Benny and the Bets: Look to short game for separation in Mexico

Sometimes you have to stand up and admit you were wrong. A year ago, when trying to preview the World Wide Technology Championship at a new course, my speculation that bombers might thrive turned out to be garbage. So now, despite just one year of limited data to work with, I’ve done a 180. This time, look for short-game skills around El Cardonal at Diamante in Los Cabos, Mexico.

The reality is this: El Cardonal at Diamante is a Tiger Woods design for resort players, and as such the fairways are ultra-wide and forgiving. Over 90% of drives found the short grass a year ago. Basically, everyone hits the fairways. So it stood to reason that those who hit it longer and came into the greens with shorter clubs, might have the advantage.

But if we look at the top eight finishes from 2023, we get a variety of player types – but the bomber was not really among them. Winner Erik van Rooyen is an above-average putter over his career. So too, are prior contenders Matt Kuchar, Justin Suh, Chesson Hadley and two players not returning this year in Andrew Putnam and Mackenzie Hughes.

Camilo Villegas, runner-up last year, has strength in his Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green profile. So do Kuchar, Putnam and Hughes. The greens are large, as the field hit 81% of them in regulation last year. But you can’t afford to mess up on the few times you do miss. Suh only missed five greens but got up and down just twice. If he scrambled perfectly, he’d have made a playoff. Putting takes precedence, but not making mistakes in a shootout is also important.

Countering my decision to make an about-face is the fact it was the first time we visited El Cardonal at Diamante, and as such players had limited knowledge of the greens and the surroundings of the putting surfaces. Perhaps with a little more experience, the advantage to those naturally better around and on the greens diminishes this year. But I’m still going to run with the short game guys.

With a bunch of runner-up finishes recently, I can see why Max Greyserman is the betting favorite at +1400, especially given he’s second on TOUR in SG: Putting. But I’m not touching short odds on him when I see he’s 125th in SG: Around-the-Green. He’s a wait-and-see option for me – a live betting target.

Instead, I am looking at the combination of SG: Putting and SG: Around-the-Green rankings and matching season performers in both together with the odds on the board. Then we can look at course history and current form to decide which market, if any, these players represent value.

To make my list, you needed to be inside the top 70 on TOUR of both metrics. But some of those still don’t warrant a bet because of recent form, course form or a combination of both.

Outright consideration

Matt Kuchar +2800: (32nd SG: Putting; 25th SG: Around-the-Green) –I’ll be hitching my wagon to the veteran this year who had a huge lead a year ago before throwing it away with a quad on Saturday. He has three top 15s in his last five starts and was T2 here last year.

Beau Hossler +2500: (14th SG: Putting; eighth SG: Around-the-Green) –I’d love to have the confidence to make him my top choice, but I still have doubts he can close the deal. Three recent top 25s including a heart-breaking playoff loss and a T15 here a year ago.

Harris English +2800: (10th SG: Putting; 70th SG: Around-the-Green) – He didn’t play here a year ago but that shouldn’t phase this veteran. A T9 and T6 from his last two starts and a winner of this event at a different course.

Ben Griffin +2500: (51st SG: Putting; 24th SG: Around-the-Green) – Sitting right where he wants to be having rounded into some form with four of his last five cuts made and a T11 amongst his results. T23 here a year ago.

Jacob Bridgeman +5000: (sixth SG: Putting; 53rd SG: Around-the-Green) – The longshot of the group, so consider spreading across the place markets. Two recent top 12s having made four of his last five cuts. Didn’t play last year but a true sleeper here.

Top 10 material

Harry Hall +250 For Top 10: (40th SG: Putting; fifth SG: Around-the-Green) – If it wasn’t for the missed cut here a year ago, he’d have snuck into the outright column above. A T13 and T9 recently plus a win earlier this season.

Top 20 material

Maverick McNealy +130 For Top 20: (36th SG: Putting; 10th SG: Around-the-Green) – We keep waiting for McNealy to really hit his stride and take a TOUR win. Could this be it? I like him in the top-20 market, where he’s been twice in his last four starts. He did miss the cut here last year, though.

Vince Whaley +275 For Top 20: (14th SG: Putting; 23rd SG: Around-the-Green) – His rankings as a combo are close to the best and he has two T16s in his last three starts. T59 last year.

Top 40 only

The following players have the necessary rankings, but perhaps not the form warranted for a bet. You have been warned!

Taylor Montgomery +185 For Top 40: (First SG: Putting; 42nd SG: Around-the-Green) –Leads the TOUR in putting but coming off three missed cuts. Was T31 last year so might be worth a stab.

Sam Stevens -200 For Top 40: (31st SG: Putting; 64th SG: Around-the-Green) – Has four straight top 40s, so is on trend. Did not play here last year.

Aaron Baddeley +225 For Top 40: (19th SG: Putting; sixth SG: Around-the-Green) – Great numbers in the metrics but current form is awful with three straight missed cuts. Didn’t play last year.

S.H. Kim +140 For Top 40: (17th SG: Putting; 44th SG: Around-the-Green) – No better than T46 in his last five starts, Didn’t play last year.

Martin Laird +130 For Top 40: (55th SG: Putting; 16th SG: Around-the-Green) – T31 last year might give hope, but missed three of last five cuts.

K.H. Lee -125 For Top 40: (67th SG: Putting; 45th SG: Around-the-Green) –A recent T5 and T54 last year.

Roger Sloan +140 For Top 40: (58th SG: Putting; 56th SG: Around-the-Green) – A T12 five starts ago; did not play last year.

Ben Taylor +300 For Top 40: (70th SG: Putting; 62nd SG: Around-the-Green) – Missed three of last four cuts, missed cut here last year. No thanks.

Kevin Tway +105 For Top 40: (22nd SG: Putting; 39th SG: Around-the-Green) –One recent T13 and a T54 here last year.

BENNY’S BETTING CARD

• Outright: Matt Kuchar +2800
• Top 10: Harris English +275
• Top 20: Vince Whaley +275
• Top 40: Sam Stevens -200

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