Prop Farm: Will Zalatoris set to sneak up on many in Japan

What a time to be a sports bettor. The NBA and the NHL have kicked off their seasons. College basketball and the World Series are right around the corner – and on a Wednesday night in the second half of October, we have PGA TOUR golf in prime time. It’s a beautiful thing!

That’s right, Wednesday night – not Thursday morning. The FedExCup Fall continues with the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP in Chiba, Japan, and it is the best field we have seen so far this fall. Collin Morikawa is here to defend his 2023 title, and 2021 winner Hideki Matsuyama is also a part of the 78-player field. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Sahith Theegala, Will Zalatoris and Max Homa also headline what is a no-cut tournament, taking place at ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club.

But what looks like a home run for us hardcore golf fans may not be the case elsewhere.

“It’s been pretty quiet for such a good field,” said industry stalwart, bookmaker Nick Bogdanovich. “The time difference is a killer.”

Sportsbooks are used to having another 12-15 hours available for action to come in pre-tournament, but not this week with things going down in the Land of the Rising Sun.

“Thomas and Matsuyama are getting a lot of action to win it all,” Bogdanovich continued. “Sungjae Im got action as well. Gary Woodland and Ryo Hisatsune are taking action as long bombs.”

I am personally on Hisatsune as a longshot to win it all this week, too. He’s played here in each of the last three editions of this championship with finishes over the past three editions of 52nd, 12th and T6 last year. The golf course at Narashino Country Club features Zoysiagrass fairways and Bentgrass greens. We have seen that combination a couple of times recently – at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch and also at Valhalla, where Schauffele won the PGA Championship back in May. Hisatsune finished 13th at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson and 18th at Valhalla. The Zoysiagrass-Bentgrass combination may be an edge in Hisatsune’s favor.

Speaking of Schauffele, it is interesting to see a few different directions in how bettors are playing the two-time major winner this week.

“They’re betting Schauffele on the ‘NO’ for a top 10 finish,” said Bogdanovich.

But elsewhere in Las Vegas, veteran golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman noted: “The most popular head-to-head matchup has been Schauffele over Morikawa.”

Bogdanovich added: “They’re betting Theegala over Schauffele head-to-head.”

It's worth mentioning that when I asked Sherman if any of this had come from respected money, he said: “Nothing sharp this week so far.”

Over on the East Coast, our friend Thomas Gable, director of race and sports at The Borgata in Atlantic City, is seeing all the big names take action: “In the outright winner market, all of the favorites are attracting money, Schauffele at +500, Morikawa at +700 and Matsuyama at +900,” said Gable.

“We are also seeing some money come in on Will Zalatoris at +3500, who we haven’t seen in a while," Gable continued. "Zalatoris is an underdog (+125) in his head-to-head tournament matchup with Maverick McNealy (-145) but is taking some action here as well… the Zalatoris money is not recreational. The rest of it is.”

Personally, I didn’t mind hearing some sharp money is coming for Zalatoris because I, too, am on him this week. I love how he finished his summer, plus the fact that he’s taken two months off since then to continue to recuperate that back of his. Zalatoris’ only PGA TOUR victory came at TPC Southwind, a course that has smaller-than-average greens and Zoysiagrass fairways, like Narashino Country Club. Zalatoris finished 12ththere back in August, and former ZOZO winner Matsuyama won it all that week in Memphis.

Skip ahead to the next week at Castle Pines Golf Club in Colorado, where they played the BMW Championship. Zalatoris finished 13th. Who was your winner that week? Keegan Bradley, another former ZOZO champion.

When I look at who has won at Narashino Country Club – Tiger Woods (2019), Matsuyama, Bradley and Morikawa – I think of Total Driving and Ball-Striking as the two stats that stand out. When I add that these are smaller than average greens, I think Scrambling as well. At both the FedEx St. Jude Championship and BMW Championship, Zalatoris was excellent with this ball-striking, putting and scrambling. Maybe things are aligning for the young star to get TOUR victory No. 2 this week in Japan. We’ll see.

One more note, and this is regarding the First Round Leader market: We go back to Im, who Bogdanovich mentioned as someone taking action to win the whole tournament. Gable from his BetMGM shop at The Borgata said, “Sungjae Im at +2200 for First Round Leader is a liability for us.”

Make up your mind and get your bets in soon. Wednesday night in prime time is almost here.