Benny and the Bets: How to bet bubble boys at The RSM Classic

There are tournaments within the tournament this week at The RSM Classic, and knowing about them all can bring insight for your betting picks for the season-ending trip to Sea Island.

While a PGA TOUR win remains the top priority for every player in the field, this is also the week where fully exempt status for 2025 is secured or lost, and where the Aon Next 10 is finalized.

Let’s start with a look at the all-important top 125, as this is effectively playing for your job. Players inside the top 125 of the FedExCup list get access to all Full-Field Events and THE PLAYERS Championship next season.

All 19 players from Nos. 122-140 in the current standings are in the field this week. Sam Ryder (122), Zac Blair (123), Joel Dahmen (124), Wesley Bryan (125), Henrik Norlander (126), Daniel Berger (127), Hayden Springer (128), Pierceson Coody (129), S.H. Kim (130), Dylan Wu (131), Kevin Tway (132), Matt Wallace (133), Carl Yuan (134), Garrick Higgo (135), Alejandro Tosti (136), Taylor Montgomery (137), Michael Thorbjornsen (138), Gary Woodland (139) and Kevin Streelman (140) are ready to chase a 2025 TOUR card.

Of those, Ryder, Dahmen, Norlander (twice), Berger, Tway, Montgomery (twice) and Streelman (twice) have previous top-25 finishes at The RSM Classic. Ryder, Dahmen, Bryan (four times), Norlander, Berger (twice), Springer, Coody, Wu, Tway, Wallace, Yuan, Higgo (twice), Tosti, Thorbjornsen, Woodland (twice) and Streelman (twice) have all had a top-25 finish inside their last five starts on TOUR.

Each needs varying efforts to secure a spot in the 125, but my focus immediately went to the first guy on the outside looking in: Norlander. With two top-fives previously at The RSM Classic, albeit some time ago, he has some good memories to dig down into while he’s playing for his job. He's 17th on TOUR in Strokes Gained: Approach, 11th in Greens In Regulation, fourth in Scrambling, 16th in Driving Accuracy and eighth in Bogey Avoidance.

As a +10000 longshot to win the tournament, Norlander is not expected to win. And I am not advocating he will. BUT a top 10 at +800 or a top 20 at +350 becomes a shot worth looking at. If Norlander finds himself T32 with a round to play, you can bet he will still be chasing birdies on Sunday. He will fight to the end. He’s even +125 for a top 40, some juice worth considering as he looks to squeeze into the top 125 of the season-long points.

But bumping Bryan might not be the path considering he’s had a very healthy four top 25s this fall. Norlander may need to hope for missteps from Blair or Dahmen. Dahmen, though, has shown glimpses of his good stuff this fall, and did top five at Sea Island not that long ago.

A top-20 finish for Bryan is +375. The odds makers are essentially suggesting he might fold under the pressure of securing status. Dahmen is +500 for the same result, with Blair +600! Trying to defend a spot on the points list can bring its own pressure, and the oddsmakers are expecting a rough week for these guys.

Another on my radar is Berger. He hasn’t made a habit of playing at Sea Island but at +300 for a top 20, I’m intrigued. Something inside of me still believes Berger can make it back closer to the form he showed as a multiple-time TOUR winner before injuries took hold.

The next chase for points to be wary of is the Aon Next 10. Nos. 51-60 in the final FedExCup Fall standings at the conclusion of The RSM Classic get into the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Genesis Invitational in February.

Mackenzie Hughes (51), Maverick McNealy (52), Patrick Rodgers (53), Harris English (54), Seamus Power (55), Ben Griffin (56) and Nico Echavarria (59) are all inside the zone and in the field looking to protect. The reality is only Echavarria needs to hold some concern.

Seven of the players between Nos. 61-70 are also in the field looking to crash in. Kevin Yu (61), Lucas Glover (62), Mark Hubbard (63), Jake Knapp (64), Taylor Moore (67), Justin Lower (68) and Andrew Novak (70).

Last year Ludvig Åberg, the +1000 tournament betting favorite, dominated here to grab his first victory and storm into the Aon Next 10. With a runner-up at Pebble Beach, Åberg would stay there all season and play all Signature Events, so you can see how big this last event can become.

Of those looking to move in, Lower and Novak are the form candidates from the last two events however both have struggled mightily at Sea Island. Taylor Moore at least has a somewhat recent RSM top 10 in 2021 to lean on but is that enough to chase the top-five finish he would need? He’s +900 if you think he can.

Rather than focus on players trying to get in this bubble, it is those comfortably inside it, who have a freedom attached to their psyche, where I focused my outright pick options.

Hughes has been a runner-up here twice in recent times, won here in 2016 and at +3500 I see value on the board. I’m also a believer of the post-Presidents Cup bump for International Team players.

Griffin at +3000 is another I’m interested in, having advocated for him the last two weeks running. He was eighth here a year ago and eighth last week so he’s trending in course and current form. He’s also a local Sea Island guy.

Another of the Sea Island crew is English at +3300. With top-15 results in his last three starts on TOUR he is trending nicely for a return "home."

I’ll leave you with one last reminder before I go: When it comes to live betting, keep all the bubbles in mind, especially later in the tournament. If a player needs a surge, you can bet he will go for it, and you just might find some hidden value. Check back for our nightly Draws and Fades column for help with those options.

Benny's betting card

• Outright: Mackenzie Hughes +3500, Ben Griffin +3000
• Top 10: Ben Griffin +275; Harris English +300
• Top 20: Henrik Norlander +350, Wesley Bryan +375
• Top 40: Henrik Norlander +125

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