Why Scottie Scheffler doesn’t make list for (way too early) bets for 2025 majors

Scottie Scheffler is coming off a brilliant season, featuring a Masters win and claiming the FedExCup. But all of that success doesn’t necessarily mean that he made his way onto my shortlist for players to win the four major championships in 2025.

The world No. 1 won THE PLAYERS Championship for the second time in addition to his Masters triumph, captured the season-long prize at the TOUR Championship and added another four TOUR wins while also collecting the Olympic gold medal in 2024. But if you’re looking for early bets on the 2025 majors, the Texan shouldn’t be on your radar – not yet, anyway.

Unlike last year, I’m not making the mistake of saying he won’t win a major. But I am saying you shouldn’t bet on him at this point. The reason is simple: His odds are way too short to entertain from this far out with the unknowns of time. Injuries, form dips, life experiences … these can all pop up between now and the five months before the new major season kicks off at Augusta National.

The 2025 majors are set to be held as follows:

• The Masters: Augusta National Golf Club, Augusta, Georgia, April 10-13
• PGA Championship: Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, North Carolina, May 15-18
• U.S. Open: Oakmont Country Club, Oakmont, Pennsylvania, June 12-15
• The Open Championship: Royal Portrush, Portrush, Northern Ireland, July 17-20

Unsurprisingly, Scheffler is the betting favorite at BetMGM Sportsbook in all four of them. He sits +500 for the Masters, +450 for the PGA Championship, +500 for the U.S. Open and +600 for The Open Championship.

I take great interest in the fact it is the PGA where he is priced as the heaviest favorite, given I’d be more inclined to look at him at Augusta National and Oakmont. Scheffler has yet to play a TOUR event at Quail Hollow Club, giving up experience to the field. He did play there in the 2022 Presidents Cup but went 0-3-1.

At Augusta this year, Scheffler ultimately dominated as the +400 favorite, so the argument for taking +500 now is available. But I’d still recommend seeing where the early months of the season shake out. If he pops off with wins at Phoenix and/or at Bay Hill or TPC Sawgrass, all places he won this year, then we might rue letting the +500 go. But if he is just a fraction of his 2024 heroics, we might see those numbers drift a little and create more value.

Oakmont is traditionally a very tough U.S. Open venue and could play right into Scheffler’s strengths. But again, at +500 with over seven months still to navigate, it just doesn’t make sense. This is the number I’d monitor most. If you see it drift, start to think about buying in. It’s a likely pipe dream, barring a significant slump, but I’d love to see double digits and then pounce. That just leaves The Open at Royal Portrush. It’s the one major where Scheffler hasn’t appeared to be the dominant force amongst his peers. Links golf and its nuances aren’t beyond him, they just bring him back to the field. And as always, the draw/weather, etc. can be such a factor in this tournament, making any early bet a risk.

So if not Scheffler, then who? Who should we look at as potential (way too early) bets in the four majors? I’m looking for some players who I think might see their odds come down when the tournament itself gets closer, so now is the time to pounce.

The Masters: Collin Morikawa +2200

A final-round 74 saw Morikawa drop from one shot off the 54-hole lead at Augusta to a seven-shot loss to Scheffler this year. But those lessons will come in very handy in 2025. He now has three top 10s in the Masters to his name and the experience of winning both a PGA Championship and Open Championship. At more than four times the odds of Scheffler, he becomes an early value play, particularly if he finds a way to win on TOUR early in 2025. He will finish this season inside the top 10 of Strokes Gained: Total, and inside the top five of Driving Accuracy and Scoring Average. The only red flag is a significant dropoff in Greens in Regulation this season, but I’ll take the chance he returns his approach game to its former glories in 2025.

Longshot option: Sahith Theegala (+5000): I am still caught up in his debut performance at Augusta when he was ninth. Talent to burn that fits the Augusta profile.

PGA Championship: Justin Thomas +2800

Despite the troubles trying to close out the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP recently, I am prepared to say 2025 will be the year Thomas becomes a regular contender – and indeed winner – on the PGA TOUR again. The strides back from a tough 2023 were evident in 2024, and with no disrespect to impressive youngster Nico Echavarria, it felt like a win in Japan for Thomas would make sense in the journey. His drought-breaking victory will have to come elsewhere, and I think it might come before May’s trip to Quail Hollow, which would send these odds down. Thomas won the PGA Championship in 2017, the last time it was held at this venue, and could easily attack it to win again provided he can find at least some incremental improvement in his putting numbers.

Longshot option: Jason Day (+6600): A former winner at Quail Hollow (and former PGA champion) who might not have the ability to be consistently great, but does have the ability to bring the magic for four days.

U.S. Open: Xander Schauffele +1100

Weather permitting, we are set for an old-school grind of a U.S. Open – and with that comes the need to find a player with grit as well as skills. The last six U.S. Opens have been won at 6-under or better, but all nine U.S. Opens at Oakmont finished at 5-under or worse. So it’s hard to go past the man in Schauffele, who won two of the four majors last year, and neither was the U.S. Open, which was arguably the most likely for him to win! Just look at his results since his T5 debut in 2017: T5-T6-T3-5-T7-T14-T10-T7. He has never finished outside the top 15 and also put up a 62 on his scorecard at Los Angeles Country Club in 2023. I see it as not a matter of if, but when Schauffele wins this championship.

Longshot option: Russell Henley (+6600): Has been in the mix in three of the last four U.S. Opens, all top-15 finishes. Has the formula to succeed in this event.

The Open Championship: Ludvig Åberg +1400

As mentioned earlier, The Open is the most dangerous major to bet too early both in terms of time until it starts and the variables that occur in the week of the championship. Whether it will be hard and fast or wet and wild at Royal Portrush is completely unknown at this point, so please take this Åberg selection with caution. The reality is that trends suggest at least one new major winner will be crowned in 2025. Only four times since 1946 has a major season gone by without at least one new winner. Schauffele took the mantle last year, and in my mind, Åberg has to be on your radar to be the man to come off the major-less list sooner rather than later. He contended at the Masters and U.S. Open despite suffering through a knee injury, and if fully fit I think the European star can win Europe’s major. This is not a bet you "need" to make now; in fact, this tournament is your best one to take a longshot at this stage. But I’ll still be keeping an eye on his odds over the next eight months.

Longshot option: Aaron Rai (+8000): The Englishman is super accurate off the tee and is now a TOUR winner, a combination to spy at these long odds.

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