Benny and the Bets: Pay close attention to weather, tee times to gain edge in Bermuda

A little bit of research will go a long way this week at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

While we don’t have full ShotLink data to explore in these non-ShotLink events there is a place to look for an edge.

First, put on your amateur meteorologist hat and keep abreast of the weather situation at Port Royal Golf Course.

It gets windy out there and keeping an eye on the timing and strength of those gusts will be a big factor.

Have a look at this extended forecast provided by PGA TOUR meteorologist Kyle Koval.

“Strong low-pressure northeast of Bermuda will bring windy conditions to the island Wednesday/Thursday. The strongest winds are expected on Wednesday. Another low-pressure system will track near the area Friday into Saturday, however exact track and intensity remain uncertain. Regardless, a period of rain/thunderstorms will be possible, especially Friday night. Winds will increase behind this system with gusts of 30-40 mph possible Saturday and continuing into Sunday. Some showery activity could remain possible on Sunday as well.”

In other words… she’s gonna blow!

Finding players who have shown an ability to at least handle the wind is a place to start. But don’t forget this other little nugget about Port Royal.

The front nine is significantly easier than the back.

As a par 71, the golf course houses two of its par 5s on the front side of the course and it also sports the lone short par 3 (148 yards) with the other par 3s all well over 200 yards. The two on the back nine were the two hardest holes in the tournament a year ago.

While the front side average was -1.451 the back nine was just -0.391 a year ago. More than a shot different. Four of the easiest five holes on the course were on the front side while five of the hardest seven holes were on the back. This discrepancy is consistent across all previous visits. The front nine is easier.

Why does that factor into betting decisions you may ask. Well, quite simply, a player starting early on Thursday on the first hole rather than the 10th hole is given a soft introduction and the chance to go low early and build up confidence and rhythm before hitting the harder side of the course.

On the other side of the coin, a player starting on the 10th hole is in early survival mode and if mistakes happen, they can quickly look up and see themselves four shots behind after four holes. This then causes the panic state of pressing and could make things unravel faster.

Stretch it to the afternoon wave where, say the leaders have already posted up something in the 8-under mark (or 10-under like last year) and those starting on 10 are already thinking they need to go low.

Does this mean you disregard players starting on the 10th hole in Round 1? No, not at all. It means you hold on to them and decide if you’re still in after their first nine holes.

Look at the winner a year ago. Camilo Villegas opened on the 10th in one of the earliest groups in the first round and was just 1-under at the turn before kicking up on the front for a relatively passive 4-under 67. He went from his opening odds of +12000 to +30000 after the opening nine holes. At the day's end, he was +22000.

Now I’m not saying I would have backed Villegas at that point, but astute pundits would have known his next round would start on the first hole so IF there was a time he might make a move, it would probably start there. Indeed Villegas opened round two birdie-birdie and leveraged the confidence into an 8-under 63. Two days later he won by two.

So now to my picks and whether they are a buy now, or potentially buy later.

Outrights

Bet now:

• Ryan Moore +10000: A five-time winner on TOUR and former amateur standout hasn’t been at his best for a while… but neither was Villegas ahead of last fall. Moore was T5 here last time out and knows the wind having played in Las Vegas most of his life. His driving accuracy will be key and he starts on the first tee, in the first group on Thursday getting a pure course.

Bet just prior to their afternoon tee time:

• Seamus Power +1400: The tournament favorites odds should drift a little if the morning wave puts up low numbers giving better value on the former winner who also has a further T12 to his name in Bermuda. Four top-13 finishes in his last five starts on TOUR to go with it.
• Matti Schmid +2800: Like Power, you might get a little more juice before his afternoon tee time. Three top 16s in his last four starts and was third in Bermuda a year ago.

Potentially bet after opening nine holes:

• Ben Griffin +1800: Top 25s in his last two starts this Fall and a previous T3 in Bermuda have me feeling like he is trending in the right direction. He’s got my attention but I’d be waiting to see if he gets through the tougher nine holes to open his week first.

Place markets

For the place markets I’ve narrowed down to four potential targets, ALL of which I am hoping for some live juice after their opening nine holes. So keep in mind the odds here will hopefully be a little better at that point in their rounds.

• Sam Stevens (+225 Top 10; +105 Top 20): Five top 40s in a row including a T6 last start.
• Vince Whaley (+400 Top 10; +200 Top 20): Two T16s in his last four starts and top 10s in his last two Bermuda starts.
• Justin Lower (+225 Top 10; +105 Top 20): T2 last start, much like Villegas did last year.
• Patrick Rodgers (+225 Top 10; +110 Top 20): Two top 25s in his last three starts and a T3 and fourth place in his last two Bermuda starts.

Benny's betting card

• Outright: Ben Griffin, Matti Schmid
• Top 10: Sam Stevens, Ryan Moore
• Top 20: Patrick Rodgers, Vince Whaley

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