Benny and the Bets: Tasty factors that might prevent a Hideki Matsuyama Hawaiian double

Winning on the PGA TOUR is hard. Really hard. Winning in back-to-back weeks is clearly even harder, but Hideki Matsuyama fans can rejoice in the news that it’s not impossible.

Since 2000, there have been 28 occasions where the hot hand stayed scorching for another week, backing up one win with another. We are not talking about consecutive starts, where a player has a few weeks between tee times, but from one venue, straight to another. Little time to celebrate the amazing achievement, but instead back on course and back to work.

Matsuyama was the record-breaking winner at The Sentry last week, filling up the cup with 35 birdies in four rounds. As a former Sony Open in Hawaii winner, he now turns up to Waialae Country Club as the +900 betting favorite to join Justin Thomas and Ernie Els as winners of the Aloha double in consecutive weeks.

The most recent back-to-back week winner was, unsurprisingly, Scottie Scheffler. The world no. 1 actually pulled it off twice in 2024. He was the victor at the RBC Heritage right after winning the Masters, and prior to that captured a win at THE PLAYERS Championship on the heels of his triumph at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.

Before that, we saw that form maintained in the 2023 FedExCup finish. Viktor Hovland got hot to win the 2023 BMW Championship and TOUR Championship, and just prior Lucas Glover had peeled off the FedEx St Jude Championship after his Wyndham Championship triumph.

Of the 28 occasions, seven of them were by Tiger Woods and three came from Vijay Singh. Rory McIlroy and Phil Mickelson also pulled off the feat twice. So it’s 17 players who have managed the feat 28 times.

Working in Matsuyama’s favor is the fact eight out of the last 11 Sony Open winners played in Kapalua the week before winning on Oahu. Similarly, 12 of the last 15 winners finished their Sony Open week inside the top 10 of Strokes Gained: Putting, and Matsuyama was third in this metric last week, seemingly making almost everything he looked at.

We must point out that, interestingly, the last two Sony Open winners bucked both those trends, so perhaps we are seeing a shift that would work against the Japanese star.

But here’s where you get my personal take from experience – one that might have you holding off hitting Matsuyama at least at the short odds to start. One of the intangibles the data can’t show you.

The biggest reason Matsuyama even plays in this event… is the food. Of all the venues on the PGA TOUR, Matsuyama targets the Sony Open to get his fix of great food, both Japanese and other varieties. It’s his biggest focus! And coming off a win – you can be sure he will be splurging on some fantastic meals in Honolulu. For those looking for a recommendation – I can vouch for his suggestions of "Doraku Sushi," "Tsukuneya Robata Grill" and "Aloha Table!"

Now this sounds like it could be inconsequential, right? Especially since he’s already proven he can win in this city. But indulge me a little. The margins on the TOUR are razor thin and if Matsuyama is filling his tank every night with delightful delicacies, he might just be a touch slower on the course. He’s usually one to spend extra hours on the range, not looking for some delicious free-range meats. It’s enough for me to hold off on his opening odds and to decide where he stands from that point on.

A little fun aside, more consequential is that weight of history – and also his putting. I just don’t know if I can trust that he’s completely turned it around. The year he won at Waialae he led the field in SG: Putting. In his other seven most recent trips to this event, he’s ranked 55th or worse in the same metric during his efforts. I’m not saying he can’t win; I’m saying I’m not prepared to jump on at low odds with 72 holes to play.

Where, then, am I shifting my focus? Last year I was on the Corey Conners train, given he was on a four-year run of top-12s but he stalled out to a T57. Much like Matsuyama, his putting at Waialae hasn’t been great, ranking 73rd and 74th the last two trips. But... he led the field in Maui last week on the greens!

Rather than look at last week’s putting as a positive for this week, I’m worried that Conners was not at his best in SG: Tee-to-Green and that is perhaps the biggest factor in Sony Open success. Seven of the last 10 winners were inside the top five of SG: Tee-to-Green, including the last four in a row. The last two winners led the field. If I was getting better than +1400, I might consider him, but like Matsuyama, I am going to keep my powder dry on him to start.

Instead, I’m going to target one of the runner-ups who fell in a playoff last year in Byeong Hun An. At +2800 the value is better and he’s coming off that second and a T12 the year prior, gaining +2.298 strokes on the field per round in those eight rounds. His putting around Waialae has been great and he won in Korea last October and was a consistent performer on TOUR in 2024.

For even more juice, I’m giving 2024 Sentry winner Chris Kirk a look. With a runner-up in 2021 and a third in 2023 at the Sony Open, plus a reasonable T18 backing up his Maui win last year, Kirk at +5500 is a long shot worth firing on. He was also second at Waialae back in 2014.

Last week, we failed on our outright picks but picked up both props with Sungjae Im collecting on a top 10 and Cam Davis doing likewise on a top 20. Let’s try to keep the undefeated streak going.

First, I’d add Kirk in the Top 10 market at +400. Another is the two-time winner from last season Austin Eckroat at +320. He’s +1.173 Strokes Gained per round in the last two years at Sony Open.

To finish off I like Maverick McNealy in FanDuel Group B betting at +320. McNealy was on my shortlist to win the tournament, but FanDuel has given me an out by placing him in a group bet. He has to beat Keegan Bradley, Robert MacIntyre, Sahith Theegala and Si Woo Kim. I’m leaning on his putter to do just that.

Benny's betting card

• Outright: Byeong Hun An +2800, Chris Kirk +5500
• Top 10: Chris Kirk +400, Austin Eckroat +320
• Group Betting: Maverick McNealy +320 (over Bradley, MacIntyre, Theegala and S.W. Kim)

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