Bolton: Wager on Keith Mitchell's firepower at World Wide Technology Championship

It cannot be overstated how great the FedExCup Fall is for betting. Sure, the world’s top-ranked talent, Scottie Scheffler, was literally gold in outpacing outright markets throughout 2024, but like a salesperson hitting a quota in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year, this is the time of the season when a deficit can be erased in any given week.

Three of the five winners in the series thus far were long shots. Patton Kizzire was +17500 to win the Procore Championship, Kevin Yu was +10000 en route to his breakthrough victory at the Sanderson Farms Championship and Nico Echavarria was a whopping +20000 when he joined the elite smattering of winners of the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP. By comparison, Matt McCarty (+5500, Black Desert Championship) and J.T. Poston (+4000, Shriners Children’s Open) seem chintzy, but in no universe were they interpreted as among the favorites based on their pre-tournament odds to win.

This week’s World Wide Technology Championship presents another opportunity to swing for the fence, so batter up!

Consider that none of the two with the shortest odds to win have won on the PGA TOUR – Max Greyserman (+1400) and Doug Ghim (+2200) – and three of the six sharing the next-shortest odds of +2500 also are non-winners – Ben Griffin, Beau Hossler and Matti Schmid. All but Ghim are in my Power Rankings, but my No. 1 is Harris English, who is +2800. Each is more attractive as insurance in other markets.

The open layout of El Cardonal at Diamante also feeds into the initiative to dive deeper on the board. Just like at Black Desert Resort, this field’s sky-high percentages of fairways hit and greens in regulation will make you wonder if the 120 entrants are knocking it around a polo field. They are horses as well, but these guys will shoot and score all by themselves. Pick two, three or four of them to win while adhering to your own customary load of units overall.

Power Rankings wild card

Keith Mitchell (+300 = Top 10) … It was only a month ago when he was among four to share the lowest odds to win the Sanderson Farms, and he placed T3. At Black Desert the following week, he was the tournament favorite and missed the cut. He also missed the cut at the Shriners Children's Open the week after that. So, while he’s fallen out of favor to slot T14 among those with the shortest odds to win this week in Mexico at +3300, he’s also not far removed from the form that warranted recent house protection. This tight combination over time is for us as much as the shootout is for him. His firepower all season is measured in the fact that he’s 17th on the PGA TOUR in hitting greens in regulation and 21st in converting those chances into par breakers. And while he finished just T38 while riding a roller coaster at El Cardonal at Diamante last year, it ended with the thrill of a bogey-free, 8-under 64.

Other notables

Patton Kizzire (+240 = Top 20) … The winner of the Procore Championship that launched the FedExCup Fall has remained busy because there’s still work to do. He secured spots in the Masters and the PGA Championship, and he’s exempt into the first Signature Event of 2025 – The Sentry – but he’s not yet exempt into any of the others. His back was against the wall all season as he forged ahead on conditional status, yet he delivered six top 20s to reach 74th in the FedExCup. In other words, continue to bet on and not against him. It doesn’t hurt that his best result of the last nine months of a difficult 2023 occurred at none other than El Cardonal where he finished T15.

Doug Ghim (+100 = Top 20) … Gotta hand it to him. As noted at the top, he’s third-shortest to win at +2200. That remarkable respect can be attributed to investor confidence and a recent runner-up finish at TPC Summerlin. However, I was hesitant to tout him for even a top 20 simply because the solo second is his only top 20 in the last seven-and-a-half months. It’s also just his fourth top 10 in 140 PGA TOUR starts as a professional. So, he deserves the attention here but the advice is to gamble with more attractive kickbacks in the same market.

Tap-ins

NOTE: Not everything needs a setup. For a variety of reasons, these lines are too enticing to ignore.

• PARLAY: Rico Hoey, Tom Hoge and Patrick Rodgers (+120 = All to Make the Cut)
• Zach Bauchou (+140 = Top 40)
• Jacob Bridgeman (+200 = Top 20)
• Trey Mullinax (+170 = Top 40)
• Sam Ryder (+150 = Top 40)
• Vince Whaley (+275 = Top 20)
• Tom Whitney (+230 = Top 40)
• Carl Yuan (+300 = Top 40)

Returning to competition

Maverick McNealy … After closing out a T16 at the Shriners Children’s Open with a 64, he flew to Japan, opened with 71 at the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, and then withdrew due to illness. That it’s not an injury helps explain why his odds of +130 for a top 20 aren’t longer, but the inconsistency amid the occasional glimmers all season is reason enough to redistribute whatever portion of a unit you’re considering.

Notable withdrawals

Greyson Sigg … He bowed out not long after the field was released on Friday afternoon for his first early withdrawal of the season. He’s 110th in the FedExCup.

J.B. Holmes … In his last start, he called it quits before completing his ninth hole of the Black Desert Championship due to a sore back. Just 1-for-11 on the season with five starts remaining on his Major Medical Extension.

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