Benny and the Bets: Chalk wins, but form still travels in Japan

When it comes to the ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP, trends suggest you should respect the chalk. But while big names usually win, form from the FedExCup Fall travels – and it opens the door to hitting value in the place markets.

In the four previous editions that were played in Japan at ACCORDIA GOLF Narashino Country Club, we’ve seen Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley and Collin Morikawa win – all previous major winners. Incredibly, at +4000, Woods was the highest odds of all of them.

It’s a chalk week. Matsuyama won at +1000. Bradley won at +2800 in 2022, and last year Morikawa was +1000 to open the week.

It bodes well for Xander Schauffele (+450), Morikawa (+700), Matsuyama (+800), Sungjae Im (+1400), Sahith Theegala (+1800) and Justin Thomas (+2000), who occupy the top spots on the BetMGM Sportsbook boards this week. Of course, Im and Theegala are not yet major winners, but they are big names.

And big names win here. So let’s get the lowdown on the six guys who can win out of the gate before I show you where else you can find value.

Xander Schauffele +450

The case for Schauffele at +450 is hard to make. Yes, he’s had a sensational year, but he’s not really shown his best stuff at Narashino before. He’s had a T10 and T9 thrown in around a T28 and T38, poor considering his stature and the limited-field numbers. (People forget his Olympic gold medal in Japan came from a different venue.) While it wouldn’t be a surprise if he won during his annual pilgrimage back to some of his family’s roots, jumping in at +450 seems overly aggressive.

Verdict: Wait and see.

Collin Morikawa +700

The defending champion also finished T7 in 2021, so he has runs on the board at the venue. He was second in the FedExCup, but at the end of the day is winless in 2024 so far. He did have seven top-fives though, and makes you think he has to be due. I hate the number but can absolutely see a back-to-back win. I would normally say wait until after Round 1 with these odds, but Morikawa is second in Round 1 Scoring this season. So it’s probably one where you jump in now if you love him.

Verdict: Pre-tournament ticket or pass altogether.

Hideki Matsuyama +800

The hometown hero was a winner in 2021 and will need to ride the wave of the crowd given he’s been resting since another loss in the Presidents Cup. He’s relying on his natural game if you go by this exchange from his pre-tournament press conference.

Question: “How did you prepare for this tournament?”

Matsuyama: “I didn’t do anything.”

At the end of the day, you can never write him off at home, but at +800 I’m looking for more positive talk!

Verdict: See where he sits through 36 holes.

Sungjae Im +1400

An intriguing option this week, given a third and T12 on his resume here. Im is overdue a win and fans of his will note he was one of the International Team members who stood up and performed in Canada during their loss to the U.S. Team. He had eight top 10s worldwide in 2024… Some call that trending.

Verdict: A sneaky good option.

Sahith Theegala +1800

Not a former major winner, but perhaps one in waiting. Theegala is coming off his first Presidents Cup appearance and brimming with confidence. Also was T7 defending in Napa and was third at the TOUR Championship. Add a previous T19 and T5 in Japan and I’m starting to see value in his odds among these peers. Schauffele is good, but is he over three times more likely to win this week than Theegala? I don’t believe so.

Verdict: I’m on board! My No. 1 outright pick.

Justin Thomas +2000

Is this the time the comeback really begins? Early in his career, Thomas was great at getting overseas in the fall and winning no-cut events. He went back-to-back at the CIMB Classic in Malaysia and won THE CJ CUP twice in three years in South Korea. We’ve seen him turn around his dismal 2023 with a very solid 2024, and his five top 10s were welcomed for sure. He is a former major winner…

Verdict: Value pick from the chalk.

Bonus

Gary Woodland (+4500): Just because he’s a former major winner who is under the +5000 longshot barrier. Woodland was fifth in 2019, playing with Tiger Woods down the stretch.

With the outright market now covered, where can we look elsewhere to find value? With international flights in the mix, the question becomes: Does current form still hold when you’ve got to go across the world to new time zones, or is a rested player one to watch?

Well, consider this history. There were 48 different players who have finished in the top 10 in the four events in Japan. Of those, 30 played the immediate week before. So 62.5% of the top 10 placeholders would have been from players who played the week before. That lopsided edge should already have you looking into players who were in Las Vegas last week in your place market plays. This is not to use for the outright, as only Matsuyama won having played the week before.

Taking it further, 15 of the players who ultimately cracked the ZOZO top 10 had top-25 results the week before, and nine had top 10s the week before. In other words, on average, just under four players from last week’s top 25 at TPC Summerlin are due to finish in the top 10 this week. Or just over two players on average from the top 10 in Las Vegas will back up and do it again this week.

Here are the players who finished in the top 25 last week and are in the field this week. (Those with an asterisk finished in the top 10, with their odds for a top 10 this week in parentheses.)

Which four are you going to lean on for a top-10 wager this week?

• *Kurt Kitayama (+188)
• Beau Hossler (+275)
• *Doug Ghim (+300)
• Maverick McNealy (+300)
• *Gary Woodland (+320)
• Andrew Putnam (+350)
• *Harry Hall (+350)
• Rickie Fowler (+375)
• *Rico Hoey (+375)
• Matt Kuchar (+400)
• Sam Stevens (+400)
• *K.H. Lee (+450)
• Mark Hubbard (+550)
• C.T. Pan (+550)
• Chad Ramey (+800)

For my wagers, I have to start with Ghim, the runner-up to J.T. Poston in Vegas. Despite facing tough wind conditions throughout the week in Las Vegas, he was the one who forced Poston to finish the job when it looked like he might cruise. That confidence is hard to pass up.

Hossler is my next choice at slightly worse odds. But folks might forget the fact he was T2 here a year ago and a decent T16 the year before. Add to that his recent FedExCup Fall exploits and I’m ready to give his run of form one more week at least.

Putnam, at +350, also merits a look given he was T2 in Japan in 2022 and of all these contenders his Strokes Gained: Approach game in recent weeks has been on point. The fact that he’s third in the field in SG: Approach across the last five starts and the fact he’s a former major winner leaves me to throw a feel-good shot at Woodland as my fourth at +320, given he finished fifth in 2019 in his only previous visit.

Now just for balance, here’s a top-10 option not from the Shriners field last week: Japan’s Takumi Kanaya at a juicy +500. A recent winner on the Japan Tour who backed it up with a fourth-place finish in the Japan Open two weeks ago, this former amateur standout was compared to Matsuyama at one point.

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