Benny and the Bets: Ditch favorites, back longshots at The American Express
3 Min Read
Scrub the chalk off the board, this is the week to think of the longshot.
The American Express at La Quinta has a three-course rotation (PGA WEST's Stadium Course, Nicklaus Tournament Course and La Quinta Country Club) with a pro-am component, making it a downright birdie-fest and the avenue for a longshot winner to shine.
In the last eight editions of the tournament, four have seen winners at odds of +15000 or higher, and two others were +5000 and +6000. Only the two Jon Rahm wins came as a pre-tournament favorite at short odds.
So despite the fact we have the likes of Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Sam Burns, Tony Finau and Tom Kim all teeing it up, and all with legitimate reasons why they could prove victorious – I suggest a different betting route.
While my first instinct was (as usual) drawn to the top names above, it dawned on me that this is a week to approach differently. With all the irregular factors on the board, and the recent betting odds of most winners, why not spread the bankroll further, at higher odds, and just enjoy the shootout?
As a golf bettor, this event can conceivably be a frustrating one. Some reasons include:
- The chaos of the three-course rotation: What layout is playing harder? Is the weather similar each day? Who plays better on which track?
- ShotLink data over time only pertains to the Stadium Course. So Strokes Gained analysis has to be used with caution when checking history and course fits.
- There is a pro-am portion of the event, which brings with it slower rounds plus slower green speeds and easier pin locations across the first three rounds.
At the end of the day, some of the big names will still be in the mix. Thomas was T3 a year ago and Burns has three recent results of T11 or better. Cantlay holds two recent top 10s and Im is on a run of six top 25s at La Quinta.
But Nick Dunlap at +30000 won it all last year. Hudson Swafford did so at +15000 in 2022 and +5000 in 2017. Si Woo Kim was +6000 in 2021. And then there was +20000 Andrew Landry in 2020 and +100000 Adam Long in 2019.
Nick Dunlap recounts his winning putt at The American Express
The frustration of watching a supremely talented Xander Schauffele, who advocated at +1100 last year, get bested by an amateur at the time was an annoyance I could have avoided. Yes, every win in the golf betting world is cause for celebration, but sweating a low-odds favorite with all the variables in play just appears ato be stress not worth having.
The reality is that the variables, and the ripe scoring conditions, open up the result to more of the field. In major championship conditions, the chances of a longshot diminish. But with the courses set up for scoring and smaller mistakes less harshly punished, it’s wide open for somewhat to get hot for a few days.
Using a theoretical $50 bankroll to put into play with this week in the outright markets, a regular week with this field might look like this:
- $20 on Thomas at +1200 – possible payout of $260 (profit $230)
- $10 on Burns at +1400 – possible payout of $150 (profit $110)
- $10 on Cantlay at +1800 – possible pay out of $190 (profit $150)
- $5 on Dunlap at +5000 – possible payout of $255 (profit $210)
- $5 on Hadwin at +7500 – possible payout of $380 (profit $335)
You’ve got five possible winners to cheer for and a possible profit somewhere between $110 to $335 for your $50 outlay.
But what if you spread your $50 out across the three starting rotations, accounting for any bias that arrives, and across many more players? For example:
- $5 on Dunlap at +5000 – possible payout of $255 (profit $210)
- $5 on Harman at +5500 – possible payout of $280 (profit $235)
- $5 on Poston at +6000 – possible payout of $305 (profit $260)
- $5 on Hoge at +6000 – possible payout of $305 (profit $260)
- $5 on Ben Griffin at +6000 – possible payout of $305 (profit $260)
- $5 on Hadwin at +7500 – possible payout of $380 (profit $335)
- $5 on Bezuidenhout at +8000 – possible payout of $405 (profit $360)
- $5 on van Rooyen at +12000 – possible payout of $605 (profit $560)
- $5 on Suber at +12000 – possible payout of $605 (profit $560)'
- $2 on Capan III at +15000 – possible payout of $302 (profit $254)
- $2 on Lanto Griffin at +27000 – possible payout of $542 (profit $494)
- $1 on Molinari at +75000 – possible payout of $751 (profit $702)
Now you have 12 players to cheer on, for the same outlay, but a chance for profit between $210-$702.
Alternatively, reduce your usual spending. Make it $25 instead of $50 and push the extra bucks into other endeavors, or perhaps another week – maybe a Signature Event or major championship where the variables are lessened. You can still set up a card like above with smaller unit sizes.
What would my card look like? I’d treat it like Europe’s “each way” markets, with a splash on certain players for both the outright and top-10 markets. So with my theoretical $50 I’d pick five longshot players, and place $5 bets on each to both win and to Top 10 and then sit back and enjoy the show.
Benny's Betting Card
Outright and Top-10 finishes (including ties):
- Adam Hadwin +7500/+500
- J.T Poston +6000/+450
- Tom Hoge +6000/+450
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +8000/+550
- Frankie Capan III +15000/+850
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Senior Writer, Golfbet Follow Ben Everill on Twitter.