. There’s also the fact that he needed a course-record 60 at Pebble Beach to win a 54-hole tournament by one stroke. He was the outlier that hit.
Jordan Spieth … His five-month break after having surgery on his left wrist is ending, and he couldn’t have chosen a better backdrop. With a win among four top-four finishes, he’s third in all-time earnings in the tournament and at the top in this field. Presents as an aggressive chip in every format for obvious reasons but the juice is in the fact that he plans to play in all of the last three stops on the West Coast Swing.
Viktor Hovland … Respect his process as he reins in his approach over time. He’ll get there. It’s also easy to pass this week what with an uninspiring record in the tournament. He also opened 2025 with a T36 at The Sentry and then missed the cut at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic by four strokes. In his prior appearance at Emirates Golf Club, he prevailed in 2022.
Tom Hoge … The 2022 champ here is No. 15 in the Power Rankings and at double digits in ownership percentage early on, but the first-round leader at both of the stops in the Opening Drive hasn’t sizzled thereafter. And that’s despite 11 sub-70s in 12 rounds overall this year.
Returning to competition
Brandon Todd … Last pegged it at The American Express where he withdrew after two rounds. An explanation wasn’t released. A co-runner-up at Pebble Beach two years ago is the highlight among a handful of performances that prove his fit, but he’s gone seven straight starts upon arrival without a top 40. For observation only.
Seamus Power … The Irishman has taken a couple of weeks off to rest his back. It was an issue late in the fall as well. No doubt he’s motivated to capitalize on no cut this week, but let him go it alone until he eliminates the doubt.
Brandon Matthews … Committed to The Panama Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour. It’d mark his return to sanctioned competition since undergoing a double microdiscectomy in October of 2023. With four starts on a medical extension on the PGA TOUR, there’s reason to monitor his progress in the interim.
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