TGL betting preview: Can The Bay Golf Club upset New York Golf Club in TGL opening match?

The much-anticipated launch of TGL is here, as The Bay Golf Club take on New York Golf Club from the SoFi Center in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. With it comes a few new ways to wager on golf!

While there is an element of flying blind as we haven't seen this revolutionary version of the sport in action – a combination of real golf with shots into an oversized simulator – it also could present a chance to cash in on early-season form.

Before a ball is hit inside the 250,000-square-foot arena we find Los Angeles Golf Club, with Collin Morikawa, Sahith Theegala, Tommy Fleetwood and Justin Rose as the +340 favorites to win it all in the season-long futures market via FanDuel Sportsbook. Of the six TGL teams, the top four will qualify for the postseason.

Boston Common Golf (Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley, Adam Scott) are next, followed by New York GC (Xander Schauffele, Matt Fitzpatrick, Rickie Fowler, Cameron Young).

Odds to win 2025 TGL season-long title (via FanDuel)

• +340: Los Angeles Golf Club
• +360: Boston Common Golf
• +380: New York Golf Club
• +450: Atlanta Drive GC
• +470: The Bay Golf Club
• +650: Jupiter Links Golf Club

Atlanta Drive (Justin Thomas, Patrick Cantlay, Billy Horschel, Lucas Glover) and The Bay (Ludvig Åberg, Wyndham Clark, Shane Lowry, Min Woo Lee) are seen as underdogs to take the title, but less so than Tiger Woods’ Jupiter Links who bring up the rear at +650 odds. Woods is joined by Max Homa, Tom Kim and Kevin Kisner.

But let’s focus on the opening match, with The Bay against New York. With just three players from each squad playing in a match, we see Min Woo Lee sitting for The Bay and Cameron Young out for New York.

Odds to win TGL Match 1

• -138: New York
• +100: The Bay

Each match consists of three players from each team going head-to-head in a 15-hole match featuring two different formats – nine holes of Triples and six holes of Singles – across a selection of custom-designed holes.

Triples is an alternate-shot format where all three players will take turns teeing off from hole to hole and rotate hitting shots until the hole is finished. In Singles we will see Fowler vs. Lowry on the 10th and 13th hole, Fitzpatrick vs. Clark on hole No. 11 and 14 while Schauffele and Åberg will clash on holes 12 and 15.

Every hole is worth one point (unless the Hammer is used). The team with the most points at the end of the match wins. New York is favored to take the opening match in the eyes of oddsmakers.

What is the “Hammer?” It’s a wrinkle that mimics the very popular gambling game among amateur and pro golfers alike.

The Bay holds the honor on Tuesday and will start with the Hammer, which raises the stakes of a hole by one point when played and accepted. The other team then takes possession of the Hammer and could choose to throw it on the same hole, making the hole worth three points, or hold on to it until later in the match.

Teams can decline the Hammer, but by doing so concede the hole and the points on offer. However, teams can’t decline the Hammer when it is thrown before the first tee shot on a given hole. The team that wins the Triples session will receive a point, as will the winner of the Singles session.

The match will go to overtime if tied after 15 holes, with teams competing in a best two-out-of-three closest-to-the-pin competition to determine the overall winner. Match winners will receive two points, while an overtime loss will be worth one point and no points will be awarded for a loss in regulation.

Both teams have two players who were in Maui for The Sentry last week. The Bay had Åberg finish T5 in Kapalua and Clark a respectable T15. Fitzpatrick was T24, while pre-tournament favorite Schauffele was a disappointing T30 on a track where he previously dominated.

Are those results enough for you to consider the +100 underdogs? Perhaps it could signal The Bay as an option to go 1-up first, a market where both teams are priced at -114.

The other markets currently up and running at FanDuel are To Lead After 3 Holes, To Lead after 6 Holes, and To Lead After 9 Holes (or to win the Triples format). Odds are currently:

To Lead After 3 holes

• +125: Tie
• +190: New York
• +200: The Bay

To Lead After 6 holes

• +140: New York
• +165: The Bay
• +200: Tie

To Lead After 9 holes

• +125: New York
• +135: The Bay
• +290: Tie

Match analysis

If I was looking for an upset play, it might be on The Bay to start fast and have the lead through three holes (+200) before the New York boys find their rhythm. There is a par 4, par 3 and a par 5 in each three-hole bracket on the front nine.

The Bay might have a distance advantage on the longer holes, but New York has the statistically better players on par 3s from 2024. Schauffele led the PGA TOUR in Par 3 Scoring, with Fitzpatrick ranked eighth.

Given they will play the Triples format though, we really need players with good all-around games and few weaknesses. In 2024, Schauffele (second), Fitzpatrick (60th) and Fowler (134th) had varying success in terms of Strokes Gained: Total for the New York crew. The Bay players – well, Åberg was seventh, Clark 11th and Lowry 40th. Are they being underestimated?

If live markets pop up for the Singles portion, I could make arguments for Clark and Lowry to get The Bay home. Schauffele is the wildcard. Was Maui a sign he’s enjoyed his off-season and needs a little more time to hit his stride? Or was it just an anomaly, and will 2024 Xander come forth and smoke all who stand in his way?

I’d certainly suggest conservative thinking in this first look at the competition, getting the lay of the land, seeing how close things correlate to real golf and real form, but a small outlay on the underdogs wouldn’t be the worst play. Back The Bay (+100) to win the opening match.

Good luck!

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