Golfbet Insider: Watch for golfers with nothing to lose at Butterfield Bermuda Championship

Every winning bet is plus value even if the odds are not. It’s an immutable, universal truth.

That reminder is timely in weeks like this for which there is greater confidence in lower finishing positions than the markets for outrights, top fives and top 10s. Even if you build your card similarly over time, it can be handy to have the support to remain committed to that process at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

The impactful narratives present as a 1 and 1a, but we’ll start with the weather.

There is no escaping the wind that promises to challenge during Thursday’s opening round. Because just one unfortunate score can crush hopes, the additional variable in the equation that we cannot control must be respected.

Friday projects to be the easiest day to go low on Port Royal Golf Course, a par 71, but it’s possible that the scoring averages by draw could encroach on what happened at the Shriners Children's Open four weeks ago.

As anticipated, the early-late draw got the better of it at TPC Summerlin. Across the first 36 holes, it averaged 3.72 fewer strokes and 41 of the 66 golfers (or 62%) who made the cut emerged from it. Naturally – both literally and figuratively – timing is everything, but even if the splits at Port Royal aren’t skewed, individual scores definitely will be. Avoiding markets to win or contend in this construct is the same advice extended to one-and-doners in the heart of the season when there is time to play conservatively. Take your medicine.

But it won’t end there. The weekend also could offer a few more lashes courtesy of the invisible force, and that says nothing of the headwind of the pressure to perform in the penultimate stop of the season. The final leaderboard just might be the most random combination of entrants you could generate.

With all of that in mind – here comes the 1a – consider top-20 and top-40 markets more than usual or even entirely. Fill your card by multiplying an agreeable outlay of units with diluted odds.

There are 36 golfers with odds shorter than +100 for a top-40 finish at BetMGM. Another four are at +100. My work focuses only on plus values, so it’s why you won’t find endorsements in Sleepers or in the sections below for Doug Ghim at (-120) for a top 20 and Chad Ramey at +100 for a top 40, but I love both for your considerations.

While it might not play out to be the most prosperous week, remaining fluid is a veteran move. When the going gets tough, it also can be more fun to finish in the black by a little than to latch onto the board favorite to prevail; that is, of course, if you don’t convert on both. There’s also a lot to learn from modifying your behavior and filing away the intelligence yielded by your patience.

Power Rankings wild card

Andrew Novak (+130 = Top 20) … He’s been one of the most reliable in tropical climes exposed to the wind, which is sensible given his proficiency on approach. For a while, it seemed limited to paspalum but he’s performed comparably on other strains, including on Bermudagrass in, well, Bermuda. In the last two editions, he finished a respective T17 and T45 and his scoring average in his last nine rounds at Port Royal is 68.11. Rested since a T16 (on bentgrass) at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP.

Other notables

Kevin Streelman (+280 = Top 20) … Beware the golfer with nothing to lose. So goes the 46-year-old who is 139th in the FedExCup. Because he recently eclipsed 300 career cuts made, he’s activated an exemption that he can burn for fully exempt status in a future season, but it’s the inspiring play that warrants this reach. Rose to a T3 at the Black Desert Championship and held on for a T24 at the World Wide Technology Championship last week where he opened with a 67 in windy conditions to co-lead the tournament. Still doing his thing from tee to green and ranks 13th in proximity.

Greyson Sigg (+160 = Top 20) … By going 3-for-4 in the FedExCup Fall with a T4, a T11 and a T23, he’s vaulted to 114th in points. With his card secure, he can get after it following a three-week break and at a site where he’s hung up a T22 (2021) and a T11 (2022). Possesses the potent combination of sitting 14th in greens hit and 11th in scrambling. When confidence is soaring, as it is now, he’s able to stay out of his own way and avoid the pitfalls that have led to extended stretches of poor form that defies his skill set.

Brandon Wu (+125 = Top 40) … He’s too talented to be plus value for this finish in this field, but we might as well exploit it. Since 2021, he’s placed T34, T35 and T30 at Port Royal with a scoring average of 68.75. He also finished T30 in Mexico last week for his second top 40 of the FedExCup Fall.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Greyson Sigg, Jhonattan Vegas and Carson Young (+115 = All to Make the Cut)
• Kelly Kraft (+150 = Top 40)
• K.H. Lee (+125 = Top Korean)
• Ryan Moore (+110 = Top 40)
• Henrik Norlander (+200 = Top 20)
• Sean O’Hair (+300 = Top 40)

Returning to competition

Trace Crowe … Cited personal reasons for exiting the World Wide Technology Championship after three rounds. He had drifted into a share of last place at the time of his decision. The rookie has shown flashes in recent months but he’s still without a top 40 in the FedExCup Fall despite surviving the last four cuts.

Notable withdrawals

Joe Highsmith … With a solo fifth in Mexico last week, he rose from 126th to 112th in the FedExCup. It was the best of a litany of strong appearances in the FedExCup Fall, so this is a well-deserved rest.

Taylor Montgomery … This is his third early withdrawal to go with a trio of mid-tournament WDs. That he’s grinding through the rigors of trying to compete at the highest level in the wake of recovering from torn muscles in both shoulders is commendable. With three top 15s on the board early in the season, no doubt he’s been motivated to retain leverage in the FedExCup where he’s 133rd, but it has been a struggle for eight months.

For resources to overcome a gambling problem, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER today.