Prop Farm: Hot hand theory means a Seamus Power play, Justin Lower love at The RSM Classic

The final event of the FedExCup Fall, The RSM Classic at the Sea Island Resort in St. Simons Island, Georgia is here and the young phenom, Ludvig Åberg is back to defend his 2023 title.

Åberg had that nagging knee injury for the better part of last summer and had it cleaned up surgically just a couple of months ago. The last time we saw him in action was at the TOUR Championship, which concluded on Sept. 1.

Evidently, golf fans and bettors are happy to see him back. Senior Data Analyst at BetMGM Drew O’Dell notes: “Ludvig Åberg is No. 1 in ticket count at 8.4%. He’s second in handle at 7.2% and is our second largest liability this week.”

“The public is supporting Åberg in the outright market,” said renowned Las Vegas golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman. “They’re also backing Matt McCarty – but just a lot of small stuff. Coming off knee surgery, first tournament back for Åberg, I’d be surprised if this wasn’t just simply a return to competitive golf and not the full-out effort.”

Sherman went on to point out that he had seen some sharp play on Carson Young in the outright market. I was on Young in Mexico when he missed out on a playoff by one shot at the World Wide Technology Championship.

Hall of Fame bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich chipped in, saying, “Austin Eckroat, J.T. Poston and Jacob Bridgeman are getting popped good in the outrights. Åberg winning would be good for the house.”

A BetMGM sportsbook in Las Vegas, Mandalay Bay, Senior Manager Tristan Davis said, “Still on the quieter side as far as the activity on the outrights but Åberg and Davis Thompson have been the top two in the market. For more of a roughie, we have seen some interest for Lucas Glover at +4600.”

“Glover is tied with Åberg for handle percentage and is our largest liability,” said O’Dell.

A slightly different tune in Atlantic City where at the BetMGM sportsbook at The Borgata, Director Thomas Gable reports, “For the outright winner market, we have some liability on Harris English at +3300 and Seamus Power at +3300. Åberg at +1000 isn’t being backed as much as he was earlier in the year.”

Personally, I played Power to win it all this week. He’s had a nice fall with two 11th place finishes, a 13th and a 23rd last week in Bermuda – a course he won at in 2022. He’s been fifth and fourth here at Sea Island in his last two visits. I jokingly told Gable, he can count on Power to finish second this week as I’ve had the runner-up the last two weeks in a row.

I also played Justin Lower, who finished runner-up in Los Cabos and backed it up with a fifth-place finish last week in Bermuda. I’m riding the hot hand here, taking a shot with him to keep it going. I also went with an old veteran and Sea Island resident, Matt Kuchar, this week along with Daniel Berger and Michael Kim for an outright win.

Gable added another note on the Irishman who calls Las Vegas home, saying, “We have seen respected money come in on Power in his matchup against Ben Griffin. He was -110 and is now -120.”

Speaking of head-to-head matchups, Davis has had a few catch his eye at Mandalay Bay. “The best sharp matchup bets have been Sam Stevens to beat Matt McCarty, -110 to -120. Chad Ramey to beat Brendon Todd, +110 to Even, and Joe Highsmith to beat Chandler Phillips, -105 to -120.”

And some finish position activity for Bogdanovich. “They’re betting Thompson and Denny McCarthy on the ‘YES’ for a Top 10 finish. Eric Cole, Gary Woodland and Keith Mitchell all getting hit to the ‘YES’ for a Top 20.”

Sherman said he is getting, “Sharp play on two matchups. Thompson to beat McCarthy and Cole to beat Sepp Straka.”

I always find it interesting to look at what Sherman posts for a winning score proposition bet here in Las Vegas. Over the last eight editions of The RSM Classic, the average winning score has been 20.5-under par. The wind is supposed to blow pretty well on Thursday and Friday, in the neighborhood of 15-18 mph. The forecast for the weekend is very calm with winds expected to dip well under 10 mph. Sherman’s number for a winning score this week is Under/Over 259.5 – or 20.5-under par.

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