Benny and the Bets: Justin Thomas leads 'comeback kid' options as opportunity knocks in Maui

As the calendar turns to 2025, plenty of us around the world are looking to take things up a notch in the new year with resolutions. As golf bettors, that includes pinpointing those players who can hit the ground running – especially those coming off down years, as that is where value is found.

While Scottie Scheffler might have a hard time improving on his sensational 2024 – especially after his Christmas mishap led him to withdraw from The Sentry – plenty of other TOUR players are candidates for big rebound or comeback years. And the Opening Drive, with The Sentry, followed by the Sony Open in Hawaii, serves as our first chance to pounce.

With Scheffler gone, an opportunity has well and truly presented itself for the 60 players teeing it up at Kapalua. And the big names have a chance to set the tone early. While Chris Kirk was a 200-1 longshot winner a year ago, this time around I see a return to more of a chalk winner. Prior to Kirk, the highest odds for a winner in the last decade was +3000. I’ll be very surprised if we go outside +5000 this time around.

The list of names of those who failed to win on TOUR last season might surprise you. The likes of Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Åberg, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Sahith Theegala, Adam Scott, Sam Burns, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im and Justin Thomas all went winless. That’s what can happen while Scheffler was so busy racking up trophies.

We could see them all win in 2025. But for me, it’s Thomas who leads the charge as a potential early drought-breaker in Maui.

As a past champion at both events in Hawaii, and with him trending back up in 2024 despite not winning since the 2022 PGA Championship, Thomas speaks to me as one guy who is stinging to prove Scheffler isn’t the only name to focus on in golf.

We saw Thomas with a chance to take on Scheffler at the recent Hero World Challenge only to fall short… but Scheffler isn’t in Maui. Thomas doesn’t take kindly to losing. And the Bahamas effort will only fuel him more.

The 15-time TOUR winner ranked inside the top 10 on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, Approach and Around-the-Green last season and sat 25th in SG: Total despite an abysmal rank of 174th in SG: Putting. It is clear that an improvement on the greens, much like Scheffler managed last season, could take Thomas from the periphery of contention to a multiple-time winner.

As a new father, there could be some concern around his focus with lack of sleep and mind heading elsewhere… but you also get the perspective boost new parents get. He won in Kapalua in 2017 and 2020 and has three further top fives in the event, making him a clear option in the outright market even at the chalky +1100 price.

While I am also becoming bullish on Hovland (+2000) returning to form at some point in 2025, the news of his broken toe in Maui means we need to hold off on him for a little while to see how the 2023 FedExCup champion deals with the injury. At +2000, we are not getting enough value just yet.

Morikawa’s recent Maui form – never outside the top seven in five attempts – makes him the second favorite at +1000. He’s another player who didn’t get the win last season despite great play, and I can totally see him avenging the 2023 runner-up finish where he choked away a huge lead over the closing stretch. But can he make enough putts to justify taking the short odds?

I see him, like betting favorite Xander Schauffele (+500), as a wait-and-see option. Not because they can’t win, but because the odds are hard to pounce on when we can get a little more juice elsewhere. Schauffele though, has to be part of any PGA TOUR Fantasy game lineups.

At +1800, Im is intriguing considering he has been inside the top 10 in Maui in three of his four trips. His odds have come in from +2200 in recent days. And Theegala, the runner-up a year ago, has moved from a decent +4000 into +3000 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Despite the heavy change, he is still a player to look at in outright and place markets.

If you are considering longshot options, I’d look to some more comeback kid storylines... but tread lightly. Jason Day at +4500 has plenty of Maui experience, as does Max Homa (+6000). Homa looked lost for most of 2024 but did finish inside the top 15 each of his last three trips to Kapalua. Day was T10 a year ago and once shot 62 on the par 73 Plantation Course.

Outside of betting on name, not form, like above, the likes of Matt McCarty, Cam Davis and Nick Dunlap can be part of your thoughts. McCarty is already a winner coming straight from the Korn Ferry Tour ranks, while Rookie of the Year Dunlap surprised everyone by winning twice last season, and Davis has come from his native Australia where he played competitive golf through the end of the year.

For further analysis on outside-the-box value picks, check out my Sleepers column this week!

Benny's betting card

• Outrights: Justin Thomas +1100, Sahith Theegala +3000
• Top 10: Sungjae Im +140
• Top 20: Cam Davis +225, Matt McCarty +210

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.