Benny and the five bets I wish I made

Whether it's fishing or sports betting, the best stories are always the ones that got away. And boy, did plenty of golf bets get away from me, and I’m sure many of you, this PGA TOUR season.

You know the drill. The postmortem of any golf tournament for golf bettors runs a similar pattern. It’s amazing how many of your friends were apparently on Rory McIlroy at the U.S. Open, or Akshay Bhatia at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, before they missed crucial putts down the stretch.

I’ve got stories aplenty to regale you with when it comes to betting woes. Just last week I advocated Mackenzie Hughes plus Daniel Berger and Luke Clanton at The RSM Classic. Where did they finish? T5, T2 and T2. So close, yet so far.

But what about betting regret?

I am prepared to forgive myself for the last of our 47 TOUR events. Maverick McNealy had a history of not closing the deal on Sunday. But what other bets that got away are still gnawing at my soul? What non-selections appear so obvious in hindsight that I’m still debating them with my friends weeks months after the fact?

As we approach Thanksgiving, I’ve sliced a huge slice of humble pie as I go over some of the greatest misses I had this season.

1. Scottie Scheffler: +1100 after Round 3 at THE PLAYERS Championship

Oh boy… where do I start with this one? Prior to Scheffler winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard the week before his title defense at TPC Sawgrass, I decided to publicly voice my bold take on the world No. 1 being nothing but a brilliant front-runner. A boring winner. A player without killer instinct when it came to fighting head-to-head or coming from behind. In fact, at the halfway point at Bay Hill, when he had come back from five down to get back on top, I still questioned him.

“Does the world No. 1 have a killer instinct where he takes hold of the tournament and stomps on the neck of others … he struggled in the head-to-head furnace battle … it’s his tournament to lose from here given how pure he strikes it but I worry he still might…,” Ben Everill, Draws & Fades: Is Scottie Scheffler a true finisher? Time to find out

He promptly shoved that take right up my… you get the picture. But a week later, you’d think I might have learned from the scorched earth he left when he trailed by five at TPC Sawgrass with a round to go.

When asked if he had a chance, I point-blank said no. He was five back of a surging Xander Schauffele no less. He was also behind other major winners in Wyndham Clark, Brian Harman and Matt Fitzpatrick. It would be dumb to take those odds! An 8-under 64 later, I was once again left with egg on my face… the sign of more to come when it came to the Texan.

2. Xander Schauffele: +1600 for the PGA Championship

It was still 2023 when I first voiced that bettors should look to Schauffele to win a major championship in 2024. That wasn’t a hot take – he was arguably the best player in the sport without a major. But I vowed to have him on my card for all of the majors just the same.

I backed this up in the aftermath of his PLAYERS collapse, where he let Scheffler run down his five-shot advantage, while others scorned. Rather than dwell on his numerous near misses, I saw a parallel between Schauffele and the evolution of Jason Day from 2011-2016. It wasn’t a matter of if, more just when. “Keep the faith,” he told me at the time.

I stayed resolute and picked him for the Masters and when that didn’t pan out, I still said he would definitely be my guy for Valhalla. As Schauffele surged to a big lead at Quail Hollow the week before the PGA Championship, my only regret was that so many others would also be on him for his first major. And then I watched in horror as Rory McIlroy stomped him on Sunday.

It wasn’t just the loss. It was the seemingly meek surrender under pressure. Had I just taken that Sunday and played football in the park with my kids, rather than seeing McIlroy turn a deficit into a five-shot win (including a double on the last), as Schauffele appeared devoid of answers… I might have still been stoic.

Instead, at the 11th hour, after months of promoting, I caved. I’ll never forget the smirk Schauffele gave me when I told him as much after the Californian won his first major championship just six days later.

“I told you to keep the faith…”

3. Hideki Matsuyama: +12500 after Round 3 at The Genesis Invitational

This one hurts because of the missed chance to take a crack at enormous odds with very little outlay.

Riviera Country Club can always be tough to close on and when a previously dominant Patrick Cantlay played poorly down the stretch on Saturday, seeing a five-shot lead reduced to two with a round to play, I should have seen the potential warning signs.

Instead, influenced by the best of his early rounds which I witnessed up close and personal, I stubbornly figured he would cruise to victory. I didn’t even consider looking down the odds board. Schauffele was two back but only +275, and Zalatoris (+450) was coming back from injury. Day was four back at +2000 – no thanks, because I knew he was not comfortable at Riv.

But six back, at +125000, was Matsuyama. A long shot for sure, but a player who had four previous top-11 finishes at the venue and is a former Masters winner. History has shown a connection between Riviera winners and Augusta players. This was the throwaway $1 bet I should have seen coming.

4. Aaron Rai: +3500 at the Wyndham Championship

I did the wet weather research. I found out Rai was a mudder. I said as much in my column but in the end, conservatively placed the Englishman in my Top 10 slot instead of the outright market. They say you shouldn’t complain about your wins, but this one certainly felt like leaving meat on the bone.

“Three of his five-season top 10s came on wet tracks and he ranks third on TOUR in Driving Accuracy, a key stat this week given four of the last five winners here ranked inside the top four of this metric on way to victory," Ben Everill, Benny and the Bets: Finding ‘mudders’ ahead of rain-soaked Wyndham Championship

Why didn’t I listen to myself?

5. Cam Davis: +5500 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic

Any time I miss an Australian winner on the PGA TOUR, it’s a shock. My homeland bias is a tough one to shake, and believe it or not I have actively been trying to – because betting with your head is always smarter than betting with your heart.

But this one… this one should have been on the radar.

Davis was the 2021 champion in Detroit and at great odds considering the strength of the field. He had drifted to that number because of average form prior, but as someone who knows Davis, I should’ve countered those concerns with the knowledge he is a streaky player who waits for the summer to shift gears.

While the reality is Akshay Bhatia helped him out with a three-putt on the 72nd hole, Davis was the one applying pressure for that to happen. It stings to not have been on him, even more so as one of my Golfbet colleagues was on Bhatia – and the trash talk after could have been monumental!

As we head into the off-season I’d love to hear your hindsight bets. What missed opportunity is still getting gnawing at you weeks later? Let us know @Golfbet on X or Instagram.

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