Bolton: Back surging Wesley Bryan on the bubble at The RSM Classic

Ludvig Åberg at +1000 to win is mad respect.

Sure, he’s Åberg and he’s the defending champion of The RSM Classic, but he hasn’t played competitively in two and a half months. This marks his first action since having surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee, so perhaps I should be surprised that he’s as long as he is even though BetMGM Sportsbook wants to be able to keep the lights on come Monday.

The Swede is No. 4 in my Power Rankings, and even that feels too generous too soon in a vacuum, but as much as I’m not advising more than a fraction of unit in his outright market, it’s not like I’m dismissing his potential impact.

Åberg first publicized that he was dealing with pain during the week of the Masters seven months ago. All he did was finish second in what was his debut. Leaning into some hyperbole (even though it’s almost entirely true), no one does that! Although he proved that the learning curve of Augusta National has nothing on him, the conservative in me is concerned about rust on a pair of racetracks.

Both the Seaside and the Plantation Courses will yield high percentages of greens in regulation. That’s the first of a classic one-two punch anchored by a putting contest that will follow. Yes, Åberg solved the greens of Augusta National as a debutant, but he was in a rhythm of competition at the time.

The second not-so-insignificant variable facing the much larger field of 156 at Sea Island is the wind that promises to cause pause at times at least through Friday. No doubt that Åberg will reconnect with the feels in the interim, but default into a top 10. He’s still +100 for that, so consider the kickback found money. If you didn’t want to bank it, increase your outlay of units by one to accommodate for it, and let ‘er rip.

For the record, the top three in my Power Rankings of Ben Griffin (No. 1), Davis Thompson (No. 2) and Austin Eckroat (No. 3) are a respective +3000, +2000 and +3300 to win. Each excites me for the reasons provided, of course, but all also are more sensible options who happen to be worth multiples of the defending stud, er, champ.

Power Rankings wild card

Patrick Rodgers (+350 = Top 10) … If you ever wanted a test of how much you pour into trends, this is for you. He’s fresh off a T9 at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, his fifth top 10 of the year. He also finished T10 in his last appearance at Sea Island in 2022 when he was the 54-hole co-leader. Those are the basics of converging trends. Now add the layer that, among his top 10s in 2024, three occurred at sites where he recorded a top 10 in his previous appearance at the same site, and he made it three in a row at two of them. Heard enough? Keep reading, because there’s a but. In 10 seasons with a PGA TOUR card, he’s posted 27 top 10s but none of them have been in consecutive starts! This would be a career first. Crazy and true.

Other notables

Denny McCarthy (+275 = Top 10) … Like Rodgers, McCarthy also is now part of the subset of endorsements for a top 10 who wasn’t among the 15 golfers in my Power Rankings for the same tournament. It happens. As much as I’ve always advised playing it safe, it’s not a rule when firepower steps forward. That’s what this 31-year-old presents. I typically prefer him on harder tracks where his accuracy off the tee and world-class precision with the putter pay off exponentially, but he’s connected for a trio of top 10s at Sea Island in the last five editions. Larger greens benefit average iron players like he is, so I dig the reach as much as the value.

Lucas Glover (+175 = Top 20) … A Sunday 77 at Port Royal sent him plummeting from a T5 after three rounds to his resting place at T42. Chalk it up as one rough round and turn the page. Zoom out and you’ll find 18 red numbers among 20 scores across five starts in the FedExCup Fall. His first three resulted in a top 20 and he’s picked off three top 20s at Sea Island in nine starts. Bottom line, you don’t need to worry about the sharpshooter who’s only seven FedExCup points outside the bubble for the Aon Next 10.

Wesley Bryan (+375 = Top 20) … Not that it translates into a winning ticket every time, but I love when I think I’ve scrolled too far to find a guy only to realize that I haven’t gone far enough. The best thing that ever happened in the context of these odds was that he answered a third-round 61 at the Butterfield Bermuda with a closing 74 and still finished T17. It’s his third top 20 in five starts of the FedExCup Fall and he missed the same bubble by one stroke at the Black Desert Championship. Placed T44 here last year with a 67 and a trio of 68s, and his form was a but a twinkle of what it’s been of late.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Lucas Glover, Chris Kirk and Justin Lower (+185 = All to Make the Cut)
• Stewart Cink (+240 = Top 40)
• Zach Johnson (+160 = Top 40)
• Si Woo Kim (+175 = Top Asian)
• Matt McCarty (+170 = Miss the Cut)
• Maverick McNealy (+150 = Top 20)
• Brendon Todd (+140 = Top 40)

Returning to competition

Michael Thorbjornsen … Coincidentally, fellow PGA TOUR University valedictorian Ludvig Åberg also is back in action this week after extended time off. Thorbjornsen has been out since exiting the Black Desert Championship during its second round with an injured knee. Given that he’s drifted to 138th in the FedExCup, it’s been serious enough to need a month to heal but not so bad that he needed to sit out the rest of the season. Because he’s fully exempt in 2025, there’s no urgency to return, either. It’s worth noting that Thorbjornsen already had been locking into form following a stress fracture in his back and surgery on his left ankle while at Stanford.

Notable withdrawals

Matti Schmid … For the second consecutive season, he’s used the FedExCup Fall to secure his card. With a pair of top fives among five paydays in the series, he’s 93rd in points.

Rico Hoey … This is quite a flex for a rookie. His first five months were borderline terrible, but he flipped the script to go 13-for-13 since a T6 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. So, at 85th in the FedExCup, he sits out the season finale essentially because he can.

Mac Meissner … Here’s another rookie who’s starting his holiday break early; in fact, he hasn’t pegged it in earnest since the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP and he’s still 103rd in the FedExCup.

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