22D AGO

Benny and the Bets: What to do with Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth in season debuts

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Written by Ben Everill

The much-anticipated return of three of the PGA TOUR’s stars happens this week at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. But how should bettors react to the season debuts of Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth as it pertains to their bankroll? Let’s discuss.

World No. 1 Scheffler was delayed from starting his campaign after a much-publicized cooking accident on Christmas Day that saw him undergo hand surgery. So rather than be two starts into 2025, he is teeing it up for the first time – and still as a short-priced +450 betting favorite via FanDuel Sportsbook.

McIlroy has come back from his usual early season effort in Dubai, where this time he was T4, to start his PGA TOUR campaign fresh off his TGL debut where his Boston Common Golf lost to Tiger Woods’ Jupiter Links. McIlroy is +1100 and second on the odds board.

And then there is Spieth. The Texan is also returning from injury, having faced surgery in the off-season for a wrist issue. Here on a sponsor exemption, the longtime Pebble Beach contender is +6000 to win the event for a second time (2017).

With one round on Spyglass Hill Golf Course and three to come on Pebble Beach Golf Links in this now Signature Event, should this trio be on your betting card radar? As a start to our thoughts on each, let’s look at how they fared in their first start in each calendar year on the PGA TOUR and how long it took to notch up a win. (International starts not included, just PGA TOUR starts).

For Scheffler his first true season on TOUR was 2020, although he played a handful of events dating back as far as 2014. Spieth came to the TOUR in 2013 having played some starts as far back as 2010, the year McIlroy snared his first TOUR win.

-SchefflerMcIlroySpieth
YearFirst startFirst winFirst startFirst winFirst startFirst win
2024T56th startT669th start3rd-
2023T73rd startT3213th startT13-
2022T253rd startT109th startT2110th start
2021T13-T169th startMC8th start
20203rd-T3-T55-
2019T20-T46th startMC-
2018MC-MC5th start9th-
2017T27-T7-T34th start
2016MC-T2014th start1st1st start
2015--MC5th startT76th start
2014T22-T1710th start2nd-
2013--T33-MC16th start
2012--2nd2nd startMC-
2011--T177th startT32-
2010--T176th startT16-

While the trio has combined for a total of 14 top-10s in first starts on the PGA TOUR in a calendar year, only once (Spieth in 2016 at The Sentry), have they come out of the blocks with a win.

During his last three dominant years, Scheffler has needed at least two tournament reps before winning, and last year he needed five before a triumph at Bay Hill. And despite having a lot of early success in the Middle East over the years, McIlroy has needed at least eight events on the PGA TOUR schedule to go by before his first win of the last four years.

So, when it comes to betting around them this week, we can slate them into red light, yellow light or green light – but who slots where?

Yellow light: Scottie Scheffler +450

My initial thought was – if ever there is a week to fade Scheffler, this could be it. But then I remembered how many times the Texan burned me a year ago.

Scheffler has only played this event once before, last season, where he was T6. But remember, the tournament was reduced to 54 holes due to weather, a fact that happened before the players had a chance to potentially attack for a higher position on the leaderboard. Scheffler was four shots off the lead at the time, thanks to an average 2-under 70 on Saturday. He had, however, shot 64 on the layout Friday. Who’s to say he couldn’t have chased down Wyndham Clark and others on Sunday?

The reason he sits in “yellow light” territory, and not green, is his price. At +450 and with the unknown of his form returning from the hand injury, there is a lot of risk for little return. New-season rust can exist even without surgical repair and I’d like to see how Scheffler plays in the opening round before deciding where, if at all, my hard-earned would go on him.


Scottie Scheffler’s 2024 winning moments
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      Scottie Scheffler’s 2024 winning moments


      Red light: Jordan Spieth +6000

      One could be easily seduced into Spieth at Pebble Beach where he has a win and top 10s in six of his 12 starts in this tournament. But the victory came back in 2017 and while the run of T9-T3-second from 2020 through 2022 can appear intoxicating when paired with +6000 odds – you have to put that up against his T63 and T39 from the last two attempts.

      Spieth is a quality player and knows these courses more than most, but surely his first event back is going to have some ups and downs. If you must look at Spieth, you could do so in place markets but I’d need plus-money odds to even consider him to finish in the top half of this 80-man field.

      Red light: Rory McIlroy +1100

      Until McIlroy appears to embrace the pro-am as much as others do, I can’t advocate for him as a chalk option. A T66 here a year ago through just 54 holes and a missed cut in his previous tournament visit in 2018 bring little confidence even if he was just T4 in the Dubai Desert Classic.

      As shown in the table above, McIlroy has not been a fast starter on the PGA TOUR in recent times, instead saving his runs for later in the season. I think a similar trend happens here.

      So if neither of the three are green lights on my betting card… who is?

      Green light

      Outright: Ludvig Åberg +1800, Jason Day +3500

      That’s right… I’m running it back this week!

      This pair were my outright selections for the Farmers Insurance Open, and despite the fact Åberg crashed from the lead to outside the top 40 following an untimely illness, and Day couldn’t buy a putt for the week, I’m going back to the well.

      Åberg was runner-up here at Pebble Beach a year ago and – in my mind – the man most likely to win had the tournament gone the full 72 holes. Nothing against Wyndham Clark and his incredible 60 on Saturday last year, but backing up after that effort would have been really tough even for the former U.S. Open champ.

      I’m banking on Åberg to have recovered from the ailment that saw him unwell and doubling over at Torrey Pines. The Saturday finish last week certainly helps in that regard.

      As for Day, his T32 at Torrey was tough to watch because the Aussie hit the ball well. He ranked 11th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach but was a dismal 66th of those who made the cut in SG: Putting, losing -5.718 strokes on the greens in just three rounds on Torrey Pines South.

      Knowing the man he will be livid at those numbers and ready to atone at a happy hunting in Pebble Beach. He has 11 top-15 results from 14 tries in this tournament dating back to 2008 and was in the mix a year ago at T6 hoping to get after the leaders on Sunday before the weather thwarted that. Before the Torrey issues, Day was T3 at The American Express.

      Place Markets: Patrick Cantlay +160 Top 10, Sam Burns Top 10 +275

      It’s time for some chalk to stand up and be in contention albeit at short odds. Cantlay is not only coming off a fifth place at The American Express but he’s been inside the top 11 in his last four trips to Pebble Beach. He should be a contender for this title but I’ll take the conservative option.

      Burns was 10th a year ago, in the 54-hole event, and the data crunchers at the TOUR are suggesting he is actually the current best fit for this course rotation. His combination of excellent SG: Putting and his SG: Approach, plus his efforts off the tee on Par 5s, is what our numbers gurus say will help Burns be the man this week.

      Benny's betting card

      • Outright: Ludvig Åberg +1800
      • Outright: Jason Day +3500
      • Top 10: Patrick Cantlay +160
      • Top 10: Sam Burns +275
      • Longshots: See Sleepers article on Tuesday!

      For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.

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