Prop Farm: Cameron out, but Carson Young worth wager in Mexico

The PGA TOUR is back after a one-week break and the international flavor rolls on, as we shift from Japan to Mexico – and next week, we’re in Bermuda - as three events remain in the FedExCup Fall.

For the second straight season, the World Wide Technology Championship will be held at El Cardonal at Diamante, a Tiger Woods-designed golf course in Los Cabos, Mexico. Erik van Rooyen is your defending champion, checking in with a winning score of 27-under last year. Las Vegas oddsmaker Jeff Sherman expects more low scores in Mexico, setting this week’s winning score prop at Over/Under 262.5 (25.5 under).

Wind is the primary defense at this coastal resort course. It did not blow much last year and doesn’t appear to be too threatening this week. The Thursday forecast is calling for breezes in the 10-20 mph range, with it decreasing every day thereafter.

Drew O’Dell, senior data analyst at BetMGM, spelled out for me what he is seeing so far heading into the tournament. “For highest ticket count percentage, handle percentage, and our biggest liability, Cameron Young leads the way," O'Dell noted on Wednesday.

It was not long after this that Young withdrew from the tournament. Like Thomas Gable, Race and Sports Book Director at The Borgata, said, “A lot of refunds coming.”

I told Gable that if I was on his side of the counter, I’d rather have had Young in the tournament, as I didn’t expect much out of him this week. In fact, I played the other “C. Young” in the field, that being Carson Young, to win it outright this week. Carson Young was ninth here last year and just finished 11th at the Black Desert Championship a few weeks ago in Utah – another course with huge greens and massively wide fairways. He has also finished eighth and 15th at Vidanta Vallarta, the host course for the Mexico Open. Again, wide fairways, big greens, and Paspalum turf wall to wall like we have here at El Cardonal.

“Taylor Moore, Matti Schmid and Joe Highsmith got sharp action to win it all,” said long-time Las Vegas bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “Overall, the action is not bad ... They’re betting on Harris English and on Keith Mitchell in head-to-head matchups, and Mitchell ‘YES’ to finish top-20 got some really good action.”

Schmid is making noise at BetMGM as well, as O’Dell points out: “He was our third-highest in ticket count percentage behind English and (Cameron) Young. He’s second in handle at 15% and is our second-largest liability.”

Tristan Davis, senior manager at Mandalay Bay, is not seeing as much interest in the outright market but has seen some activity on a couple of matchups. “English to beat Jhonattan Vegas went from -110 to -125, and Joel Dahmen from -125 to -145 to beat Seung-Yul Noh.”

It's a similar setup for Gable in New Jersey as far as action on the head-to-heads. “We have seen respected money come in on Mitchell over Matt Kuchar and also on English over Vegas,” Gable said. “Also Charley Hoffman (+110) over Patton Kizzire and on Nate Lashley (+110) over Alex Smalley are both now down to even money (+100).”

Personally, I did not play any matchups this week but I am on one of the guys that is evidently getting some love in the market, and that is English. Both Black Desert Resort and TPC Summerlin were correlated courses for me this week with their wide fairways and large greens. English has finished top 10 at both of these courses in his last two starts. He has also won at Kapalua and Mayakoba, and has finished fifth at Corales Puntacana. Again, wide fairways, big greens and/or Paspalum turf are common denominators. Ben Griffin and Sam Stevens were the two additional plays I made in the outright market.

One thing is for certain, Cameron Young will not make it eight times finishing runner-up in a PGA TOUR event but this week’s outright favorite, Max Greyserman, could make it four times in his last six starts. Is there a price on that – Greyserman to finish runner-up? For the entertainment purposes of this column only, Sherman said he would price Greyserman at +900 to finish top two, either a win or a runner-up.