Benny and the Bets: To Kim or not to Kim in Vegas three-peat bid

Chugga chugga, chugga chugga, choo choo!

The Tom Kim train has rolled into Las Vegas seeking to continue his undefeated ways at TPC Summerlin, and while we haven’t seen a three-peat on TOUR at the same event since 2011, there is a more than decent chance Kim can join a high-powered club.

Already we’ve seen his odds shift from +1400 at opening to +1200 with BetMGM Sportsbook for the Shriners Children’s Open, the event he claimed in 2022 and 2023. Steve Stricker was the last player to win the same tournament in three consecutive years, taking the John Deere Classic title from 2009-2011. Before that, it was Kim’s hero Tiger Woods winning WGC events at Doral and in Akron (Ohio) from 2005-07.

Along with Woods and Stricker, the three-peat club houses names like Tom Watson, Jack Nicklaus, Arnold Palmer, Billy Casper, Johnny Miller, Ben Hogan and Gene Sarazen… giants of the sport. For Kim to join them would be a feat indeed.

Since Stricker, there have been 16 attempts to win three in a row at the same TOUR event. That list includes some recent near-misses, with Sam Burns finishing T6 at the 2023 Valspar Championship and Scottie Scheffler finishing T3 earlier this year at the WM Phoenix Open.

When he won in 2022, Kim became the second-youngest player to have won two PGA TOUR events, and when he repeated in 2023, he was the fourth youngest to earn three TOUR wins and the second youngest to defend a title.

As we try to decide whether another triumph is on the cards, let’s go deeper into the two wins.

In 2022, Kim had no bogeys in the tournament, becoming the first player at the time to win bogey-free since J.T. Poston at the 2019 Wyndham Championship. He also hit 87.5% of greens in regulation, the highest percentage by a winner at the Shriners Children’s Open since 2008. He was 100% in Scrambling to lead the field and ranked third in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and SG: Putting and fifth in SG: Approach. He also led in 3-Putt Avoidance, was perfect putting inside 5 feet and fourth putting inside 10 feet – plus ranked first in Front Nine Scoring and Par-3 Scoring.

In 2023 he notched up a personal-best record of 28 birdies or better for the week, tied for the most at TPC Summerlin since 2009. His birdie or better percentage on the par 4s was an incredible 43.2%, the best for any player at an event in the 2023 season. He ranked third in SG: Approach, fourth in SG: Putting, fifth in Driving Accuracy, fifth in approaches from 125-150 yards and first in One-Putt Percentage.

When we combine the two tournaments together, his only two appearances at the event, we see Kim’s SG: Putting at an insanely good +11.72, clearly the best of his young career for one course. His rounds of 68-68-62-66 in 2022 and 65-67-62-66 in 2023 give an incredible average of 65.5 and 64 for weekend play!

Clearly Kim is a horse for this course. In his eight rounds, he is +3.403 SG: Total, per round! The next best in the field is Adam Hadwin’s +2.164 from his last 20 rounds at the venue. Plenty of reasons to pick Kim. But what about the reasons against?

First, the basic scarcity of three-peats is a concern if you look into trends. But let’s also look into his form this season, which might pull back some of his comfortability at the course.

In his last six starts on the TOUR this season Kim has a runner-up, a T8 and a T15 but also a T50 (in a 70-man field) and two missed cuts. He enters off a 1-2-1 record in the Presidents Cup, looking to atone for another failed run at the Cup for the International Team.

His putting, the key to success at TPC Summerlin for the past two years, is currently below its best. In his last five tournaments, Kim is losing strokes (-0.368) on the greens. In fact, on the 2024 season, Kim ranks 111th in SG: Putting.

He’s also come back from a top 20 SG: Total player in 2022 and 2023 to 62nd on TOUR this season. He’s down from 29th in GIR to 106th. Kim also sits 135th in Approaches from 100-125 yards, a big distance this week, but he likely makes up for it being fourth from 125-150 yards, the most prevalent approach distance at TPC Summerlin. His scrambling, well, he ranks 124th this season.

When you combine these seeds of doubt with the low odds of +1200, I’m a wait-and-see advocate on Kim this week. If he gets off to a hot start, he becomes a very serious prospect indeed. If he doesn’t but you get better odds and he’s within reach, then you can make a call. And if he’s out of sorts, you dodged a bullet.

Instead, I’m looking to the man he beat a year ago to exact some revenge: Adam Hadwin. Only Kim has been better in terms of strokes gained at TPC Summerlin over the last five starts in Las Vegas.

Benny's betting card

Winner: Adam Hadwin (+3300) – Much like Mackenzie Hughes did after missing the 2022 Presidents Cup, I expect Hadwin to rebound from disappointment after missing Montreal with a statement performance. He was a runner-up last year and has a total of four top 10s here from his last five starts.

Top 10: Harry Hall (+375) – I had high hopes for Hall last week in the Utah desert before he faded Sunday to a T35 finish. I am going to call that round an anomaly and look for him to rebound into contention again. Three starts inside the top 26 here for the UNLV product.

Longshot: Matt NeSmith (+10000) – Current form (three missed cuts last four starts) stinks, but considering that only two-time winner Kim and my pick for this week in Hadwin have gained more strokes than NeSmith at TPC Summerlin over the last five starts there, the 100-to-1 odds become serviceable. Four top 20s at Summerlin in his last five starts.

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