Prop Farm: Wind has bettors wary ahead of Butterfield Bermuda Championship

The last few weeks of the FedExCup Fall has had an international flavor, going from Japan to Los Cabos, Mexico, and here we are this week in Bermuda as the race for TOUR cards gets close to its conclusion.

Personally, I love it. Seeing these properties in different parts of the world, including a new one recently in southern Utah, makes for some great golf viewing. Maybe it has some bettors, however, experiencing jetlag-like symptoms.

“Very light action so far,” veteran golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman says. “Not much to report on in the outright market,” Senior Sportsbook Manager at Mandalay Bay, Tristan Davis adds. And from long-time Las Vegas bookmaker, Nick Bogdanovich: “Not particularly (much action this week). It’s been absolutely dead for matchups and top 20s.”

While some of the golf bettors in Las Vegas may be napping, there is no rest and relaxation for the golfers in Southampton, Bermuda, where it appears the wind will be pretty fierce at Port Royal Golf Course. Wind, rain, thundershowers, clouds – all are in the forecast this week through Sunday. It is possible that we could experience stoppages of play. The wind is expected to gust as high as 40mph.

Port Royal is a very short, par 71 course but with these winds, it will play much longer. I relied heavily on ball-striking statistics and scrambling this week in my handicap. One had better be striping the ball flush this week or the wind will gobble up and spit out any shots that aren’t struck well. For those shots that do miss greens in regulation - and with this wind, there will be plenty – one had better be able to scramble and get up and down.

“We are seeing our highest ticket count in the outright market on Daniel Berger (6.1%), Lucas Glover (5.1%) and Carson Young (4.0%),” reports Drew O’Dell, senior data analyst at BetMGM. Berger and Glover absolutely qualify as quality ball strikers. Young was a player we fancied last week who nearly got home but ended up finishing runner-up.

O’Dell went on to point out a very different-looking list for those players responsible for the highest handle to win it this week. “Maverick McNealy accounts for 17.6% of the handle in the outright winner market,” said O’Dell. Wesley Bryan is second at 9.9% and Berger is third highest at 6.9%. Our biggest liabilities are Bryan, Berger and McNealy.”

A BetMGM Sportsbook in New Jersey, The Borgata, has some liability on Glover. “We have a little bit of liability on Glover at +2800,” said Director of Race and Sports, Thomas Gable. “We are in very good shape on the favorites (Seamus Power, Ben Griffin, Mackenzie Hughes and McNealy),” Gable continued. “No real respected money that I have seen come in on much.”

A similar tune I am hearing from Sherman in Las Vegas. “Griffin and Rico Hoey are popular with us this week – but it’s all public support, not from the sharps.”

Griffin was a player I was on last week in Mexico and he put himself into position heading into Sunday but tying for the second-highest round posted of the day, a 73, dropped him all the way back into 24th place. This is evidently not scaring the Bermuda bettors says Bogdanovich. “We’re getting action on Griffin and Jacob Bridgeman to win it all.”

I personally did not go back to the well with Griffin this week. Of the favorites, I landed on Hughes. After that, I went with Andrew Novak, Nick Taylor, Greyson Sigg and Nate Lashley. These guys all fit my theme in one way or another of ball striking, scrambling, and having past success on these narrower, shorter, coastal golf courses – like Sea Island Golf Club (The RSM Classic), Waialae Country Club (Sony Open in Hawaii), Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am), Colonial Country Club (Charles Schwab Challenge), Grand Reserve Golf Club (Puerto Rico Open) and Corales Golf Course (Corales Puntacana Championship).

While not seeing too much activity in the outright market, Davis at Mandalay Bay has seen some respected money come in on head-to-head matchups. “A few sharp moves for matchups,” said Davis. “Doug Ghim from -130 into -160 to beat Mackenzie Hughes, Ryo Hisatsune from +100 to -125 to beat David Lipsky, and Nick Taylor -130 into -145 to beat Brendon Todd.”

One proposition bet this week that I believe is particularly telling. Camilo Villegas won the Butterfield Bermuda Championship last year with a winning score of 24-under. Here in Las Vegas, Sherman has set the winning score Under/Over number this week at 13.5 under par. That is nearly half of what Villegas got to in 2023. Yeah, looks like the wind is going to blow this year in Bermuda. Make sure you take that into account when you are farming for a few good bets this week at Port Royal.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.